ATP Race Update: Djokovic into the Finals; Fritz & Shelton nearly clinched as Auger-Aliassime threatens Musetti

Following the Asian Swing, the ATP Race has been updated, with the tour's main stars back in Europe for the final weeks of competition in indoor hardcourt tournaments. Novak Djokovic qualified for the ATP Finals last week, joining Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Five spots remain to be determined, with only a couple of tournaments left.

This week—with the ATP 500 Vienna Open and Basel Open—will be key for the Top-10 members who still have hopes of qualifying for the ATP Finals. Players like Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Ben Shelton seem to have a virtually assured spot in Turin, although others must maintain their rhythm if they don't want to lose their place.

The most pressured are Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti—who saw the titles won last week by Félix Auger-Aliassime at the European Open and Casper Ruud at the Stockholm Open put pressure on them. The Canadian and the Norwegian are among the players who can still secure their spot in the Finals, although they will need a good number of points in the final events.

The Russians Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev are others who remain in contention for a place in the ATP Finals, although next week's Paris Masters—the last Masters 1000 of the year—will be crucial.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic was the third player to qualify for the ATP Finals, tying Roger Federer's incredible record of 18 seasons qualifying among the eight best players of the season. The Serbian, who has had a reduced schedule like in recent seasons, focused his energy on the Grand Slams—reaching the semifinals at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the US Open. He won his 100th title at the Geneva Open and reached the Miami Open final among his main achievements. At 38 years old, his place in Turin is secure, although we will have to wait until the last minute to see if "Nole" confirms his participation or ends up withdrawing from the tournament.

Djokovic’s qualification (4,580 points) joins that of Alcaraz (11,040) and Sinner (8,500), both of whom qualified for the ATP Finals months ago. The Spanish World No. 1 is taking a break this week, having virtually secured the year-end World No. 1 ranking, while Sinner is competing at the Vienna Open this week. Both are expected to attend the Paris Masters next week, although there has been speculation about the possibility of them withdrawing from the tournament to rest before the Finals.

Alexander Zverev (4th, 4,280 points) is the closest to securing qualification, something he could achieve this very week with a good campaign in Vienna. Nevertheless, he maintains a good lead over Taylor Fritz (5th; 3,835 points) and Ben Shelton (6th; 3,720 points)—who are also aiming for the ATP Finals as their year-end goal.

Both Americans are at the Basel Open this week, and barring a disaster, they should not have major problems qualifying. Although they are currently a significant distance from the Qualification Cut (4,545 points)—this benchmark gradually decreases each week depending on the results of the players.

Until a few weeks ago, there was little discussion about who would secure the final spots for the ATP Finals—especially after the injury and season-end withdrawal of Jack Draper, who seemed a certainty for Turin. But things tightened after the last week of competition on the European indoors. Currently, Alex de Minaur (7th; 3,585 points) and Lorenzo Musetti (8th; 3,485 points) would occupy the last two spots in Turin, although some names are starting to threaten their position.

The champions from last week were precisely Félix Auger-Aliassime (9th; 3,145 points) at the European Open and Casper Ruud (11th, 2,735 points), both of whom remain hopeful of qualifying—or at least finishing the season in the Top-10. The Canadian has just over 300 points to make up on Musetti, so he needs to go deep in Basel and/or Paris to gain position. However, he has had a notable end to the year—with a 15-3 record since the Canadian Open—and comes off a win against Musetti at the Shanghai Masters two weeks ago.

The case of Ruud is a bit more complicated; even if he were crowned champion at the ATP 500 Basel this week, he would need to accumulate a few extra wins in Paris next week. Nevertheless, the Canadian and the Norwegian cannot be ruled out, as they have earned their place in the upper ranks of the standings in recent weeks. Other names that keep their possibility alive include Daniil Medvedev—recent champion of the Almaty Open last Sunday—Andrey Rublev, and Alexander Bublik, although all of them will have to aim for the title at the Paris Masters next week.