Holger Rune's Shanghai loss forces last-minute schedule change

Holger Rune decided to make changes to his calendar after the surprising exit in the Shanghai Masters quarterfinals. The 22-year-old Dane was having a great campaign at the penultimate Masters 1000 of the season, but ended up suffering a surprising defeat against World No. 204 Valentin Vacherot.

It was a golden opportunity for the Dane, who remains in the fight to finish the year inside the Top 10 and still has live chances to secure a spot in the ATP Finals—though the defeat in Shanghai will undoubtedly cost him dearly. This week, Rune defeated rivals like Ugo Humbert (21st) and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (32nd), but was ultimately surprised by the young Monegasque.

Rune is currently ranked No. 11 in the live rankings, and was just one victory away from definitely entering the Top 10. However, returning to the elite group will have to wait for the moment.

Everything seems to indicate that Rune hopes to add points in the final part of the year and that the Paris Masters—a tournament he won the title in 2022—is perhaps his biggest objective for closing the year well. It cannot be ruled out that Rune could secure a spot in the ATP Finals in Turin, although he will need great campaigns if he hopes to pull off a surprise.

In the ATP Race, Rune dropped to the 12th place with 2,490 points—still 415 points away from the Top 10 and about 1,000 points from securing a spot among the 8 best players of the season. Had he advanced a bit further in Shanghai, he would have narrowed the gap, but now everything is uphill for the former World No. 4 Dane.

This is why Rune accepted a wildcard from the Stockholm Open organization, where he will be the 1st seed and will join Casper Ruud (No. 12), Denis Shapovalov (No. 23), and Ugo Humbert (No. 25), among other big names on the Tour. After finishing his participation in Sweden, Rune will travel to the Basel Open—where he will be the 3rd seed—and will conclude his European commitments at the Paris Masters.

The Dane knows he faces an important points defense in the coming weeks, so a good performance in Stockholm is practically his only chance to enter the Top 10, considering that in Basel and Paris he defends semifinal appearances, so he will need several victories if he wants to add points and continue climbing the rankings.

The Stockholm Open—also known as the Nordic Open—is a traditional tournament that will experience its 56th edition on indoor hardcourts, in the week prior to Paris Bercy (the last Masters 1000 of the year, also on indoor hardcourt). The tournament suffered several high-profile withdrawals due to injuries, and desperately sought a high-profile replacement: Grigor Dimitrov, Cameron Norrie, and Tommy Paul—who had initially confirmed their presence—ended up pulling out of the tournament.

The tournament counts among its former champions players like Roger Federer (2010), Juan Martín Del Potro (2016, 2017), and Stefanos Tsitsipas (2018). Among the former champions who will compete are Shapovalov (’19) and Rune (’22). Neither the defending champion Paul (2021, ’24) nor the two-time runner-up Grigor Dimitrov (2017, 2024) will be present.

For Rune, this will be a good chance to accumulate wins and points in the final part of the year, with the opportunity to return to the Top 10 if he has a good performance. If the Dane reaches at least the final, he will total 3,240 points, surpassing Karen Khachanov.

If Rune reaches the final, he will enter the Top 10—but he will need Karen Khachanov not to reach the quarterfinals of the Almaty Open—a tournament played in parallel. Another formula for Rune to return to the Top 10 would involve winning the title and Khachanov not going beyond the semifinals in Kazakhstan.