Jannik
Sinner was the heavy favorite to win the Canadian Open title, especially after
the absences of
Novak Djokovic and
Carlos Alcaraz. However, the Italian fell in
the quarterfinals to Andrey Rublev, failing to defend the title he won in 2023.
The Italian
lost a significant number of points, narrowing the gap with Alcaraz and
Djokovic, putting his hold on the top ranking at risk in the coming weeks.
Sinner
Faces Ranking Pressure After Canadian Open Exit
For most of
the year, Sinner had comfortably held the No. 1 spot, as none of his rivals
could achieve results that brought them close enough to the Italian. However,
with the start of the hardcourt swing, we may see changes at the top of the
rankings.
Sinner is
set to lose 800 of the 1,000 points he earned at last year's Canadian Open,
bringing his total down to 8,770 points in the next ranking update. He will
have just over a 300-point lead over Djokovic (8,460), with less than 1,000
points separating him from Alcaraz.
Starting
Monday, the Cincinnati Open will take place without the defending champion
Novak Djokovic, who will lose 1,000 points when the tournament concludes. As
for Alcaraz, he finished as runner-up in 2023, so the only way for him to gain
points is by winning the title. However, Alcaraz needs to reach the
quarterfinals to secure the World No. 2 ranking, though he cannot yet aim for
No. 1, as Sinner is not defending points in Cincinnati, and there is no
mathematical way for Alcaraz to overtake him yet.
Cincinnati
could be a crucial event for Sinner if he hopes to remain No. 1. Without
defending points, it's a golden opportunity to widen the gap with his pursuers
and limit the risk of what could happen afterward at Flushing Meadows. There,
Djokovic is defending the title (2,000 points), while Alcaraz is defending the
semifinals (720 points). Sinner, on the other hand, only reached the fourth
round (180 points).
Given this,
Djokovic currently has no chance of reclaiming the No. 1 spot, even if he
defends his title at the US Open. Alcaraz, however, appears more threatening,
having won the last two Grand Slams and looking like the player in the best
form in recent months. He also knows what it takes to win the title at Flushing
Meadows, having done so back in 2021.
Depending
on their results in Cincinnati and the US Open, Alcaraz could potentially
snatch the No. 1 spot from Sinner once the fourth Grand Slam of the year
concludes. Sinner is guaranteed 8,590 points at the end of the US Open, plus
any additional points he may earn in upcoming tournaments, while Alcaraz could
reach a maximum of 9,640 points if he wins both the US Open and Cincinnati.