Jannik Sinner faces challenging months ahead to maintain World No. 1

Jannik Sinner will face a tough challenge in maintaining his world No. 1 ranking in the coming months following his quarterfinal exit at Wimbledon. The Italian was on a good run at the All England Club but fell to Daniil Medvedev in a five-set thriller, failing to defend the points he gained in 2023.

Meanwhile, the final from last year between Alcaraz and Djokovic was repeated with the same outcome. This allowed Sinner’s main contenders to defend their points and narrow the gap with the Italian. The 22-year-old is now preparing for a significant defence of points in the upcoming months.

The next challenge for top players like Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic will be the Olympic Games, starting in a week. On the clay courts of Roland Garros, players will aim for medals, providing a unique opportunity to see top singles players also competing in doubles for their countries.

The Olympic tournament does not award ATP points, so the top rankings will remain unchanged after the event. Currently, the player in the best position to overtake Sinner is world No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, who has won two Grand Slam titles in just over a month, earning a total of 4,000 points for the ranking. Sinner leads with 9,570 points, followed by Novak Djokovic (8,460) and Carlos Alcaraz (8,130).

The significant points defence begins in August with the Masters 1000 Canadian Open, followed by the Cincinnati Open in consecutive weeks. Later in the same month, the US Open will take place, where Djokovic defends his title.

From now until the end of the US Open, Sinner will defend 1,230 points, mainly due to his title in Canada. Djokovic will defend 3,000 points with titles at the Cincinnati Open and US Open. Alcaraz will defend 1,570 points, primarily from reaching the finals in Cincinnati and the semifinals at Flushing Meadows.

While it may seem that Sinner still holds a good lead over his contenders, he will be defending a substantial number of points throughout the rest of the season. When considering only the points accumulated in 2024 (Race), Sinner is just 250 points ahead of Alcaraz.

Former world No. 1 Boris Becker reflected on Sinner’s impressive rise over the past year and the challenge of maintaining that position: “I think Sinner is on the right track. He has been playing at a very high level for months now, and his greatest quality is consistency. If we focus on the last period, he hasn’t played a ‘bad match’ yet, touching wood.

“On the one hand, you can’t always win, but on the other, he always has a very high level, more than anyone else since the beginning of the year. So to surpass him, you have to do even better and that’s why this year he has only lost a couple of matches. There is the eternal debate about ‘good’ or ‘bad’ draws. To me, as a player and then as a coach, it has always seemed like a sterile discussion. It is the player who makes the draw a good draw.”

Sinner will defend his titles later in the season at the China Open and Vienna Open, as well as his final at the ATP Finals. In total, he has 3,370 points to defend until the end of the season, while Alcaraz will defend 2,170 points.