The Mexican Open quarterfinals left Denis Shapovalov and Tomas Machac as the main contenders still in the race. Both took advantage of their favourite status and seem poised to reach the ATP 500 final.
The Czech player eliminated Learner Tien in a rollercoaster match, while ‘Shapo’ came back from a set down against a solid Marcos Giron. Brandon Nakashima and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina also secured victories and will be the players to beat in the Acapulco semifinals.
Two players with growing expectations delivered a rollercoaster first set. Tomas Machac secured the first break in the third game, in a set marked by both players' struggles on serve, specially Learner Tien. There were five consecutive breaks, with four of them converted on the first break point. The American won only 41% of points on his first serve compared to Machac’s 50%, allowing the Czech to take the set 6-3.
In the second set, both players improved their serving efficiency—especially Tien, who started landing more first serves. However, Machac remained the steadier player and took control of the match with an early break. Although he dropped his serve when serving for the win at 5-4, he avoided a tiebreak and secured victory 6-3, 7-5. Far from his most convincing performance, Machac showed composure to prevail despite not being at his best.
Brandon Nakashima has quietly established himself in the upper ranks and is starting to show the conviction that led him to the Next Gen ATP Finals title back in 2022. The American dominated David Goffin with authority, winning 7-6(4), 6-2, firing 12 aces to his opponent’s one, and converting 5 of 11 break points compared to the Belgian’s 3 of 8.
Nakashima is back in the semifinals and will aim to reach his first final since 2022 when he claimed the San Diego Open title. At 23, the American seems to be coming into his own, securing his career-best ranking as world No. 33 while appearing to regain momentum in his career.
Milestone moment 🔓@b_nakashima defeats Goffin 7-6 6-2 to reach his first ATP 500 semi-final! #AMT2025 pic.twitter.com/e9XaUB6TEi
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 28, 2025
Denis Shapovalov is undoubtedly the player in the best form heading into the semifinals. An impressive streak of eight consecutive wins—including three against top-10 opponents—and a title victory at the Dallas Open just two weeks ago have filled him with confidence. He faced some difficulties against Marcos Giron in the quarterfinals but managed to turn the match around convincingly, winning 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.
The Canadian is now ranked No. 28 in the live rankings, two years after dropping out of the top 30 and battling multiple injuries. With the top seeds out of the tournament, Shapo is not only the highest-ranked player remaining but also the clear favourite for the title, given his current form.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has had an excellent week and continues a strong start to the year, already holding a 12-5 record in 2025. The Spaniard reached the Delray Beach final two weeks ago (losing to Miomir Kecmanovic) and had a respectable run to the fourth round of the Australian Open. This time, he defeated local 19-year-old star Rodrigo Pacheco, a former junior No. 1. Davidovich took control of the match from the start and secured a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 victory.
Once again, Davidovich is in a good position to reach a final. The former world No. 21 has never won an ATP title and has only two finals to his name. Against Shapovalov, he has just one prior meeting at the 2022 Indian Wells, where the Canadian won in three sets.
Semi-final bound 😜@alexdavidovich1 pushes past home favourite Pacheco Mendez 6-2 6-2. #AMT2025 pic.twitter.com/5BAyia6MLM
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) February 28, 2025