Novak Djokovic’s hopes of reaching the ATP Finals have suffered a significant setback after Jan-Lennard Struff stunned the Serbian in the second round of the Swiss Indoors Basel. Struff prevailed 6-7(4), 7-5, 7-6(5) after two hours and 36 minutes, ending Djokovic’s campaign just as he needed a deep run to strengthen his position in the Race to Turin.
The defeat is particularly costly because Rafael Jódar, the Spaniard occupying the final qualification position, had also been eliminated earlier on Thursday. Djokovic therefore had an opportunity to close the gap with a strong performance in Basel, but instead leaves Switzerland without adding the points that could have transformed his chances of returning to the season-ending championships.
With the Paris Masters now the final tournament offering ranking points before the ATP Finals, Djokovic faces a difficult task. He entered the week 319 points behind Jódar, and his elimination leaves him needing a substantial result in Paris while also depending on how his rivals perform. Although a place in Turin remains mathematically possible, there is little room for another early exit.
The qualification picture could still change in the coming days, particularly with Alex de Minaur competing in Vienna and Flavio Cobolli’s fitness uncertain after his tearful retirement against Matteo Berrettini. If Cobolli were ultimately unable to compete in Turin, that could affect the composition of the field, although no withdrawal has been confirmed. For now, Djokovic must focus on the points still available in Paris.
Struff stuns Djokovic in Basel thriller
Struff produced one of the most significant victories of his career, overcoming a player who had beaten him in each of their previous eight meetings. The German relied on aggressive baseline tennis and a powerful serve to prevent Djokovic from dictating the rallies, recording 27 aces during a match in which neither player managed to establish lasting control.
Djokovic edged a tight opening-set tiebreak 7-4, but Struff responded by raising his level in the second set. The German secured the decisive break to win 7-5 and force a decider, leaving the match finely balanced heading into the final stages. Both players continued to hold their nerve under pressure, setting up another tiebreak to determine who would advance to the quarter-finals.
Struff eventually prevailed 7-5 in the deciding tiebreak, sealing the biggest win of his tournament and ending Djokovic’s hopes of collecting valuable points in Switzerland. Speaking after the match, he explained that he knew he had to play aggressively to have a chance against the Serbian, describing himself as very happy with his performance.
For Djokovic, the loss means that his pursuit of a record-extending 19th ATP Finals appearance will be decided in Paris, assuming he competes there. The 39-year-old has qualified for the tournament 18 times, sharing the historical record with Roger Federer, and remains in contention despite the setback.
ATP Race after Djokovic’s Basel elimination
With Basel no longer an option, the Paris Masters represents Djokovic’s final opportunity to improve his position before the qualification race concludes. The tournament offers 1,000 points to the champion, with the number of points available decreasing at each stage.
Djokovic’s immediate target is to close the gap to Jódar, while also monitoring De Minaur, who is currently ahead of him and still competing in Vienna.
The table below shows the supplied Race standings following Djokovic’s elimination. The ninth position is particularly important because Jannik Sinner has withdrawn for the remainder of the season, leaving Jódar in the final qualifying position among the remaining contenders.
| Race Position | Player | Points | Current tournament status |
| 1 | ✓Alexander Zverev | 9,240 | Vienna – Quarter-finals |
| 2 | 7,950 | ||
| 3 | ✓Carlos Alcaraz | 4,700 | Vienna – Quarter-finals |
| 4 | ✓Ben Shelton | 4,520 | Basel – Quarter-finals |
| ATP Finals qualification cut | 3,785 | ||
| 5 | Daniil Medvedev | 3,710 | Vienna – quarter-finals |
| 6 | Flavio Cobolli | 3,680 | |
| 7 | Arthur Fils | 3,525 | Basel – Quarter-finals |
| 8 | Frances Tiafoe | 3,380 | |
| 9 | Rafael Jódar | 3,184 | |
| 10 | Alex de Minaur | 2,930 | Vienna – Quarter-finals |
| 11 | Novak Djokovic | 2,890 | |
| 12 | Taylor Fritz | 2,785 | Basel – Quarter-finals |
| 13 | Tommy Paul | 2,725 | Vienna – Quarter-finals |
The table reflects the supplied figures and tournament status at the time of Djokovic’s elimination. Live Race points and positions can change as the remaining matches are completed.
Winner Novak Djokovic of Serbia and runner-up Alex de Minaur of Australia communicate during the awarding ceremony for the men's singles final at the 2026 China Open
De Minaur is another player with an opportunity to improve his position before Paris. The Australian is only 40 points ahead of Djokovic in the supplied standings and remains in contention at the Vienna Open, where he faces Berrettini in the quarter-finals. A strong run could help him create separation from Djokovic and potentially challenge Jódar for the final qualifying position.
Cobolli’s situation is also worth monitoring. The Italian had been firmly in contention for his first ATP Finals appearance on home soil, but his injury-related retirement in Vienna has introduced uncertainty at a critical stage. If he were forced to withdraw from Turin, the field could change.
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Djokovic’s route is now straightforward in principle but difficult in practice: he must make a deep run at the Paris Masters and hope the results elsewhere work in his favour. A place in the final may be required depending on what Jódar and the other contenders achieve.
With 1,000 points available to the champion, the race is not over, but Djokovic has lost the opportunity to make his task easier in Basel.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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