Preview ATP Hamburg Open Final | Tommy Paul targets top-20 return against rising Ignacio Buse

Everything is set for the ATP 500 Hamburg Open final this Saturday, May 23, featuring a clash between experienced Tommy Paul and surprise finalist Ignacio Buse — or at least a relatively unknown name for much of the general audience, as the young Peruvian has been building a strong reputation on the Challenger circuit and in recent months has fully transitioned onto the ATP Tour.

The natural favourite is Paul, who returns to a final after a period disrupted by injuries earlier in the season. This is his third final of the year and his second on clay, following his title win at the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships in April. With more rhythm on the surface and a series of wins against high-level opponents, the American arrives in strong position to fight for the title just before French Open.

The American world No. 26 has dropped in the rankings in recent weeks, but his run in Hamburg has helped him recover ground and move close to a return to the top 20 — something he could achieve with the title on Saturday. He is chasing the sixth title of his career and the second of the season.

Paul started the week in dominant fashion, defeating compatriot Ethan Quinn while conceding only four games. In the second round he survived one of the most dramatic matches of his season, saving up to seven match points before overcoming Tomas Martin Etcheverry in a three-hour and 39-minute marathon decided across three tight tiebreaks.

That victory over Etcheverry appeared to be a key confidence boost, as Paul then eased past Daniel Altmaier in straight sets, before producing one of his most significant wins of the year in the semifinals, defeating Alex de Minaur in three sets.

Paul, who turned 29 earlier this week, arrives as the most experienced player in the final, having repeatedly handled high-pressure situations during the tournament — effectively “playing with nothing to lose” after surviving multiple match points early on. He is already guaranteed to rise to No. 21 in the rankings, while a title would move him up to No. 18.

Surprise finalist or not, Ignacio Buse has been producing strong results for several seasons, and in 2026 — now 22 years old — he appears to have reached the level required to consistently compete at the highest level. The Peruvian began the season ranked No. 100 and has already climbed to No. 57 in the ATP rankings.

His Hamburg campaign has pushed him further up to No. 36 in the live race, putting him in contention to be seeded in future Grand Slam events. A title here could even place him among the seeds at Wimbledon, a significant milestone for a player still establishing his position on tour.

Buse arrives after winning two Challenger titles on clay during the final months of 2025. Coming through qualifying this week, he opened his campaign with the biggest win of his career against No. 12 Flavio Cobolli. He followed that with an impressive victory over 2025 Miami Open champion Jakub Mensik, before defeating Ugo Humbert and Aleksandar Kovacevic.

The 22-year-old stands out for his movement on clay, combining a fighting style with strong tactical awareness that allows him to dominate long rallies on his preferred surface. He is capable of constructing points intelligently and is particularly dangerous with his backhand, which he uses to change rhythm, vary height, and attack when openings appear.

This is Buse’s first ATP-level final and his first at ATP 500 level, a major test of whether he is ready to make a further step in ranking and status. At 22, he is still relatively under the radar, but this run suggests he could emerge as the next major South American prospect on the tour.