Preview ATP Rio Open: Sebastian Baez aims to defend title against surprise finalist Alexandre Muller

The Rio Open final will feature defending champion Sebastian Baez against the surprise of the tournament: Alexandre Muller, the Frenchman chasing his first ATP 500 title.

While Baez started as one of the favourites, few would have predicted Muller's run to the final—especially considering he has taken down some big names, including Joao Fonseca and Francisco Cerúndolo, both Argentina Open finalists just a week ago.

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Baez seeks back-to-back Rio titles

One year ago, Baez (No. 31) defeated fellow Argentine Mariano Navone (6-2, 6-1) to claim his first ATP 500 title, becoming the second Argentine to win the Rio Open, following Diego Schwartzman in 2018. Baez has impressive clay-court credentials, boasting five titles on the surface and two additional finals.

Sebastian Baez won 3 of his 6 titles in the Golden Swing: Cordoba Open 23', Rio Open 24' and Chile Open 24'.

The former top-20 player has been dominant in Rio, eliminating three of his compatriots along the way: Roman Burruchaga (No. 137), Mariano Navone (No. 46), and Camilo Ugo Carabelli (No. 91). He also took down Tseng Chun-hsin (No. 128), who had earlier upset second seed Alejandro Tabilo.

As a clay-court specialist and defending champion, Baez is the clear favourite in the final, riding a nine-match winning streak in Rio. Since 2022, he has been one of the most consistent players in the Golden Swing, winning 18 of his last 21 matches in South America.

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Can Muller stun the defending champion Baez?

Alexandre Muller has struggled to establish himself on the ATP Tour, but his breakthrough week in Rio has already secured him a career-high ranking, breaking into the top 50 (No. 41 in the live rankings). A win in the final could even put him close to a seeded position for Indian Wells and Miami Open.

Earlier this year, the Frenchman captured his first ATP title, defeating none other than former world No. 4 Kei Nishikori at the Hong Kong Open—though that was on hard courts. His only previous clay-court final came at Marrakech 2023, where he lost to Roberto Carballés Baena.

Muller, who has spent much of his career on the Challenger Tour, is now preparing for the biggest match of his career, hoping to shock the defending champion. The 28-year-old has shown no fear in taking on higher-ranked opponents, having eliminated rising star Joao Fonseca, 8th seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry, and 4th seed Francisco Cerúndolo.

His semi-final matchup, which on paper seemed more balanced, saw him drop his first set of the tournament. However, he still prevailed against Francisco Comesaña, the Argentine who had earlier stunned Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals.

Muller will face, arguably, the biggest match of his career: can he dethrone Baez and claim his first ATP 500 title?

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