Race to World Number One: How Jannik Sinner can capitalise on Carlos Alcaraz's early defeat in Paris Masters to reclaim top spot

After ruling out the chance to end the year as world number one, Jannik Sinner has been given a lifeline after his arch-rival Carlos Alcaraz was defeated in his opening match at the Paris Masters against Cameron Norrie.

The Spaniard has endured a torrid time in this competition in the past, achieving just one measly win in his prior three visits. He was looking to tick off another Masters 1000 title in 2025 but this defeat leaves him on a commendable three triumphs. However, it is not a good way to be entering the ATP Finals, which is also being played on indoor hardcourts.

This setting is something that Sinner has relished for some time now, having won his previous 21 matches. He will make it 22 with a win over Zizou Bergs in his second-round clash in Paris, all the while closing in on the stranded Alcaraz at the top, unable to add to his tally of ranking points. If Sinner can continue his ominous hardcourt form up, then there is a chance that the race for the number one spot can prolong in 2025.

It is a very simple equation for the Italian: win the title return to number one. After enjoying a prominent period on the top, his US Open final defeat allowed a resurging Alcaraz to pip that spot back. These final few months were about bolstering his position on top with Sinner about to weather an influx of points being extracted from his current tally. Most notably, this would come from his ATP Finals triumph, which is the reason why he will not go to Turin as the number one.

Alcaraz sits on top, for now, with 11,250. Sinner lurks behind with 10,510, poised to make his move. This is one of the events that the 24-year-old has the luxury of not defending anything from having not featured in Paris last year. Only a win wil be enough for Sinner to clamber back on top, with the 1000 ranking points pushing him up to 11,500. If this happens, Sinner will return to number one on Monsay, 10th November.

After Paris, the Moselle Open and Hellenic Championship cap off the season for many stars, with the 250 events the final competitions before the ATP Finals. Neither Alcaraz or Sinner have put their names down for the events in France or Greece, preparing for Turin.

On Monday, 17th November, Sinner will see the 1,500 points he collected from winning last year's event undefeated being swiped away from his collection, seeing him drop back down behind Alcaraz who will be on 10,310 points. He will only have 200 points sacrificed after failing to get out of the group phase. Sinner will need a similar scenario to last year if he wants to go into 2026 as the world number one, relying on the 22-year-old's indoor hardcourt form to not be at the remarkably high standards he sets himself.

If Sinner wins the Paris Masters, he will traverse to Turin with 10,000 ranking points after the 1,500 had been taken off, 310 behind Alcaraz. Winning the event without being defeated seems like the most likely way Sinner will take back the number one spot, unless Alcaraz endures a horror-show and fails to win any matches.

Whatever happens, if Sinner does pip Alcaraz to top spot, he will be under a lot of pressure at the start of the year, with 2,000 points on the line for his Australian Open triumph. If defended successfully, he then has a free run on his rival, with Sinner being suspended for three months. Playing in the events he missed through suspension will help him claw the gap back or even extend his lead, leaving him in a healthy position in the future. However, the main focus is now, with Sinner eyeing up a chance.