US Open 2026: From Alcaraz and Sinner to the biggest dark horses, 10 questions remain
ATPSaturday, 08 August 2026 at 02:30
The 2026 US Open is approaching with more questions than answers. Carlos Alcaraz is still trying to return from a four-month injury absence, Iga Swiatek is fighting to rediscover her best level, Aryna Sabalenka is under pressure to defend her title and Novak Djokovic is chasing another piece of history.
Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek, Naomi Osaka and the American contenders all arrive with major questions surrounding their chances in New York. Injuries, ranking pressure, recent breakthroughs and difficult draws could all shape the tournament before the first ball is even struck. These are the biggest unanswered questions that could define the 2026 US Open.
The main US Open questions
| Player/story | Main question | Current outlook |
| Serena Williams | Will she play? | Huge wildcard |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Can he return in time? | Major question mark |
| Iga Swiatek | Can she rediscover her best? | Under pressure |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Can she defend her title? | Favourite, but vulnerable |
| Novak Djokovic | Can he win No. 25? | Genuine contender |
| Naomi Osaka | Can she win another Slam? | Dangerous outsider |
| Alexandra Eala | Can she make another breakthrough? | Major dark horse |
| American men | Can they end the drought? | Strongest chance in years |
| Alexander Zverev | Can he challenge Sinner? | Needs a statement run |
| Rafael Jódar | Is he ready for the elite? | Breakout candidate |
1. Can a player who hasn't competed since April really defend the US Open?
Carlos Alcaraz looked unstoppable at the start of the 2026 season, completing the career Grand Slam by winning the Australian Open and lifting his seventh major title. But a wrist injury in Barcelona at the end of April abruptly ended his momentum, forcing him to withdraw from the tournament and subsequently miss both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
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The expectation was that the Spaniard would return at the Cincinnati Open, but he withdrew from the tournament just days ago, extending an absence that has now lasted nearly four months. As the defending US Open champion, Alcaraz remains one of the favourites on paper, but his actual level remains one of the biggest mysteries heading into New York.
Will his right wrist be fully recovered for the demands of five-set matches and a two-week Grand Slam? Can he immediately return to the level that made him the dominant player of the first months of the season, or will he need time to find his rhythm again? The draw could become especially important, with dangerous unseeded opponents and emerging dark horses capable of testing him early.
Alcaraz has the quality to survive the opening rounds even without playing his best tennis, but a difficult early matchup could dramatically change the outlook of his title defence. If he reaches the second week, however, he may have accumulated enough match rhythm to challenge the tournament favourites once again.
US Open verdict: Huge question mark. Alcaraz remains one of the favourites on talent alone, but arriving without a single warm-up match could make his title defence far more difficult than expected.
Alcaraz is the defending champion, but will not play any warm-up matches before the tournament. His last appearance was at the Barcelona Open in April.
2. Is Swiatek's dominance really gone?
The last two seasons have been surprisingly uneven by Iga Swiatek’s standards. She has remained a permanent presence among the elite and inside the top 10, but she has not looked like the dominant force that controlled the tour for several years. She enters the North American hard-court swing with a realistic chance of dropping out of the top 10, while defending a title in Cincinnati and a quarter-final showing at the US Open.
Those are not easy results to replicate given her recent performances. Yet Swiatek has already shown that she can still surprise everyone when the pressure is highest. She entered Wimbledon with doubts surrounding her form and then captured the title, winning the one major that had previously seemed the least suited to her game.
The Polish star is a former US Open champion and remains one of the strongest hard-court players in the world when she is confident. The concern is that she has not reached a final since October 2025, and she appears far more vulnerable than she did during her peak years.
The US Open could become a defining moment for the six-time Grand Slam champion. She still has time to turn her 2026 season around, but New York may provide the clearest answer yet about whether she is ready to re-establish herself as one of the dominant players on the WTA Tour.
US Open verdict: A defining tournament. Wimbledon proved Swiatek can still win the biggest matches, but another early exit in New York would raise serious questions about whether she has truly returned to her former level.
3. Can American men's tennis finally end the 23-year wait?
American men’s tennis has been waiting for a home Grand Slam champion for more than two decades. Since Andy Roddick lifted the US Open trophy in 2003, no American man has won the tournament, and only three have reached the final: Andre Agassi in 2005, Roddick in 2006 and Taylor Fritz in 2024.
The opportunity feels real again. Recent seasons have produced increasingly strong US Open campaigns from players such as Fritz, Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul, but none of them has been able to finish the job. The depth of American men’s tennis is stronger than it has been in years, yet the title continues to remain out of reach.
Fritz appears to have the strongest case after reaching last year’s final, while Shelton and Frances Tiafoe have both reached the semi-finals in New York before. Tommy Paul has also shown the ability to make deep runs at major tournaments and remains dangerous on hard courts.
The younger generation is led by 20-year-old Learner Tien, whose long-term potential is undeniable, although he may still need more consistency before entering the conversation as a serious title contender. Whether it is Fritz, Shelton, Tiafoe or another breakthrough American, the question remains the same: will this finally be the year that the drought ends?
Who has the best chance?
- Taylor Fritz
- Ben Shelton
- Frances Tiafoe
- Tommy Paul
- Learner Tien
Fritz and Shelton will be the biggest local hopes in the men's draw.
4. Is Naomi Osaka finally ready to win another Grand Slam?
Naomi Osaka has experienced almost every possible chapter of a modern tennis career. She became world No. 1 and won four Grand Slam titles between 2018 and 2021, then endured a ranking drop, a break from the tour for mental health reasons and a year away from competition following the birth of her daughter.
Since returning two seasons ago, Osaka has gradually worked her way back toward the top of the game. The closest she came to a full return to elite status was last year, when she reached the Canadian Open final and the US Open semi-finals, producing her strongest stretch of tennis in several seasons.
Her recent campaigns at Roland Garros and Wimbledon have shown that her shot-making, power and competitive instincts remain intact. She has lost only to elite opponents — Aryna Sabalenka in Paris, Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon and Alexandra Eala in Washington — suggesting that the level is there even if the results have not yet produced another major title.
Osaka will not enter the US Open as the outright favourite, but she remains one of the most dangerous players in the draw. As the No. 13 seed, she could face one of the top contenders such as Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina or Jessica Pegula as early as the fourth round. Even if she falls short of the title, Osaka has the ability to beat anyone on hard courts and could become one of the players who completely reshapes the tournament during the second week.
Osaka reached the 2025 US Open semifinals, but lost to Amanda Anisimova.
5. Can Djokovic physically survive the final three rounds?
Every Grand Slam begins with the same question: can Novak Djokovic still challenge for another major title? Since winning his 24th Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open, the Serbian has played 11 major main draws, reaching at least the semi-finals in eight of them, although he has advanced to only two finals.
His ability to make deep runs remains unquestioned. Most recently, he reached another Wimbledon semi-final before falling to Jannik Sinner in a disappointing performance. The most likely scenario is still that a healthy Djokovic will reach the latter stages of a major tournament, and outside of Sinner and Alcaraz he remains a favourite against almost anyone in the draw.
The challenge comes later. To beat Sinner, Alcaraz or even Alexander Zverev, Djokovic will likely need a smooth path through the early rounds, avoiding long and physically draining matches. In recent seasons, he has often produced a brilliant victory over a top opponent only to fade physically in the next round against Sinner or Alcaraz.
Can he change that pattern this time, or will the US Open become another example of the same late-career story?
Djokovic has won four US Open titles (2011, 2015, 2018 and 2023).
6. How deep can Alexandra Eala go at the US Open?
The time has come for Alexandra Eala to prove that her recent rise is more than a breakthrough stretch. The Filipina has always attracted attention and fan support, but what was missing were sustained, high-level results against elite opponents.
She has delivered exactly that over the last two months: a WTA 125 title in Birmingham, her first WTA 500 semi-final in Berlin, her first Grand Slam fourth-round appearance at Wimbledon and her first WTA 500 title at the DC Open. During that span she defeated five top-10 players and several established stars, climbing into the top 20 for the first time in her career.
The question now is whether she can make a truly deep run at a Grand Slam. She may not be a leading title favourite yet, but her ambitions will be significantly higher than they were a year ago. Because she is not currently inside the top 16, she could also become one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, potentially facing a top seed as early as the third round.
US Open verdict: Dark horse with serious upside. Eala is no longer simply the exciting youngster everyone expects to break through one day. She has already beaten the biggest names — and New York could be where she announces herself on the Grand Slam stage.
Alex Eala will be looking to achieve a milestone in Grand Slam tournaments. Her best result so far was reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon in July, 2026.
7. Can Zverev finally close the gap on Sinner?
The top two seeds enter the US Open as the leading contenders, but not necessarily on equal terms. Jannik Sinner remains the clear world No. 1 and arrives as the reigning Wimbledon champion, with an astonishing run of 34 consecutive Masters 1000 victories that was interrupted only by his decision to skip the Canadian Open for physical management.
Zverev, meanwhile, entered Canada as the top seed in Sinner's absence and was immediately eliminated by Tallon Griekspoor. It was another disappointing defeat at a tournament where the spotlight was firmly on him. His task now is to prove that he can genuinely challenge Sinner over the course of a major tournament.
The German's recent European summer was the strongest of his career, with a Roland Garros title and a Wimbledon final, showing a level of consistency that cannot be questioned. The issue is whether that consistency is enough to overcome the player who has become the dominant force on hard courts.
Alcaraz's return adds another fascinating layer, as he enters as the No. 3 seed, making a Sinner-Alcaraz semi-final possible for the first time in a long time. Before the tournament begins, however, Sinner appears to hold the clearest edge over Zverev.
Verdict: Sinner still has the edge. Zverev has produced the consistency needed to challenge him, but until he proves he can beat Sinner deep in a Grand Slam, the world No. 1 remains the clear favourite.
Jannik Sinner won his fifth Grand Slam title at Wimbledon and will be looking for his third US Open title.
8. Can Aryna Sabalenka really afford to lose the US Open?
Aryna Sabalenka has been the most consistent player on the WTA Tour this season, producing deep runs at almost every tournament she has entered and winning three titles, including the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami. Yet she has not won a Grand Slam in 2026, and that is beginning to create additional pressure.
She entered every major this year as one of the leading favourites but fell short each time: finalist at the Australian Open, quarter-finalist at Roland Garros and fourth-round loser at Wimbledon. As the two-time defending US Open champion, anything less than another title run in New York would feel like a major disappointment.
The stakes are even higher because her world No. 1 ranking is under threat. Elena Rybakina has the first opportunity to overtake her, while Jessica Pegula and even Mirra Andreeva could also enter the conversation with a strong North American swing.
Still, Sabalenka's record at Flushing Meadows remains extraordinary. She is a two-time defending champion, has reached three consecutive US Open finals and at least the semi-finals in each of the last five editions, compiling a 29-3 record at the tournament since 2021. Her last defeat in New York came in the 2023 final against Coco Gauff after leading by a set.
Aryna Sabalenka with her 2025 US Open trophy
9. Is a new challenger finally emerging in the men's game?
For the last few years, men’s tennis has been dominated by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have split most of the biggest titles between them. Novak Djokovic remains an eternal contender, while Alexander Zverev has stayed close to the top of the game, but the sport is still waiting for the arrival of a new generation of players capable of consistently challenging the two leaders.
Several names have shown flashes of becoming serious threats, but none have fully established themselves as true Grand Slam contenders yet. Ben Shelton, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur have all reached the top-10 and proven they can produce deep runs, but they have not yet convinced as players ready to challenge for major titles. Others such as Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Casper Ruud still carry the experience and pedigree of previous seasons, although they currently appear closer to the chasing pack than to the favourites.
The next wave continues to produce exciting names. Flavio Cobolli, Alexander Bublik, Jiří Lehečka and Valentin Vacherot have all collected notable wins against top players, but they are still searching for the consistency needed to go beyond quarter-final runs at the biggest tournaments. Meanwhile, players like Jack Draper and Holger Rune have seen their progress interrupted by injuries and limited time on court.
One of the most fascinating cases is Rafael Jódar. At just 19 years old, the Spaniard has made one of the fastest climbs in recent ATP history, moving from outside the top 100 into the top 15 in only a matter of three months.
Rafael Jodar (ESP) during his third round match at the 2026 Roland-Garros tournament in Paris
For comparison, Alcaraz needed eight months to go from outside the top 100 to the top 30, Nadal 11 months and Sinner 17 months — while Jódar achieved a similar leap in just five weeks. After reaching his first Grand Slam quarter-final at Roland Garros and winning his first ATP title in Marrakech before reaching his first ATP 500 final in Washington, the question is whether he is already ready to challenge the established stars or still needs more experience.
Arthur Fils and Jakub Menšík remain two other young players who, when healthy, have shown top-10 potential, while João Fonseca continues to develop as another teenager expected to fight for the biggest stages in the future.
10. Will Serena Williams really play the US Open?
Serena Williams’ potential return at the US Open remains one of the biggest unanswered questions heading into Flushing Meadows. The 23-time Grand Slam champion has not played a singles match at the tournament since 2022, but all signs point toward the American legend considering another appearance in front of her home crowd, four years after her last run at the event.
Her comeback at Wimbledon showed both the challenge and the possibilities. Williams was unable to continue in the doubles event due to a physical issue and later lost to Maya Joint in singles, but she still showed that, even at 44 years old and far removed from her peak level, she remains capable of competing against WTA opposition. The goal in New York would not be to replicate the dominance of her prime years, but to create another memorable moment on the biggest stage.
Serena Williams was eliminated at Wimbledon first round.
Serena’s history at the US Open makes any appearance immediately special. She is a six-time champion in New York, with her last title coming in 2014, and she has repeatedly delivered some of the most iconic moments of her career at the tournament. The combination of experience, crowd support and the pressure she creates on opponents could still make her a dangerous unseeded player if she receives a wildcard and enters the main draw.
A deep run would be a major surprise given her limited recent competition, but Williams has built her career on exceeding expectations. If she steps onto the court at Flushing Meadows, the question will not only be how far she can go, but whether she can once again remind the tennis world why she remains one of the most feared competitors in history.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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