The US Open hierarchy is changing fast: Who's rising and who's collapsing?

The first tournaments of the North American hard-court swing have already started reshaping the US Open picture. Some players have arrived in New York with confidence soaring after breakthrough results, while others have seen injuries, poor form or early defeats leave them facing major questions before the year's final Grand Slam.

Alexandra Eala, Taylor Fritz and Rafael Jodar are among the players who have strengthened their cases in recent weeks, building momentum with major victories and impressive runs, while others such as Zheng Qinwen and Tommy Paul have seen their confidence tested heading into the final Grand Slam of the season.

With Flushing Meadows approaching, every result carries extra weight. Some players have positioned themselves as dangerous threats for the draw, while others need a strong final push to avoid arriving in New York with doubts. These are the names whose US Open chances have changed the most after hardcourts return.

Alexandra Eala produced perhaps the best week of her career at the DC Open, capturing her first WTA 500 title after an outstanding campaign. The Filipina defeated several high-profile opponents, including Elina Svitolina, Naomi Osaka and Jessica Pegula, on her way to the trophy, a run that also propelled her into the top 20 for the first time in her career this Monday.

Eala has gradually evolved from a promising young prospect into a serious name on the WTA Tour, building momentum over several seasons. She had already shown her potential during the grass-court swing, winning a WTA 125 title and reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon. However, the next step was proving she could compete consistently against the best players, and her WTA 500 breakthrough represents a major milestone.

Heading into the US Open, Eala will look to confirm that she belongs among the elite. With confidence at an all-time high and a growing reputation on hard courts, the Filipina arrives in New York with the opportunity to build on her Wimbledon breakthrough and establish herself as a permanent presence at the top level of the sport.

US Open verdict: One of the most dangerous players in the draw. Her breakthrough hard-court title and growing confidence make her a genuine second-week contender, regardless of where she lands in the draw.

American Taylor Fritz claimed the DC Open title after a remarkable week in which he once again showed his quality and consistency at the highest level. The American reached his fourth final in his last three tournaments, quickly rediscovering his form after spending months away from competition due to injury. Since returning, Fritz has been impressive, making up for lost time with a series of strong performances.

The return to hard courts and the North American swing could provide one of the biggest opportunities for Fritz, whose game has traditionally matched perfectly with these conditions. At the DC Open, he captured the 11th title of his career and his fifth on hard courts, with four of those coming in the United States.

The 2024 US Open runner-up will enter the upcoming weeks with major expectations as he looks to defend his position among the world’s best. Fritz will be fighting to maintain his place in the top 10 and remain the leading American player heading into the final Grand Slam of the season.

US Open verdict: Trending towards genuine title contention. Few players are more comfortable on North American hard courts, and another deep run looks increasingly likely if she maintains her current level.

World No. 3 Jessica Pegula fell short in her DC Open campaign after losing the final against Alexandra Eala. The match was heavily affected by rain interruptions, as Pegula won the opening set before play was suspended early in the second set and could not resume until the following day. The break appeared to disrupt her momentum, and she was unable to replicate the level she had shown throughout the week, eventually finishing runner-up to an inspired Eala.

Despite the defeat, Pegula once again showed why she remains one of the most dangerous players on hard courts. She reached the final without dropping a set and maintained her place among the top three players in the WTA rankings. As a four-time WTA 1000 champion on hard courts, with several additional finals at that level, Pegula enters the North American swing with strong confidence.

With conditions that perfectly suit her game, 2026 could represent another major opportunity for the American to chase the Grand Slam title that has remained the biggest missing achievement of her career. Based on her current form and history on the surface, she will be among the players to watch during the biggest hard-court tournaments of the summer.

US Open verdict: Trending towards genuine title contention. Few players are more comfortable on North American hard courts, and another deep run looks increasingly likely if she maintains her current level.

Rafael Jodar has been one of the biggest revelations of the 2026 season on the ATP Tour. The young Spaniard enjoyed an incredible clay-court swing that included quarter-final runs in Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, but he has also proven that his level can translate to hard courts. In fact, Jodar was the 2024 US Open junior champion, and his latest performances have reinforced the idea that he can become a major force on the surface.

At the DC Open, Jodar continued his impressive rise by reaching his first ATP 500 final after defeating players such as Arthur Fils, Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo. The final against Taylor Fritz highlighted the difference between his talent and the experience of an established top player, but the run itself represented another major step in his development.

Jodar can take plenty of positives from the week, including breaking into the ATP top 15 for the first time. There will be significant attention on his US Open campaign, as the 19-year-old continues to improve every week and his ceiling remains unknown. Could he become one of the players capable of challenging Jannik Sinner’s dominance on hard courts? His progress suggests that possibility cannot be ignored.

US Open verdict: No longer just a rising star—he's becoming a genuine threat. Another breakthrough run has confirmed that few players will want to face the teenager in the early rounds.

Naomi Osaka’s potential has never been questioned. The four-time Grand Slam champion has already proven she can compete with the best players in the world, although recent seasons have often raised questions about her confidence, consistency and physical condition rather than her ability.

After a promising grass-court swing, Osaka continued building momentum at the DC Open, where she reached the semi-finals before losing to eventual champion Alexandra Eala. Along the way, she collected wins over players such as Ashlyn Krueger and Elisabetta Cocciaretto, continuing to show signs that she is finding a more consistent level.

The former world No. 1 appears to have rediscovered a stronger competitive rhythm at this stage of her career, and the North American hard-court swing remains the ideal environment for her game. After reaching the Canadian Open final and US Open semi-finals in 2025, Osaka arrives in 2026 with another opportunity to make a deep run and potentially challenge for another major title. This stretch of the season could be one of the most important moments of her comeback.

US Open verdict: Quietly rebuilding into a serious contender. If her upward trajectory continues through Canada and Cincinnati, Osaka could once again become one of the biggest stories at Flushing Meadows.

Zheng Qinwen’s difficult stretch continued at the DC Open, where she suffered another early exit against eventual champion Alexandra Eala. While losing to an inspired opponent is hardly a major concern by itself, the defeat extended a worrying run for the Chinese star, who has repeatedly struggled to find deep runs in recent months.

Zheng has won just four of her last 13 matches, and her ranking has continued to slide as a result. After her Washington campaign, she dropped to world No. 125 and was forced to compete in qualifying at the Canadian Open, where she was eliminated in the first round by Thailand’s Lanlana Tararudee.

Her next challenge will come again through qualifying at the Cincinnati Open, before potentially facing another battle to reach the US Open main draw unless she receives a wildcard. However, that possibility appears unlikely given the preference traditionally given to rising American players and the presence of former Grand Slam champions such as Bianca Andreescu and Sofia Kenin also looking for opportunities. At just 23 years old, Zheng is experiencing the most inconsistent period of her career and needs a quick turnaround.

US Open verdict: Time is running short to turn her season around. Unless she quickly rediscovers her confidence, Zheng faces arriving in New York without momentum and potentially outside the main draw.

Tommy Paul suffered a surprising first-round defeat at the DC Open against Kamil Majchrzak, ending his return to hard courts earlier than expected. The American has traditionally been one of the strongest performers during the North American summer swing, making the result a disappointing start to a key period of the season.

While there is no reason for major concern yet, Paul showed some issues with his serve and consistency. He landed just 55% of his first serves and constantly faced pressure, allowing 11 break points throughout the match, although Majchrzak converted only two of those opportunities.

When he finds his rhythm, the world No. 21 has the ability to make deep runs at Grand Slam tournaments, especially at the US Open. However, he will need to quickly build momentum in Canada and Cincinnati to avoid a ranking drop and arrive in New York with the confidence required to compete against the best.

US Open verdict: Needs a response before the US Open. One disappointing week won't define his summer, but he needs strong results in Montreal and Cincinnati to restore confidence and protect his ranking.

Defending champion Leylah Fernandez suffered an early setback at the DC Open, losing in the second round to Alexandra Eala. The Canadian became another victim of the Filipina’s impressive run, but the defeat also highlighted Fernandez’s recent struggles, with the former US Open finalist winning just two of her last nine matches.

Fernandez will now look to rediscover her best level during the Canadian swing, where she has historically enjoyed strong support from the home crowd. The 23-year-old recently dropped out of the top 30 and faces the possibility of entering the US Open unseeded unless she can collect important victories in Toronto and Cincinnati.

With her aggressive left-handed game and proven ability to challenge elite opponents, Fernandez remains a dangerous player. However, her current form leaves questions about whether she can recreate the level that carried her to a Grand Slam final in 2021.

US Open verdict: Facing an increasingly important few weeks. With her seeding under threat, every victory before New York could make the difference between a favourable draw and another brutal early test.

Frances Tiafoe has often been one of the biggest names during the North American hard-court swing, with home support frequently helping him elevate his level at important moments. This time, however, the start of the summer has gone in the opposite direction.

After a promising grass-court season, Tiafoe suffered a surprise opening-round defeat at the DC Open against Terence Atmane. The American showed signs of recovery in Montreal, where he battled past Marin Cilic in a confidence-building victory, but he still has work to do before his biggest tournament of the summer arrives.

Currently ranked world No. 20, Tiafoe remains a dangerous opponent at Flushing Meadows, where he reached the semi-finals in 2022. However, his ranking position could create a difficult draw, potentially exposing him to a top-10 opponent as early as the fourth round. If he wants realistic title ambitions, he will need to find consistency quickly.

US Open verdict: Still dangerous—but searching for momentum. Tiafoe has repeatedly produced his best tennis in New York, yet he'll need a much stronger finish to the hard-court swing to arrive as a genuine contender.

Emma Navarro is another American player searching for answers ahead of the US Open. The world No. 28 suffered a second-round defeat at the DC Open against Elisabetta Cocciaretto after a victory over former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin, and her struggles continued in Montreal, where she was eliminated in the first round by teenager Alina Korneeva.

Navarro’s rise was one of the biggest stories of the 2024 season, highlighted by her run to the US Open semi-finals. However, her recent results have been far less convincing, with inconsistent performances at Grand Slam and WTA 1000 events over the last two seasons.

At her best, Navarro’s movement, defensive skills and tactical intelligence make her a difficult opponent. But with the US Open approaching, returning to the second week of a major would currently represent a significant challenge given her recent form.

With Cincinnati still to come before the US Open draw is finalized, the picture could change again. But after the opening weeks of the hard-court swing, these players have already done the most to either boost—or damage—their chances of making a deep run in New York.

US Open verdict: Under growing pressure to rediscover her best level. Her ranking still commands respect, but recent results mean another second-week appearance currently looks far from guaranteed.

With Cincinnati still to come before the US Open draw is finalized, the picture could change again. But after the opening weeks of the hard-court swing, these players have already done the most to either boost—or damage—their chances of making a deep run in New York.