Nightmare draw: The 10 US Open floaters who could wreck the favourites' title hopes
Tennis NewsThursday, 06 August 2026 at 00:30
Every year the US Open draw produces at least one nightmare first-round matchup. A top seed opens against a player ranked outside the top 32 who is far better than their ranking suggests—and suddenly the tournament changes before the first week is over. In 2026, the list of dangerous floaters may be stronger than ever.
These are the players the favourites won’t want to see in their section of the draw. Some are rising teenagers, others are former top names trying to rebuild their careers, and a few have already shown they can beat elite opponents on the biggest stages. None will be among the leading contenders on paper, but all have the potential to make life very uncomfortable for the top-ranked players in New York.
Why nobody wants them - US Open
| Player | Why nobody wants them | Biggest weapon | Why dangerous |
| Matteo Berrettini | Former Slam finalist | Serve + forehand | Huge experience |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Former top-5 | All-court game | Ranking misleading |
| Lilli Tagger | Teenage star | One-handed backhand | Fearless |
| Daria Snigur | Confidence | Counterpunching | Big-match wins |
| Ignacio Buse | Hamburg champion | Heavy forehand | Huge upside |
| Eva Lys | Returning | Aggressive baseline | Better than ranking |
| Nikola Bartunkova | Rising Czech | Big serve | Momentum |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | Fighter | Consistency | Loves big matches |
| Martin Landaluce | Spanish talent | Shotmaking | Massive ceiling |
| Raphael Collignon | Giant killer | Confidence | Loves upsets |
Future stars
Lilli Tagger
Few teenagers in the world are generating more excitement than Lilli Tagger. The Austrian arrives as world No. 47 and the youngest player in the top 100. At just 18 years old, she is already attracting attention on the WTA Tour, particularly because of her elegant one-handed backhand, which has earned comparisons with fellow Austrian Dominic Thiem.
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Tagger has made a remarkably fast transition from the junior circuit after competing primarily in junior events in 2025. She won the girls' singles title at the 2025 French Open and now enters the US Open looking for her first main-draw Grand Slam victory.
She will be unseeded in New York, making only her third Grand Slam main-draw appearance, but she arrives with significant momentum after capturing her first WTA 250 title in Prague at the end of July. That run included a dramatic victory over two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejcikova.
Still developing her game, Tagger has already established herself as one of the most exciting young prospects in women's tennis and could become one of the players leading the resurgence of the one-handed backhand on tour.
Nikola Bartunkova
Another product of the seemingly endless Czech production line of talent, Nikola Bartunkova has quickly established herself among the rising names in the top 100. The 20-year-old has produced several standout performances over the last year and has shown she can compete on the biggest stages.
This season she reached the third round of both the Australian Open and Wimbledon, recording her first top-10 victory against Belinda Bencic and also defeating Peyton Stearns and Katerina Siniakova in London. She continued that momentum in Montreal, where she opened her campaign with impressive wins over Bianca Andreescu and Clara Tauson.
Standing 1.84 meters tall, Bartunkova possesses a powerful serve, a heavy backhand, and remarkable composure in important moments. Comfortable on multiple surfaces and improving rapidly, she looks like a player who could soon become a regular source of upsets against the tour's biggest names.
Martin Landaluce
Martin Landaluce has enjoyed a rapid rise over the last year and, at just 20 years old, still has enormous room for improvement. This season he reached the quarterfinals in both Madrid and Rome, as well as the third round of Roland Garros.
The Spaniard is still looking to prove that he can sustain that level on hard courts, but his natural talent and shot-making ability have already drawn significant attention. Ranked No. 64, he enters the North American swing on a four-match losing streak, yet his upside remains obvious.
Landaluce has already gained valuable experience against elite opponents and looks like another member of Spain's next generation capable of producing a major breakthrough.
Eva Lys
Eva Lys has endured an inconsistent 2026 season and has slipped down the rankings after her breakthrough campaign in 2025. Injuries have made it difficult for the German to build momentum, and she arrives after a first-round loss in Montreal, extending her losing streak to four matches.
Despite those recent setbacks, Lys has already shown that she belongs at the highest level. She reached the top 40 earlier this year and has recorded notable victories over players such as Katie Boulter and Paula Badosa.
If she can regain physical confidence and put together a few matches in New York, Lys has the aggressive baseline game and shot-making ability to challenge any seeded player in the draw.
Eva Lys in action.
Former elite names
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini has been a major presence on the ATP Tour for years, but his current ranking of No. 40 means he is likely to be unseeded at the US Open. That alone makes him one of the players Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and the other top seeds will hope to avoid early.
The 30-year-old reached the Roland Garros quarterfinals this year before being forced to retire against Matteo Arnaldi because of injury. When healthy, Berrettini still possesses one of the most dangerous serves and forehands in men's tennis.
His history in New York is particularly impressive, having reached the semifinals in 2019 and the quarterfinals twice more in subsequent editions. Few unseeded players carry a higher ceiling.
Matteo Berrettini will look to peak at the right time.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas is another former top-10 regular whose ranking no longer reflects his true level. Now sitting at No. 47, the Greek appears to be in the middle of a career reset after parting ways with his father as coach and searching for a new direction.
A former Grand Slam finalist with victories over many of the sport's biggest names, Tsitsipas remains one of the most talented players outside the seeded positions. His confidence can fluctuate dramatically, but when he finds rhythm, he is capable of beating anyone.
That unpredictability makes him one of the most dangerous possible early-round opponents in the entire US Open draw.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has recently enjoyed title success again.
Players peaking at the right time
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
At 25, Elisabetta Cocciaretto has already spent several seasons establishing herself as a dangerous opponent on tour, even if inconsistency has prevented her from climbing much higher than her current ranking of No. 59.
She recently earned a pair of top-30 victories in Washington and owns three career wins over top-10 players, including a memorable triumph over Coco Gauff earlier this year. Cocciaretto also began the season by winning the Hobart International title, defeating rising American Iva Jovic in the final.
A relentless competitor in the classic Italian mold, Cocciaretto has also been an important part of Italy's recent Billie Jean King Cup success. Her ranking may not fully reflect her level, and few seeds would welcome drawing her in the opening rounds of the US Open.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto in action against Diana Shnaider in their women's singles match on day seven of the Rothesay/Birmingham Classic
Daria Snigur
For years, Daria Snigur was viewed as one of Ukraine's most promising talents, but it has taken longer than expected for her to establish herself consistently at tour level. The last few months, however, have suggested that the breakthrough may finally be arriving.
Snigur recently reached the Prague Open final and stunned one of the tournament favorites at Wimbledon by defeating Elina Svitolina in the opening round. The 24-year-old has made enormous progress this season after spending several years battling through qualifiers and lower-level events.
She earned her first top-10 victory four years ago by defeating Simona Halep at the US Open and now arrives with renewed confidence after reaching the first WTA final of her career. Snigur may still be under the radar for many casual fans, but she has all the ingredients to become one of the breakout stories of the late-season hard-court swing.
Ignacio Buse
The young Peruvian has been one of the most refreshing stories on the ATP Tour this season. Buse made history by winning the Hamburg Open ATP 500 title after coming through qualifying and defeating opponents such as Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, and Tommy Paul along the way.
Armed with a huge serve and a powerful baseline game, Buse was seeded at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. He is currently projected to be unseeded for the US Open, which means he could face a top-ranked opponent in the opening round.
That makes him a particularly dangerous floater. His heavy groundstrokes and fearless mentality give him the ability to trouble even the biggest names in the draw.
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon has quietly built one of the strongest upset resumes among players outside the top tier. In his last nine matches against top-20 opponents, he has recorded four victories, including wins over Lorenzo Musetti at the Australian Open and Ben Shelton at Roland Garros.
The 24-year-old Belgian reached the third round of the US Open last year and recently made his first ATP 250 final in Gstaad. He also broke into the top 50 for the first time this season, underlining the steady progress of his career.
If he can produce another strong result in Canada or Cincinnati, Collignon still has a chance to enter the US Open as a seeded player. Even if he remains unseeded, his proven ability to defeat top-five opponents in major tournaments makes him one of the players the favorites will be desperate to avoid.
Every Grand Slam draw produces one or two nightmare first-round matchups. Looking at the rankings, these ten players appear the most likely to hand a title favourite an unexpectedly difficult start in New York—and perhaps even end a championship dream before it truly begins.
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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