What Happened to Denis Shapovalov's Rise?

Denis Shapovalov fits very nicely in a long list of 'what if' stories in tennis. The Canadian had the firepower to reach the very top, and while still competing at a relatively high level, he is a shadow of what he was touted to be.

A star from a very young age, the hype around him was loud, just piling more pressure onto his shoulders. A brilliant junior career, his rise in the men's game was evident even if the success did not come straight away.

His breakthrough into the top 10 came a year before his semi-final run at Wimbledon 2021. He was on the cusp of breaking into the elite, but he could never make that next step. 2023 signalled a sharp decline that robbed him of his top 100 status.

Currently ranked 50th in the world, he has made out a solid enough tennis career for himself. However, he has been overshadowed by fellow countryman Felix Auger-Aliassime and will feel like there was, and possibly is, so much more to give. So what went wrong? From injuries to inconsistent form to a doomed playstyle, there are many factors that saw Shapovalov's trajectory inconveniently nosedive.

When he made his first foray onto the ATP Tour, Shapovalov was ready. From 250th in the world to 49 in a single year, 2017 was a statement of intent. The highlight being a splendid run on home soil, losing to Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of the Canadian Open.

He broke into the top 30 in 2018 and made more waves in 2019. He claimed his first ATP title at the Sofia Open against Filip Krajinović. A month later, he broke new ground and had the chance to win what would still be the biggest title of his career. Another Serbian faced him in the Paris Masters final, but this time it was Djokovic who soundly beat him in straight sets.

The progression was not stopping anytime soon. While he failed to reach an ATP final in 2020, a maiden major quarter-final at Flushing Meadows signalled a career high ranking of 10th in the world. He went one step further in 2021, eyeing Wimbledon glory as he defeated the likes of Andy Murray, Roberto Bautista Agut and Karen Khachanov to seal a spot in the semi-finals. Eventual winner Djokovic again stood in his way, but nonetheless it was a breakout run that showcased what talent he possesses. Despite this, he would never kick on.

He remained a consistent player lurking around the top 20 mark, but it was obvious there was more to give. Shapovalov's career could have either gone two ways. A stark incline that involved kicking on from the Wimbledon semi-final to stardom, or the opposite, which sees him slowly drift away from the top.

The latter occurred. He finished 2022 18th in the world. A year later, he was outside of the top 100. This originated from him starting to feel some pain in his knee back in October 2022. It all became too much, culminating in a disappointing second round exit at Wimbledon, he opted to skip the rest of 2023, resulting in a sharp plummet down the ATP rankings.

He broke his title drought at the Belgrade Open in 2024. Aside from a very noteworthy Dallas Open and Los Cabos Open 2025 title and 2026 final defeat, it has been pretty bang average. No deep major or Masters 1000 runs to report on. He did climb back up the rankings following the 2023 woes, finishing 2025 in 23rd in the world. However, he has soon fallen back down to that 50 mark.

There are a number reasons for Shapovalov not making it to the top. The injury problem was a damaging blow, but others have come back from injury layoffs and returned to the position they have been in.

In some ways, Shapovalov's career was always doomed due to his inconsistent nature on court. Capable of so much, the tennis world did not always get to see it. An extremely aggressive game which can be marvellous when he gets it right but can also to error-prone performances. His left-handed serve and forehand are the two big weapons in his arsenal, but when not on song he can be exposed.

The big boys have come unstuck against him numerous times. He has secured 14 top 10 wins from 51 attempts. When at his best, it can be devastating. The 2025 Dallas Open title run for example. Defeating Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud in the final to triumph in extraordinary circumstances. If he plays like this every match, there is nothing to be worried about. Going back to his inconsistent tendencies, and it makes more sense why he is far off the pace.

This aggressive style which leads to constant errors in his service games is back enough, but not being the best of returners compounds his misery at times. When his first serve lands and the forehand is there to back it up, he can get on top of opponents. If service games are being handed away too easily, his return has been known to let him down, preventing any sort of fightback against the serve. Less pressure on serve makes the other player more comfortable while in turn piling the pressure on your side of the court. Shapovalov has been in that situation before.

In truth, Shapovalov is an incredible player; there is no denying it. On his day, he can lay a glove on anyone. The problem is that these days, those special performances are becoming seldom seen. The Wimbledon semi-final, the Paris Masters Final, and the Dallas Open title. Not enough of those days in other tournaments have left Shapovalov not reaching the fourth round of any Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event since Wimbledon 2023.

2026 has been another year where injuries have taken over:

Described as an 'annoying year' by the Canadian, a few more early exits and it may be time to pack it in and focus on 2027. However, Shapovalov should not be ruled out from making another push forward to the top of the game.

Still only 27, Shapovalov has a lot more years of tennis under his belt. Supposedly in his prime years, he should be winning titles and challenging for Grand Slam titles by now. That is very much not the case, but it is not too early to give up. If he can unlock that spark once more, then who knows. Maybe Shapovalov could climb back into the top 10.

For now, that seems rather unlikely. Another campaign where he finishes around the 50th in the world mark is on the cards, and the injury problems do not seem to be going away any time soon. It is crucial that Shapovalov figures out what is going wrong with his tennis, and the answers are obvious. It is whether he makes adjustments to keep that aggressive style but make it more reliable, lending to a more consistent blend of tennis. If the erros continue to mount, then there is only one direction he is heading - backwards.