China Open 2025: The Road to the Year-End Championships

China Open in late September is when the race for year end points heats up. With Grand Slams behind us, and the tennis season entering its last tournaments, every point feels more important than ever. The championship in China sits right in that lane. It is a combined ATP and WTA event on outdoor hard courts at the National Tennis Centre, and in 2025 it stretches across three weeks, with the showcase finals landing during China’s Golden Week holidays. The timing is perfect, meaning we can expect big crowds on the stands, vocal China Open expert picks and predictions displaying their proficiency in the sport, bigger pressure on top players, and a direct link to the season finales in Riyadh for the women and Turin for the men. 

The China Open is one of the last premium hard court stops before the year end cutoffs. For the women, points won in Beijing can lock in or boost a place at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, which run from November 1-8. For the men, the tournament feeds directly into the ATP Live Race to Turin, with the ATP Finals scheduled for November 9-16. If you are close to the line, going far into the tournament in Beijing can be the difference between packing early for the off season and walking into the top eight players. 

The event’s history on hard courts is also a great preparation for the indoor finals. Players who serve well, have fast and clean returns, and manage short court exchanges in Beijing tend to carry that form indoors. Essentially, if players’ baseline game is tight here, it usually lasts to the last two weeks of the season. 

Just days before China 2025 kicks off, there was news coming from Aryna Sabalenka’s team. The current world No.1 in women’s singles cited fatigue from the previous US Open championship, and the physical toll the run left on her body. That reshuffled the seedings, so for fans who want to bet on China Open, Iga Swiatek and defending champion Coco Gauff are left as the top contenders. However, the tournament is more than just the two top players. There are plenty of other strong players, big hitters and shot makers, who can quickly change the course of a match. 

On the men’s side, the ATP entry is led by Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, with proven hard court threats like Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev in the mix. A healthy Alex de Minaur brings top level speed around the court, and young players like Jakub Mensik can be dangerous in any part of the draw, because their power gives them a real chance to beat even the top seeds. None of this guarantees results, but it paints the picture of how thick the draw will be from day one.

Beijing is not a lottery. The tournament in China heavily favors complete players, the ones who have a strong serve along with precise returns and quick play on the net. In 2024, Carlos Alcaraz outlasted Sinner in a three hour epic to win the men’s title, a match that set a new length record for Beijing’s ATP 500. It was a testament of mental endurance as well as first strike tennis, winning points efficiently with minimum physical strain. A year earlier, Sinner lifted the trophy thanks to his improved backhand and aggressive serve. 

On the women’s side, Coco Gauff stormed to the 2024 title with fast starts and crisp return games, announcing that her hard court skills go beyond her native North America. Those are the styles that win here: clean serves, early take return positions, and the nerve to hit through tough moments. 

●      Sabalenka is out, and the tournament’s odds at Stake.com immediately started shifting. We will enjoy the play of world’s No. 2 and No.3, Swiatek and Gauff, separated by only around 60 points, along with Elena Rybakina, Zheng Qinwen, Jessica Pegula, and Jasmine Paolini pushing just behind. 

●      Swiatek’s case is simple. Her return numbers on hard courts are elite, and she builds pressure by winning neutral rallies with controlled aggression. Beijing’s pace gives her enough time to set her feet on the forehand and open the court with wide returns. With the WTA Finals a week earlier on the calendar this year than some past editions, Swiatek also knows that a Beijing title can set a tone for Riyadh. She has already qualified for the WTA Finals, and the target now is to gain more points in order to stay behind Sabalenka. 

●      Gauff arrives with the most direct Beijing confidence, since she is the defending champion. Last year Coco sailed through the finale with improved serve placement and a much more proactive forehand when she was on top of the rally. Add in elite speed and counterpunching, and we could have a rerun of the last season. With the WTA Finals staged in Riyadh again, Gauff’s team will want a crisp hard court block to set her up for a great push to second place. 

●      Rybakina is the biggest threat to both of them. Her first serve numbers can take the racket out of anyone’s hands for a set and a half. Beijing’s conditions reward that fast serve with a powerful forehand to follow. If she strings together health and tempo for five to six matches, she can win the whole thing. 

●      Zheng Qinwen is the home court variable. She has strengthened her return game and has learned to flatten the forehand down the line to finish points rather than count on returns going across the court. The support in Beijing will be loud, and if her first serve percentage holds, she is a genuine title shot deep into week two. 

●      Paolini brings a different threat of balance and resilience. She thrives in long rallies, and as her 2024 season showed, she can survive extended, nervy sets and still find focus to stay in the set. 

●      Add in Pegula’s steady baseline weight and Mirra Andreeva’s fearless timing, and you can see why the second week will feel like continuous seeded player warfare. The field is that strong.

So, who can realistically win this tournament and go to Riyadh less stressed? Gauff and Swiatek are the two most likely finalists, with Rybakina as the best spoiler. The coin flip edge goes to Gauff because of her Beijing comfort and the way her speed tends to unsettle Swiatek by disturbing her hits on hard courts. A repeat champion is not easy here, but her path makes sense. If the draw puts a lot of big servers on Gauff’s side, then Swiatek has a better chance of winning the title, because her section would be easier to handle. If Zheng lands a friendly section, we could see her in the semifinals with the crowd as a bonus force.

●      Carlos Alcaraz was supposed to come as a defending champion to China, but the Spaniard, after his stellar performance at the US Open, opted to stay in the US and play in the Laver Cup. The No. 1 will kick off his Asian tour with the Japan Open later this year. 

●      Jannik Sinner is the star name at every tournament. His hard court play has been improving since 2023, by hitting powerful first and second serves, followed by his confidence to step inside the baseline on returns. Sinner is currently hitting the cleanest backhand on the tour, which is his most effective weapon coming to China. The second seeded player developed a pattern of serving wide in the ad court, backhand through the middle, then changing to the forehand proved to be a winning combination that rivals still don’t have an answer to. His track to Turin is also familiar and positive. He knows the surface profile he’ll see at the Finals, and he’ll try to tune the same weapons here. 

●      Alexander Zverev has played his best late season tennis on hard courts, especially in structured baseline rallies where he can roll the backhand deep and look for forehand finishes. Beijing’s bounce helps him defend his backhand corner and still reach short balls on time. If his second serve holds under pressure, he could be a title contender.

●      Daniil Medvedev is the chess player in this room. His return can drag even the biggest servers into rallies they do not want. The question is always about his willingness to step forward when the match asks for it. If he finds a week of clean forehand finishing, he can win the tournament. 

●      Stefanos Tsitsipas remains a shot maker who can rip off nine games in a row and then go quiet. It happened to him so many times before. However, if the backhand down the line is landing on the inside of the court, and the forehand is heavy into the corners, he becomes a nightmare for rivals. His serve volley is spectacular when the opponents find themselves deep into the court. 

●      Alex de Minaur brings a different flavor. He turns defense into offense and forces you to hit three extra balls in every rally. In Beijing’s court, that stubbornness breaks opponents who have not fully settled. If he gets a draw with a few strong hitters early, he can run to the weekend. 

The live wire name is Jakub Mensik. Big serve, fearless backhand, and a willingness to take the forehand early. He may not be a popular title pick, but he is a serious “ruin a seed’s week” candidate. In short, Sinner is the clear top pick because his Beijing patterns mirror the tennis that has made him a force at the ATP Finals. If the draw splits Sinner and Medvedev, the likeliest final is Sinner versus Zverev or Medvedev. The simple forecast is Sinner over Medvedev in a straight sets final built on first strike points and patient backhand. The bolder call is de Minaur shocking the bottom half and pushing Sinner to a tiebreak. 

The WTA Finals in Riyadh reward players who take the ball early and protect serve against aggressive returners. That is why Swiatek, Gauff, and Rybakina loom so large in Beijing. Rallies tend to be short in the business end of both events. Holding serve is the most important skill when playing in China. If the second serve is vulnerable here, it will be punished later. With the Finals locked into Riyadh again in 2025, the women who close out the China Open with clean service games will feel they have solved the hardest problem at this stage in the season. 

Turin’s indoor court favors the value of a first serve and a first forehand. The back half of the China Open gives you those exact stress tests. That is why players like Sinner and Medvedev aim to leave Beijing with good timing of their forehands. If they handle Beijing’s pace, Turin feels like a continuation of China’s championship. The event has been confirmed in Italy long term, so the drive to peak on hard courts in Asia is as strong as it has ever been. 

Some athletes already have enough points to feel safe. Others use Beijing to improve their ranking. On the women’s side, the Race shows a gap between the top two and the field. That creates opportunity. A semifinal or better here can vault a player who has been hovering between ninth and twelfth straight into Riyadh. That is why athletes like Pegula or Paolini become so dangerous now. They do not need to win the title to transform their season, but rather just one great week against the top eight. 

Men, on the other hand, typically have a packed schedule before going to Turin. One good week can be worth two months of steady ATP250 tournaments. Players who are still in their teens, come to China to swing freely, without pressure or expectations. The official Race page updates daily and tells the story of these shifts. In late September, that story can change fast.