Brisbane International 2025 Women’s Finals Preview: Aryna Sabalenka heavy favorite against surprise finalist Polina Kudermetova

Aryna Sabalenka will face the surprising Polina Kudermetova in the Brisbane International final. The world No. 1 will aim to improve on her 2024 result, where she lost in the final, though this time she is the overwhelming favorite to start the year with a trophy as she faces a player who came through qualifying.

However, Kudermetova cannot be dismissed, as she is a well-deserved finalist with wins over strong opponents, such as Daria Kasatkina and Liudmila Samsonova. The Russian made it through qualifying, has won seven consecutive matches, and will play in her first WTA tournament final.

Sabalenka takes on Kudermetova for the title

If there were any doubts about whether Aryna Sabalenka would maintain her level in 2025, she has made it clear in her first tournament that she has no intention of letting up. Four consecutive wins, all in straight sets, have put her in her first final of the year. A year ago, she was the runner-up after losing to Elena Rybakina, but this time she appears to be the clear favorite for the title.

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Sabalenka defeated Renata Zarazua (No. 75), 15th seed Yulia Putintseva (No. 29), and Marie Bouzkova (No. 44) on her way to the final. Her biggest challenge seemed to be in the semifinals against rising teenager Mirra Andreeva (No. 16), but the Belarusian had no trouble eliminating her 6-3, 6-2 in their first hardcourt clash.

This will be Sabalenka’s 32nd final of her career (17-14 so far). Her record in WTA 500 tournaments stands at a negative (4-6). So far, she has not faced Kudermetova, who is still outside the top 100. At least until this week, as making the final allowed her to move up 50 spots in the rankings and she will be ranked at least No. 57 in the WTA Rankings on Monday. If she win the title, she would rise to No. 44.

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Polina, 21, has spent the past seasons mainly competing in Challenger and ITF tournaments, so she has been away from the spotlight of the WTA Tour. She surprised last year by defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova at the Korea Open and advancing to the quarterfinals (coming from qualifying), where she lost to Beatriz Haddad Maia. She has only one appearance at a Grand Slam (2023 Australian Open), where she was eliminated in the first round.

Kudermetova reaches a final she likely didn’t expect, and it is a great sign for her season. Against the clearly favored Sabalenka, Kudermetova has nothing to lose. Maintaining a good first serve percentage will be key, as she won 84% of points with her first serve against Anhelina Kalinina in the semifinals, and took advantage of all three of her break opportunities. This week, she also secured her first win over a top-10 player in the third round against Daria Kasatkina (No. 9).

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