"I think Sabalenka self-destructed" - Tennis analysts discuss Aryna Sabalenka's sudden Roland Garros implosion

WTA
Thursday, 04 June 2026 at 15:30
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Aryna Sabalenka was a broken tennis player after defeat to Diana Shnaider in the quarter-finals of the French Open. Her defeat was broken down on the Tennis Channel while questions over whether she could bounce back from this were quickly answered.
The wait for a maiden Roland Garros title prolongs for Sabalenka who was the big favourite coming not just into this match, but for the rest of the tournament with a number of seeds being decimated. She was very glum in her press conference where she stated: “I want to quit tennis right now" as she looked to reflect on a bad day at the office.
“I felt like mentally I couldn’t really recover after the second set," she said. "I think that was the mistake for me. I don’t know when was the last time that happened to me, that I lost ten games in a row. I guess mentally I got into a very deep, deep dark hole over there, and I just couldn’t get back on track mentally.”

What went wrong for the world number one?

Alison Riske-Amritraj delved into the stats behind Sabalenka's devastating defeat. "Well, I think one thing Aryna Sabalenka usually does extremely well is win points behind her second serve, and that percentage dropped today. She can be very aggressive in those situations, but it just wasn't high enough," she analysed.
In fact, only 35% of second serve points were won, meaning that first serve needed to be in point. That also languished at 57%, not high enough to combat Shnaider. "Look at Diana Shnaider's numbers — 68%. (second serve points won) You can also see the break-point opportunities. Shnaider had several chances and, in truth, could have made the match a little easier than she eventually did."
Shnaider had 20 break point opportunities compared to Sabalenka's five. While the Belarusian was more clinical with hers, the sheer amount of chances heavily went in the favour of Shnaider who would take them at the end of the match.
Sabalenka completely collapsed on court. She hit a grand total of 57 unforced errors compared to the Russian's 26, while losing the final 10 games of the match after she attempted to serve it out at 5-4. It is just the fourth time that a number one ranked women's player has been bageled in a deciding set of a Grand Slam match.
This is just one of the number of incredible upsets that have occurred in this tournament, with Jimmy Arias making that point. "Could you imagine how much money you would have made if you had bet on Francisco Cerúndolo winning after being 6–3, 6–2, 5–1 down against Jannik Sinner, and then also bet on Sabalenka losing after being 6–3, 4–1 and a double break up? You'd be a multi-millionaire," he joked.
He went on to delve deeper into the incredible change of fortunes for both players. "As for how Shnaider turned it around, I think Sabalenka self-destructed. She got tight for whatever reason. It's very strange because at 4–1 up with two breaks, you're still way ahead and still the better player if you're playing your best tennis.
"The conditions weren't the kind she likes. It was very windy — similar to the conditions she complained about when she lost in golf last year. We had winds of around 30 miles per hour today. The conditions didn't seem to bother her until suddenly they did. And once they did, they really bothered her."
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Aryna Sabalenka could not get the match done in an unexpected collapse against Diana Shnaider at Roland Garros 2026

Doubts over Sabalenka bouncing back swiftly diverted

The question was pitched to Chanda Rubin on whether the four-time Grand Slam champion could bounce back from such a traumatic defeat. "We talked about Jannik Sinner earlier because something similar happened in his match when he was comfortably ahead and couldn't close it out. In his case, we thought there might have been a physical element. With Sabalenka, it was more emotional. She simply couldn't pull it together," she commented.
"We saw her in the press conference afterwards. It's incredibly difficult to discuss a loss like that immediately after it happens — even an hour or two later. Sometimes you need 24 hours to process it and get back to a place where you're thinking clearly.
"In those moments, your emotions aren't reasonable, and that's understandable. It was a tough loss because she was chasing her first Roland-Garros title. It looked as though she had a great chance to reach the final given the state of the draw. But you still have to beat the player across the net. Matches like this remind you in real time why it's so difficult to win Grand Slam titles, even when you're a heavy favourite. Hopefully she can rebound quickly, especially with the grass-court season coming up."
Riske-Amritraj was quick to praise Shnaider for dealing with the conditions much better than her opponent. "The conditions weren't perfect today, but Shnaider stayed mentally tough throughout the match. We have to give her enormous credit for that."
She also touched on that heart-breaking interview afterwards. "One thing I also liked about Sabalenka's interview afterwards was her honesty. It showed that she's human like the rest of us. She has bad days and difficult moments too," she said.
"We've seen her struggle before — she had a tough Roland-Garros final last year, but then bounced back to win the US Open. She had a difficult Australian Open, yet went on to have an incredible season before the clay-court swing.
"I don't doubt she'll bounce back again, but I do think she needs to address this. She admitted that tournaments like Wimbledon and Roland-Garros — the majors she hasn't won — are on her mind because she wants them so badly. She's the best player in the world, but she has won only one of the last six Grand Slam titles. That's something she'll be determined to change."
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