Naomi Osaka's 2026 season proves her career isn't following the usual comeback script

It is obvious that Naomi Osaka has not reached her previous levels on the court. For all she achieved in her prime, her 2026 campaign pales in significance. Despite this, she is still receiving a lot of plaudits for what is being seen as a brilliant reason and a huge step in the right direction. Not a major champion again, but the positives are there.

Whether it is going deeper more consistently in big tournaments, laying a glove to the best players in the world, or her seemless adaptation to other court surfaces, 2026 has showcased an improved level to all of these. Her run at quarter-final run at Wimbledon and a final in Bad Homburg being the highlights, both not on her favourite hardcourt surface.

Ranked 17th in the world, Osaka is around 1,700 points from breaking into the top 10, somewhere she has not finished a season since 2020. However, it is not all about the ranking anymore. It is not all about getting herself back to World No.1.

Osaka is not following the usual comeback script. It would begin being rusty, followed by the player starting to settle once more. A gradual climb would lead them back to their former level, and in no time they would be back at square one. Coming up to three years after her return, and Osaka has not followed that pattern. Instead, new achievements and accolades have been added to her game. She is not the force that she used to be, but her 2026 season has given her the foundation to kick on and take a more scenic route back to the top.

Osaka left the tour in 2023 to become a mother. With her return came much intrigue amid her past heroics in the sport. She was the World No.1 for a grand total of 25 weeks. Added to that, she won four Grand Slam titles: two at the Australian Open and two at the US Open in between 2018 and 2021.

This makes the decision to step away from the sport an interesting one on her behalf. Yes, she very much wanted to start a family, and that is the problem with sport. No one waits for you. Ruthless to some extent.

Osaka was at the highest level and in a prime age, and on court it was showing, but maybe not with the consistency that she would have hoped for to represent her classy tennis. She could hit a ball harder than anyone, making it a relief for the rest of the WTA Tour that she would take a full year out.

Virtually starting again, Osaka had the tedious yet intriguing task of working her way back up the rankings. There was a huge expectancy that she would get back to her old self, winning Grand Slam tournaments and fighting for the World No.1 spot, but that has not been the case.

Now 28, these are supposed to be the prime years of her life. 2024 did not represent that. Poor form at major and WTA 1000 level with no WTA finals to show. That continued into 2025 as she searched for her prior self. She did reach a first WTA final in almost three years in Auckland but was forced to retire. This comeback was about getting the old Osaka back, but it was not until the 2025 Canadian Open that glimpses of her past self were emerging for all to gaze at.

A run to the final gave her another chance to break her title drought, going all the way back to the 2021 Australian Open. However, despite taking the first set, an 18-year-old Victoria Mboko stunned the tennis world to seal glory. This was instantly backed up with a semi-final run at Flushing Meadows. A third US Open title would not come to fruition, but finally Osaka was getting somewhere with her game.

Still no titles, no World No.1 or even top 10 ranking breakthrough. On the face of it, Osaka is enduring another season of mediocrity compared to what she should be aiming for, but that is not the case.

The Japanese cannot be looked at as that type of player anymore, but that does not mean she will give it a good go. There were visible improvements to her game that are hugely contrasting to her prior self. An example of this comes on grass.

A woeful surface in the past, Osaka has never made it past the third round before at Wimbledon. That stat looked to be changed in the near future following an eye-catching Bad Homburg Open run. She stormed through the rounds and reached the final without dropping a set. A mix of Karolina Muchova simply being too good and injury cost her the chance of glory. Up next came Wimbledon and a first win against Aryna Sabalenka in eight years. Not just that, but it was a dominant and ruthless one, outclassing the number one seed. She would slip up at the quarter-final stage, but that in itself was a brilliant result.

While not in her pomp, she is still creating new milestones on surfaces that she had not been so fond of in the past. It showcases a maturing player who is using her old knowledge and adding to it piece by piece, moving away from her trusty hardcourt to produce blistering displays elsewhere. If it was not for Sabalenka, Osaka could have even made it to or past the quarter-final stages in Madrid and Roland Garros. For Osaka, it is not trying to get herself through the few months of clay and grass ahead of the North American hardcourt swing, it is about capitalising on the events on offer and the points up for grabs.

Her being a more complete player is coinciding with going toe-to-toe with the best players in the world. That Sabalenka win was much needed for her confidence after all those prior defeats. The difference in 2026 is that while they kept meeting, their matches were thrillers, and Sabalenka was pushed very hard on all three surfaces. It is something that Osaka is targeting. Wherever she is ranked, she has ambitions of playing, competing, and beating the best. Something she was accustomed to doing before her hiatus.

It is all well and good praising Osaka for her 2026 campaign, but there are still some evident gaps. Earlier in the year, her life on the WTA Tour was questioned by Osaka herself after a bruising straight-set loss in the second round of the Miami Open against Talia Gibson. Fed up of being in the positions she was in, Osaka pondered the possibility of quitting the sport if these early results continued to occur.

She is in the privileged position to have completed so much in tennis. She has a lot to fall back on, including her family. If she is constantly losing and facing setbacks, the motivation and hunger start to wane. Doubt creeps in, and the questions crop up over whether it is worth it.

Fortunately, Osaka has picked up her form since then, but she may be a bit disappointed about her North American hardcourt swing. The DC Open was the perfect chance to get some silverware back and in turn send out an ominous statement of intent. Instead, she got outclassed by Alexandra Eala in the semi-finals. Elena Rybakina ended her Canadian Open and US Open title ambitions in the quarter-final and fourth round, respectively. She blew a set and break lead in Toronto, while the Kazakh was simply too good in New York.

That goes back to the ambition of going toe-to-toe with the best. Ahead of the last-eight in Canada, Osaka said, "Coming back after pregnancy, I was really eager to play the best players, and now I'm able to play them and go toe-to-toe. So I'm just really happy about that."

Since her return to tennis, she has picked up only three top 10 wins. Two of which had come in the 2024 and 2025 US Open against Jelena Ostapenko and Coco Gauff, with the third in 2026 against Sabalenka. From nine ties against top-10 opposition in 2026, that was the only win. Positive performances are one thing, but we are talking about four-time Grand Slam champion Osaka here. It is unrealistic for her to be winning all these tussles, but there is room for improvement. However, is that the biggest objective?

Osaka's career has been a topsy turvey one. From being the best player in the world to a pregnancy hiatus to returning to the tour with not much to celebrate about. It must be hard at times to go from challenging for the biggest honours to struggling to make it past the opening rounds. However, 2026 has shown how far Osaka has come.

In 2024, she won 20 matches; in 25 in 2025; and this year 28. However, there is an obvious catch. Osaka's 2026 campaign is nowhere near over yet. WTA 1000 tournaments in Beijing and Wuhan provide another opportunity on hardcourt with a trip to Japan surely also on the cards.

Her comeback was initially seen as one that saw her swiftly climb back up the ranks and compete for the biggest titles again. That never occurred, making her comeback strange compared to others. Elina Svitolina and Belinda Bencic both followed a similar career trajectory aside from the major titles and have come back with stronger and more consistent results than Osaka.

This Osaka is different. 2026 has shaped her as an all-around player still capable of leathering a ball but is more adaptable and experienced. She is not a main contender for Grand Slam titles, but she is most certainly an outsider possibly soon creeping her way back into that discussion.

Osaka's comeback was almost like a new career, separate from the old one. Now a more complete player, she just needs to iron out some of the creases, and then we could be talking about the old Osaka again. However, that also may not occur. Still without a WTA title since the 2021 Australian Open, it does seem to be getting closer.

The idea that coming back to the sport and immediately ending up where they once were is false. Sometimes that is not possible, sometimes the person in question is not ambitious enough. Osaka is not back to her best, but 2026 has been her best season since her return. The script she was supposed to follow has been flung away, choosing to create a new legacy and pathway for herself. The question has to be where can she go next.