Preview Ningbo Open Final: Elena Rybakina battles Alexandrova with WTA Finals spot hanging in the balance

The Ningbo Open final will be played this Sunday between the former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina and the Russian Ekaterina Alexandrova, as they both seek the WTA 500 title.

The Kazakh player defeated the Italian Jasmine Paolini this Saturday and maintains the possibility of qualifying for the WTA Finals, while Alexandrova is looking to crown her debut in the Top-10 with a title, after overcoming the all-Russian clash against Diana Shnaider.

Elena Rybakina is playing her penultimate tournament, looking to add a good number of points that would allow her to secure her qualification for the WTA Finals. After a good performance in Wuhan where she reached the quarterfinals, this time she reaches her second final of the season, having fallen in five semifinals throughout the year.

Rybakina entered as the 3rd seed and defeated rivals like Dayana Yastremska (6-4, 6-7, 6-3), Ajla Tomljanovic (6-2, 6-0), and Jasmine Paolini (6-3, 6-2). She has 19 wins in her last 25 appearances on hardcourts—since the end of Wimbledon—but she was missing the step forward to return to a final, the 21st of her career (9-11) and her first on hardcourt since the Miami Open in March 2024 (where she was defeated by Danielle Collins).

The former World No. 3 is currently 9th in the Race and the match against Paolini (7th) was key in the pursuit of a potential qualification, with Rybakina taking the victory 6-3, 6-2. If the 26-year-old manages to win the title in Osaka this week, she will reach 4,305 points—only 15 points away from Andreeva, who currently holds the 8th qualifying spot. Considering the teenager will not be competing in the coming weeks, Rybakina would only need one more win at the Tokyo Open next week to secure her third consecutive qualification to the WTA Finals.

The World No. 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova debuted in the Top-10 for the first time on Monday at 30 years old and has had an impressive week, showing the consistency that has characterized her all year. The Russian has not dropped a set on her way to the final, having defeated Yue Yuan (6-3, 6-3), McCartney Kessler (6-3, 6-3), and Diana Shnaider (6-3, 6-4). In her three matches, Alexandrova has hit 12 aces and has only been broken 4 times, while accumulating 20 aces in total.

Alexandrova has played 11 career finals so far (5-6), winning her most important title at the Linz Open earlier this year. The Russian has won only one of her last five finals and will seek to turn things around against Rybakina in pursuit of her second career WTA 500 title.

The Russian had long been out of contention for a spot in the WTA Finals, but by reaching the final, she confirmed that she will finish the year in the Top-10, a battle she maintained closely with others like Clara Tauson and Belinda Bencic.

In the head-to-head rivalry, Alexandrova leads 3-1, with their last encounter being in the quarterfinals of the Adelaide International 2024—a win for the Russian in straight sets. Their three previous matches were during 2020, when both players had a very different reality than their current one.

For Rybakina, this could be the 10th title of her career and the 5th in WTA 500 tournaments, as well as her second of the season (champion at the Strasbourg Open 2025 against Liudmila Samsonova). On the other hand, Alexandrova will seek the 6th title of her career and second WTA 500 title. Both players are confirmed to play the Tokyo Open next week, although they will have to wait for everything to finish in Ningbo to see if there are any last-minute withdrawals.