“She’s a dangerous opponent”: Elena Rybakina previews Svitolina semifinal after securing World No. 2 ranking

Elena Rybakina will face Elina Svitolina in the semifinals of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells after defeating Jessica Pegula 6-1, 7-6 in the quarterfinals. The Kazakh advanced with a strong opening set before recovering from a second-set deficit, setting up a high-profile semifinal clash against the Ukrainian, whom she described as “a dangerous opponent” during her post-match press conference.

The result also carries significant ranking implications. Rybakina is now guaranteed to rise to a career-high World No. 2 when the WTA rankings are updated after the tournament, overtaking Iga Swiatek following the Pole’s quarterfinal defeat earlier in the day.

Her latest victory marks a continuation of an impressive campaign in the California desert to semifinals. Indian Wells has historically been one of her most successful stops on the WTA Tour; outside of the Grand Slams, it is the event where she has accumulated the most victories in her career, now reaching 15 wins at the prestigious WTA 1000 tournament.

Speaking in her post-match press conference, Rybakina acknowledged that the match became significantly more challenging after a dominant opening set. The 2022 Wimbledon champion said she had to “fight for each game” once Pegula raised her level during the second set.

The upcoming semifinal will renew a balanced rivalry between Rybakina and Svitolina, with their head-to-head currently tied at 3-3. Their most recent meeting came in Madrid last season, where Svitolina secured a straight-sets victory.

Rybakina’s rise to World No. 2 marks a significant milestone in her career. Despite winning two Grand Slam titles and consistently competing deep in major tournaments, the Kazakh had never previously climbed higher than World No. 3. Her Indian Wells run now secures the highest ranking of her career.

The semifinal appearance is also the 12th of her career at the WTA 1000 level. On five previous occasions she has progressed to the final, lifting the trophy twice, including her title run at Indian Wells in 2023.

Against Pegula, the match initially appeared one-sided as Rybakina controlled the baseline exchanges and dictated points with her serve. The first set lasted just over half an hour as the Kazakh imposed her aggressive style from the opening games. “I think the quality of the match was good. I started pretty well, very aggressive, and the serve was working today.”

Pegula responded in the second set, breaking early and forcing Rybakina into longer rallies. The American began taking advantage of a slight drop in intensity, turning the set into a sequence of tightly contested games before the match eventually moved toward a tiebreak. “In the second set, of course Jessica, she’s a tough player. I felt that I played a little bit passive. She took the opportunity, got the lead. After, it was a fight for each game, a lot of close rallies. I was just trying to fight and find a way. In the end, everything worked out.”

The victory continues a broader trend in Rybakina’s record against elite opponents. She is one of only four active players with a winning record against Top-10 opponents, holding a 35-27 mark, alongside Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Venus Williams. Seven of her 11 consecutive victories over Top-10 players have also come in straight sets, reflecting how quickly she can control matches when her serve and first-strike tennis are functioning.

Indian Wells presents some of the most distinctive conditions on the WTA Tour, with slower courts and fluctuating desert temperatures often shaping the rhythm of matches. Rybakina explained in her press conference that the combination of heat and surface speed requires players to adapt their approach depending on the time of day.

“In the heat, the ball is flying more, which I prefer. But honestly, when I warmed up today it was full sun and it wasn’t that nice. And we were lucky that when we stepped on the court it was full shade.”

The difference between daytime and evening sessions has also influenced her preparation throughout the tournament. Rybakina noted that the ball behaves differently at night, requiring adjustments in tactics and shot selection depending on when matches are scheduled.

“I knew that it’s going to be slow. I was trying to adjust, and knowing the conditions I change a little bit the tactic or preparation for the match. But overall, it’s not easy to predict and you need to be ready for everything.”

Those adjustments have proven effective during her campaign in California. Rybakina’s record at Indian Wells continues to grow stronger with each appearance, and the tournament remains one of the places where her powerful baseline game has produced some of her most consistent results.

Awaiting Rybakina in the semifinals is Elina Svitolina, whose victory over Swiatek earlier in the tournament reshaped the draw and ultimately opened the path for Rybakina’s rise to No. 2 in the rankings. Their head-to-head series remains evenly balanced, adding another layer of intrigue to the upcoming contest.

Svitolina’s return to form over the past year has been marked by a slightly more aggressive approach compared with earlier stages of her career. Rybakina acknowledged that evolution, noting that the Ukrainian now looks to take the initiative more frequently during rallies.

“Definitely I felt when she came back that she’s playing more aggressive and she’s trying to really step in on some shots, put pressure. I think she’s a dangerous opponent. She reads the game well.”

For Rybakina, the strategy heading into the semifinal remains clear. Her serve continues to be one of the most effective weapons on the WTA Tour, and she indicated that controlling points early will be essential against a defensive counterpuncher such as Svitolina. “I will try to focus on my serve, because it’s a weapon, and I really need to use it well, and then of course try to fight and find a way so hopefully I can win this match.”

With a career-high ranking secured and momentum building in the desert, Rybakina now moves within two wins of repeating her Indian Wells triumph. The semifinal against Svitolina will determine whether her latest run in California can once again carry her into the final.