WTA Finals Day 3 Preview & Schedule: Sabalenka seeks semifinal place, Rybakina and Zheng fight to stay alive

The third day of Round Robin play kicks off at the WTA Finals, with Aryna Sabalenka looking to secure her spot in the semifinals. The Purple Group started with wins by the Belarusian and Jasmine Paolini, who will now compete for group leadership.

On the other side, Elena Rybakina and Zheng Qinwen face each other, both needing a victory to stay in contention for a semifinal spot. Both suffered losses in their opening matches, and the loser here is likely eliminated from the tournament.

Zheng Qinwen faced a tough start against an in-form Aryna Sabalenka, likely the most challenging debut for the 22-year-old. Both players have been in top form at the close of the season, but the Belarusian has become a major hurdle for Zheng, who has lost all five of their encounters (winning just one set out of ten).

Initially seen as a strong candidate to advance alongside Sabalenka, Zheng now needs a win to stay in the tournament. She faces Rybakina, who returned to competition against Jasmine Paolini after more than two months off. Rybakina’s season has been plagued with withdrawals and physical issues, making her the least active player in the draw. Despite starting strong with her serve, she faded as the match went on, ending with 27 winners and 56 unforced errors.

Both players need to improve their first serve to boost their chances. Rybakina landed only 50% (winning 82%), while Zheng had 51% (winning 82%). While the Kazakh leads their head-to-head 2-0 and has never dropped a set to the Chinese player, the momentum now favors Zheng, who is in great form at the end of the year, while Rybakina is still adapting to high-level competition after a long absence.

Aryna Sabalenka shows no signs of slowing down, opening with a commanding win in the first round. Returning as world No. 1, she put on the best debut performance, defeating the challenging Zheng Qinwen with ease and solidifying her position as the favorite for the title. In her opening match, she won 94% of first serve points and didn't face a single break.

She’ll meet Jasmine Paolini, arguably the WTA's biggest improvement this season. Early in the year, the 27-year-old had only four Grand Slam wins in 16 tournaments, but her 2024 season has been her best yet, reaching the finals of Roland Garros and Wimbledon, capturing her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai, and climbing into the top five.

Paolini achieved her first top-10 indoor win against Rybakina just days ago, capitalizing on her opponent’s errors and mixing up her serve to make up for her lack of height. Indoor hardcourt conditions, however, don’t favor the 1.62m Italian player, especially against the 1.82m Sabalenka. Paolini’s strength lies in longer rallies, which will be tough to achieve against Sabalenka under these conditions.

Sabalenka is the favorite to win and secure her semifinal spot at the WTA Finals. Paolini, though a tricky opponent, knows she has a safety net after, which might ease her nerves. Still, the Italian won’t give up any point easily as she aims to pull off an upset against the nearly unstoppable Sabalenka.