WTA Finals Day 5 Preview & Schedule: Paolini vs. Zheng battle for semifinal spot, Sabalenka faces Rybakina for 10th time

The fifth day of the WTA Finals begins with the clash that will decide the second semifinalist of the Purple Group, as Italy's Jasmine Paolini (No. 4) faces 22-year-old Chinese player Zheng Qinwen (No. 7). The winner will advance in second place behind Aryna Sabalenka.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is preparing for a new showdown against Elena Rybakina, who is already out of the competition. Sabalenka recently secured her position as the year-end No. 1 and will seek another dominant performance against the eliminated Kazakh player.

Paolini and Zheng will kick off the evening in search of the second spot in the tournament’s semifinals. Both players were defeated by Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, eliminating them from leading the group, while they each secured a win over Elena Rybakina, who returned after more than two months off and has appeared out of rhythm so far.

The Italian delivered a solid performance against Sabalenka in her last match, challenging the world No. 1 at times, though it wasn’t enough to take a set. Paolini may be at a disadvantage on the indoor hard court, as her game relies on building up points, and she struggles to win free points or secure aces on serve. Nevertheless, her service variations have yielded positive results thus far.

Against Zheng Qinwen, Paolini will once again face one of the best servers on the Tour, with Zheng winning over 70% of her service games throughout the season and ranking second in aces on the Tour, trailing only Sabalenka. Zheng was decisively outplayed by the Belarusian in her opener and encountered challenges against Rybakina, largely due to a low first-serve percentage in both matches.

Currently, Zheng leads the head-to-head series 3-0, with all matches played in 2023, including a recent encounter in the Wuhan Open semifinals (6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in favor of the 21-year-old Chinese player). ‘Queen Wen’ is slightly favored, considering her consistency over recent months and her stronger adaptation to the court type. However, Paolini has the skills to defeat Zheng, setting up an exciting showdown to determine the tournament's third semifinalist, who will join Coco Gauff and Sabalenka.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka remains in impressive form, and her match against Rybakina offers a great chance to secure her year-end No. 1 status. The three-time Grand Slam champion has already secured comfortable wins against Zheng Qinwen and Jasmine Paolini, maintaining an unstoppable run in the tournament. She faces her 'easiest' matchup so far in the Finals, given that Rybakina has had the least playing time among the eight participants.

Any doubts regarding Sabalenka’s favoritism before the tournament have been dispelled in Riyadh, as she’s shown that she’s still the most in-form player as the season wraps up. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Rybakina 6-3, including a three-set win in the WTA Finals 2023 Round Robin stage. However, Rybakina’s current state is vastly different from last year.

Rybakina qualified on the strength of an excellent first half of the year, despite injuries and physical challenges throughout the season. Her last event was the US Open, and she returned after more than two months away from competition. In her defeats against Zheng and Paolini, she had moments of good tennis but remains out of rhythm.

Sabalenka is more favored than ever against Rybakina, but the Kazakh player, now with nothing to lose, could play more freely, especially after facing two high-caliber opponents. Nonetheless, a Rybakina victory would not threaten Sabalenka’s top-ranking lead.