WTA Race Update: Aryna Sabalenka extends lead, while Swiatek and Gauff miss chance to close gap

Ending the WTA 1000 Canadian Open, several stars added a good number of points to their North American hardcourt swing totals. In the WTA Race to Riyadh, there were some movements, with Victoria Mboko and Naomi Osaka having the biggest jumps on the Tour.

The teenage Canadian advanced nearly 60 positions—from No. 83 to No. 24—while Naomi Osaka advanced 26 positions—from No. 47 to No. 21. Both players decided to withdraw from the Cincinnati Open, so they will likely drop a couple of positions next week. However, the significant number of points each one earned leaves them in a great position for the final part of the season.

In the top spots, there were no major changes, with Aryna Sabalenka leading the way with 7,405 points—the only player currently qualified for the WTA Finals. Iga Swiatek is her closest pursuer with 6,113 points. The Pole slightly closed the gap with Sabalenka but missed the opportunity to put herself in a position to return to No. 1 after an early defeat in the Round of 16 in Montreal.

Third place belongs to the 2025 French Open champion Coco Gauff (4,739), who fell in the same round as Swiatek and therefore couldn't get closer to the top 2. Still, she maintains a comfortable distance from her pursuers, Madison Keys (4,330) and Mirra Andreeva (4,059)—who is out of the Cincinnati Open after a left ankle injury.

The consistency of the top 5 has been evident for practically the entire year, and they have been unmovable in the top spots for several months. For now, only Sabalenka is classified for the WTA Finals, although the Grand Slam champions (Keys, Gauff, and Swiatek) also have their qualification virtually secured, considering that major champions only need to be in the top 20 at the end of the season to qualify.

In Andreeva's case, with her two WTA 1000 titles this season, only a disaster could leave her out of the Finals. The Russian's recent injury in Montreal has already forced her out of the Cincinnati Open, and doubts are beginning to arise about whether she will be in good condition to play the US Open. Still, only a disaster could leave her out of the WTA Finals in Riyadh, considering that in previous years no player with more than 4,000 points has ever been left out of the qualification zone.

There are three spots that could be the most contested, although it has consistently been the same players who have held them. The Americans Amanda Anisimova (3,583) and Jessica Pegula (3,375) have been the immediate pursuers of the top 5 for most of the season.

If they manage to maintain their rhythm, it will be difficult for them to drop positions, and the US Open will be key to defining a potential qualification for the Finals. Both are fan favorites as locals in Cincinnati and New York, which may be a factor that gives them the final push to qualify.

The 8th spot for now belongs to Elena Rybakina—who recently left Jasmine Paolini behind and is appearing in a qualifying zone for the first time this season. The Kazakh reached the semifinals in Montreal, which despite the disappointment of another loss in a deep run, gave her a good number of points that allow her to pull away from Jasmine Paolini. The 2022 Wimbledon champion must maintain good form in the coming weeks, with several players who are candidates to leave her behind and get one of the qualifying spots for Riyadh.

The Italian Jasmine Paolini and the Ukrainian Elina Svitolina complete the top 10 for now. Two experienced players who have stayed in the top tier and are closely following the qualifying positions. The 2-time Grand Slam finalist has lost ground in the Race, considering some adverse results in the last month, although her title at the Rome Open gave her a certain margin for error.

Another player who is making waves in the upper zone is Clara Tauson, who advanced a couple of positions from No. 13 to No. 11 (after reaching the semifinals in Canada), coming close to the top 10. She was only prevented from entering the privileged group by a good campaign from Svitolina, who reached the quarterfinals, which allowed her to stay within the top 10 so far this season.

The Canadian Open champion, Victoria Mboko, also took huge steps forward in the Race, advancing to the top 25. Not only will this be reflected in her ranking—which will see her enter the upcoming US Open as a seeded player—but it also gives her a comfortable position in the Race at No. 24. The Canadian is in a great position to start 2026 in the top tier of the rankings and maintain a seeded spot for the most important tournaments.

On the other hand, Naomi Osaka, the finalist in Montreal, will have to overcome a tough loss in the final, although her level of competition is great news after her recent separation from Patrick Mouratoglou. Osaka reached No. 21 in the Race, and like Mboko, she secured a last-minute spot among the seeds for the upcoming US Open.