“She’s the No.1 player in the world”: Naomi Osaka previews Aryna Sabalenka clash at Indian Wells

Naomi Osaka advanced to the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open Indian Wells after defeating Camila Osorio 6-1, 3-6, 6-1, setting up a highly anticipated showdown with world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. The four-time Grand Slam champion recovered from a second-set dip to regain control in the decider, continuing a positive run at the tournament where she captured the title in 2018.

The victory keeps Osaka’s momentum building in Indian Wells as she looks to re-establish herself among the leading contenders on the WTA Tour. After stepping away from competition for much of 2023 and gradually rebuilding her form since returning, the Japanese star has shown increasing consistency this week in the California desert.

Speaking after the match, Osaka acknowledged the challenge that awaits against Sabalenka, describing the encounter with the top-ranked player as both exciting and motivating. “I’m excited to play her,” Osaka said, highlighting the opportunity to test herself against the top-ranked player as she continues her return to the sport’s highest level.

Although Osaka and Sabalenka are now two of the most recognisable names in women’s tennis, the pair have met only once before. Their lone meeting came during the fourth round of the 2018 US Open, a match Osaka still remembers clearly as one of the toughest tests of her title-winning campaign.

That tournament ultimately produced Osaka’s first Grand Slam title, marking a major turning point in her career. Sabalenka, meanwhile, was still establishing herself on the tour at the time but has since developed into one of the sport’s most consistent and powerful competitors.

“I do remember it just because I felt like in that tournament, that was the hardest match for me, and I remember thinking, like, we’re both going to get very far," Osaka commented during her press conference. "So, yeah, obviously I was right. But yeah, no, it was definitely a really difficult match. It's really cool to see how far we both have come.”

Since that meeting in New York, both players have followed different trajectories before converging again near the top of the sport. Sabalenka has risen to the No.1 ranking through consistent results at the biggest tournaments, while Osaka is now working her way back toward the elite after time away from the tour.

For Osaka, the upcoming match represents an opportunity to measure her current level against the tour’s most dominant player.

Before turning her attention fully to Sabalenka, Osaka had to navigate a challenging encounter with Osorio. After racing through the opening set, she lost momentum in the second as errors began to creep into her game and the Colombian extended rallies.

Osaka admitted afterward that frustration became a factor during the middle stages of the match. However, she said the key to regaining control in the deciding set was a deliberate mental reset, focusing on maintaining a positive mindset and narrowing her attention to each individual point.

“Honestly, I just told myself to be more positive. I think in the second set, I just got really frustrated with a lot of mistakes that I made, and I let it kind of consume me, in a way. In the third set, I just tried to take it point by point and not look too far ahead.”

The adjustment proved decisive. Osaka broke early in the third set and quickly reasserted her authority from the baseline, closing out the match comfortably to secure her place in the next round. “Yeah, definitely. I think it was a really tough match for me, and I remember I lost to her last year here, so it was just really good to get the win this time around.”

During the press conference, Osaka also reflected more broadly on the concept of “tennis IQ,” a term frequently used to describe players’ understanding of tactics and match situations. In her view, the ability to read the game is not something innate but rather something developed through experience and study.

She suggested that while some players appear to grasp these aspects naturally, others develop them over time by analysing matches and discussing strategy in depth. “I definitely don’t think it's something you're born with. I think it's something you pick up over the years, whether it's something that comes naturally or not.”

Osaka also pointed to players known for their feel for the game when discussing the concept, mentioning Nick Kyrgios as an example of someone with strong tactical awareness. “I think Nick Kyrgios… he has a pretty high tennis IQ too.”

With the win over Osorio, Osaka moves into one of the most intriguing matches of the tournament’s second week. Her clash with Sabalenka will bring together two former Grand Slam champions at different stages of their careers — one established as the current No.1, the other continuing a gradual return to the top of the sport.