WTA Season Review: Sabalenka and Swiatek continue to dazzle as Paolini and Navarro lead success stories

As the ranking battle ensues between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, on paper it shows a gulf between the top two and the rest of women's tennis but in reality it is a sport which is thriving better than ever in our latest analysis.

Iga Swiatek sits number one ahead of the WTA Finals and with no other WTA 1000 tournaments remaining this season, it will be a battle again at the Year End Finals. Albeit in reverse, Swiatek will likely have to win in order to keep top spot. While Sabalenka remains only 65 points behind so in reality will take over in the coming months anyway.

Albeit it is likely one that will go back and forth depending on how Sabalenka does at the Australian Open. Swiatek has remained atop this season despite Sabalenka winning more Grand Slam titles in particular. But the period of Middle Eastern tournaments which Sabalenka skipped robbed her of a chance to take top spot then and has stopped her taking it already now.

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Current state of WTA Rankings

1 – Swiatek (=) – 9.785

2 – Sabalenka (=) – 9.716

3 – Gauff (+1) – 5.983

4 – Pegula (-1) – 5.785

5 – Rybakina (=) – 5.481

6 – Paolini (=) – 5.323

7 – Zheng (=) – 4.480

8 – Navarro (=) – 3.698

9 – Collins (=) – 3.177

10 – Haddad Maia (+2) – 3.096

But this in itself sits a 3,733 gap between second and third place and albeit the rest of the top 10 is fairly close it shows a small gulf between them. While it can be said that in Grand Slams, that is apparent with Sabalenka winning most of the Slams and Swiatek and Krejcikova cleaning up the rest, the tour as a whole is still an open cheque book.

The rise of Paolini, Navarro in 2024

As has been evidenced in the past with Maria Sakkari for instance who has dropped like a stone, staying in the higher echelons of the game is pretty easy no matter results. But rising up perhaps is harder than expected due to the yearly cycle.

So it very much comes and goes. For the likes of Danielle Collins who will retire and Beatriz Haddad Maia who have sat on the periphery of the top 10 most of the season, it has been a real back and forth with a big group of players.

But also 2024 has heralded the rise of a few notable names as those around them fall off and they get better. Jasmine Paolini was a player who has got better year on year but perhaps wasn't expected to reach the heights she has in this season. She won Dubai which given the different WTA 1000 title winners this season and the fact she was playing an inspired Anna Kalinskaya perhaps wasn't a surprise. But she went on to reach back-to-back Grand Slam finals.

Jasmine Paolini has been a real success story of this year.

She will make her Riyadh debut next month at the WTA Finals and is a welcome addition to the field. While Emma Navarro is unlikely to play in Riyadh despite her excellent season but has beena. lesson despite the billionaire bashing she gets about playing smaller level.

She has come up through the WTA 125k and ITF system and is now World No.8 for her troubles and will continue to rise in the coming year especially with Elena Rybakina for instance likely to drop a load of points. Qinwen Zheng has remained a constant in tournaments and so while the gulf is there in terms of the top two, women's tennis certainly is in good health in terms of the rivalries every week.

It perhaps will take just one name in order to breach the gap and while many have flirted Sabalenka and Swiatek remain the same at the top.

Gauff's rise and fall, Pegula's rise again

Many have staked a claim to the third and fourth spots in this so-called WTA leading duo but none have realistically had the consistency in particular of Sabalenka.

Swiatek shows weaknesses outside of clay and Sabalenka is a terrifying prospect on all surfaces so when she does ascend to World Number One again, it is perhaps a true indictment of women's tennis. But who has flirted with this top two and who will rise again.

Coco Gauff has shown in recent weeks that her game is there and perhaps a change of coach from Brad Gilbert was what she needed to unlock the true potential again. But also her serve as was shown against Sabalenka albeit on both sides was poor and is the achilles heel. While she has won a Grand Slam now, she remains an uncertainty.

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Pegula is perhaps more likely off current evidence. She has played superbly since being dogged by injury issues in the middle of the season and has long been one of the WTA's most consistent players. The fact that she has made the WTA Finals after being injured for most of the clay court season says a lot about her form this summer.

She has employed two new coaches who seem to be doing the job and allowed her to take the next step into top tennis by beating her Quarter-Final duck and despite losing to Sabalenka in the final, she showed that she is ready for that top table and to challenge the leading two.

Rybakina's rapid descent and returning lights

Elena Rybakina in particular has been the conundrum of the season. The fact that she has still qualified for the WTA Finals despite hardly playing all summer shows you all you need to know about her early season form.

She was frightening at times early in 2024. But with Stefano Vukov now being fired who was subject to criticism which was proven to be somewhat correct if reports are to be believed, she stands at a crossroads.

She will play the WTA Finals in Riyadh but truth betold has no semblance of form and hasn't played since giving up before her second round match at the US Open in September. So which Rybakina will turn up is a mystery, but also at the same time she has often showed that when she suddenly turns up again, it is either ill Rybakina or top level. No inbetween. So she may be able to pick that up again. But even so, there are questions to be answered ahead of 2025.

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But there isn't for players below in the rise. Mirra Andreeva is now in the top 20 and will look to continue her rapid ascent next year. Diana Shnaider too has been the top Russian talent alongside her silver medal teammate and perhaps unheralded at that in comparison.

It is players too like Karolina Muchova who really catch the eye. A player with a big fanbase which is evidenced by the love she has been shown as she has returned to her best, she reached the semi-finals of the US Open and perhaps if she wasn't ill would've gone further. She then lost to Gauff in the final of the China Open. She has defended her slew of ranking points and in a reverse Raducanu, it really is the only way is up now. So while the gulf sits at the top, further down provides a lot more challenges and a lot more rivalries than men's tennis perhaps. It is all about unlocking that now and finding the next suitable challenger.