ANALYSIS: A look at must-watch men's US Open first round ties including Draper-Zhang, Shelton-Thiem

The US Open draw is out, and there are a handful of really interesting first-round matches that we’ll examine closely.

The first round in most events is pretty non-consequential because the seeds don’t play them, so most of the biggest tennis starts are not part of the first round. That’s different at Grand Slams because every round, including the first round, matters. Sometimes, the first round matters most because starting well is really important. You don’t want to get dragged into a 4-5 hour battle in the opening round, which can throw off the rest of your event. Alexander Zverev has a bit of experience with that, and recently, too.

If we look at his 2024 French Open campaign, we’ll see that he kind of complicated the earlier rounds quite a bit. His 3rd and 4th matches were 5-set victories, and by the time he made the final, he was too tired to really play his best. That’s how the earlier rounds can matter, so you need to do really well. Due to the strength of Grand Slams, some of those are pretty complicated. Just this year, Zverev faced Rafael Nadal in the first round of Roland Garros.

So, at this year’s US Open, we have a couple of really interesting first-round matches, and we’re going to go over a handful of them and why we should definitely keep an eye on them. Some of these could have major implications for the draw as they feature plenty of seed, but in general, they’re just fascinating tennis matchups, and that’s how we’ll approach them.

The first one is actually a matchup we got last year. It’s Ben Shelton taking on Dominic Thiem, which happened at last year’s US Open as well. The problem is that it was never fully played. Thiem would retire after only one set due to stomach issues, but this time around, we’ll hopefully get a full match. Before Thiem retired, it was actually a really fun match in which he troubled Shelton quite a bit.

This year’s match will be even more special as it might be the final time we see Thiem in New York. He’s retiring at the end of the year, so this is his last US Open. As it is the only Grand Slam he’s won, it’s a special place for him. What better way to celebrate his legacy with a match against one of the most exciting tennis players of today? His chances of winning are pretty slim because he only won 8 matches all year and Shelton is generally in better form.

One of the most intriguing matchups of the opening round of the US Open is between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Thanasi Kokkinakis. It’s a fascinating clash between two players capable of producing amazing tennis. The potential for an upset is high, especially considering Kokkinakis's recent strong performances. His form has been better than Tsitsipas's, adding an extra layer of excitement to this match.

Tsitsipas has had some early exits in New York in recent years, and he’s certainly beatable. The serve of forehand and Kokkinakis are likely to do a lot of damage on these faster courts in New York, and it’s just an amazing matchup. Both are also ethnically Greek, so that’s an interesting added context to the match. We’ll have lots of Greeks in the house who will bring the passion, and the Aussies never disappoint to back their players, so overall it just promises to be a must-watch affair. Can’t get much better than that in the opening round. Their only match so far happened at the 2021 Australian Open, and it was full of fireworks, as Tsitsipas won 3-2.

Another fascinating first-round matchup that has all the makings of an upset is between Holger Rune and Brandon Nakashima. The latter is a US player who is very familiar with the courts in New York and, generally, US hard courts. Like many Americans, he grew up on them and possesses the typical skillset of a strong serve and powerful forehand. It’s more than enough to cause trouble to any player, and he’s generally proven himself to be quite calm on the big stage.

Nakashima has also played pretty solid tennis lately, so many things point to him playing a really solid match against Rune. Due to Rune's volatility so far in his career, there is always a chance that he will make a shocking effort and lose. He’s not been in the best shape recently, though he’s played better than he did in many weeks before that.

It’s important to note that Nakashima beat Rune in both of their matches, including their most recent one in Shanghai last year, which was 6-0 6-2, so he’s no stranger to beating him.

This match is guaranteed to be a fiery affair simply because of the players involved. Corentin Moutet is a fascinating player who is no stranger to controversy. The French player often clashes with crowds, and playing in New York, a tough crowd to please, will be a challenge. He’s facing one of their own in Sebastian Korda, which promises to be a thrilling match.

Besides being a fascinating matchup between a straightforward player like Korda and somewhat of a tennis magician in Moutet, it’s also the scene where it will happen that will make it interesting. You can be assured that Moutet will pick a fight with the crowd as a way to motivate himself more, and the crowd will respond with the same energy. That will be fabulous, and if he brings his tennis, we might get 4 or five sets of that, which is only a bonus.

Korda has looked super solid lately, and he's one of the players to watch if he truly gets on a roll. This is a serious challenge, though, so he'll need to be careful not to disappoint.

Another interesting matchup will be between Zhang and Draper. Zhang is a tricky Chinese player who has a monster serve and powerful forehand and generally plays with a lot of power in his shots. He bested Casper Ruud last year in New York so he's no stranger to beating a seed. It's a player for whom you have to prepare to face because if you give him a chance he will beat you and that's the danger for Draper.

When it comes to Draper, well, he's already had a pretty big run in New York a few years ago. He's got the skills to do so again and is being pushed by a new coach to take more risks in his play, which is always beneficial on a fast court like this. He'll certainly fancy his chances in this matchup, and he's been pretty solid in recent weeks.

What makes this one really interesting, though, is the implications it could have on the draw. The winner of this match will likely face Carlos Alcaraz, and that's an interesting tidbit, especially as Draper beat Alcaraz earlier this year. If they face each other again in New York, that would be a must watch match that might even yield a major surprise.

One of the best players of this year has been Lorenzo Musetti, who is currently 15th in the race. That’s a far better mark than in years past, and he’ll certainly be a name to watch in New York. It's not the best conditions for him, but he has proven himself to be quite adaptable at this year’s Wimbledon.

It’s the first US Open back for Reilly Opelka. He’s been away from the sport for a very long time and hasn’t played in New York since 2021. Funnily enough, he played Lorenzo Musetti that year and bested him in three sets. The Italian now gets a chance to avenge that loss, and he’s likely to considering that Opelka returned just recently. He hasn’t been that great, and he is definitely not on the level where he was before his injury troubles started.

The final really interesting one is between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik. The Canadian has had some solid showings in New York in the past, but his level remains inconsistent. That’s been the case this year and quite recently, as well.

Mensik is a rising young player with a tremendous forehand and good serve, and he’ll certainly be a danger to anybody on these courts. Auger-Aliassime is also a very beatable player, so this is one of those matches that could prove to be an upset.

We're talking about two very streaky players who are both capable of beating each other. Four sets are almost guaranteed, and who knows, we might even get the 5. What's clear, though, is that it's going to be a fascinating matchup that should be a proper delight for tennis fans.