ANALYSIS: Can Novak Djokovic win a Grand Slam again after Australian Open loss?

Former world No. 1 Novak Djokovic lost in the semifinals of the Australian Open 2025 against German Alexander Zverev. The Serb, who had a fantastic performance against Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals, suffered an injury in that match and had to retire at the end of the first set of the match against the current No. 2. Will Nole have enough fuel in the tank to be crowned again in a major?

Tennis fans who were waiting for the arrival of the 25th Grand Slam title of the Serb will have to be patient. Novak Djokovic has left some doubts as to whether he still has what it takes to win a major;

No one can argue that in Melbourne Novak had a formidable performance, winning with relative ease the duels in the early rounds and deploying all his repertoire to defeat the world number 3 and winner of 4 majors, Carlos Alcaraz. The duel against the Spaniard was one of the most anticipated of the tournament after the main draw was revealed.

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Djokovic, number 7 in the world ranking, arrived in Melbourne after a 2024 in which injuries and prolonged breaks were the main news, with the Serb focusing almost exclusively on winning the gold medal, a goal he had always been denied. Crowned champion of the Olympic Games, Nole opted to play only the most relevant tournaments, but he did not have the same luck as in Paris 2024.

An early loss in the US Open against Alexei Popyrin, the final lost against Jannik Sinner in the Shanghai Masters and little else was what his second half of the season left. At the end of the year he decided to withdraw from the ATP Finals and focus on other personal commitments, which caused him to start this 2025 lacking rhythm and what is worse, with little chance of moving up in the ranking.

Precisely in the ranking is one of the main problems Djokovic has in the future. The winner of 24 Grand Slam tournaments has stated that he will try to play more tournaments than last season in 2025, although he will continue to focus on the most important ones. The 37-year-old faces a dilemma, as if he prioritizes his physique during the campaign, his ranking will suffer the most.

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This inconvenience is nothing new for veterans. The season is exhausting and the calendar is packed with tournaments that serve to score points and climb in the Top. By dropping some events, Djokovic can hardly return to the top positions, being forced to face the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner or Alexander Zverev long before a hypothetical final in the Majors.

Precisely what happened in Melbourne. After the first rounds, already in the quarterfinals, meeting the current two-time Wimbledon champion was an extremely demanding challenge, both mentally and physically. While Novak proved that he can still beat the best of the new crop, it is also true that beating them all in the same tournament and playing best of 5 sets is unlikely.

By the time it's his turn to play Roland Garros, Djokovic will be close to his 38th birthday. The Parisian major has been one of the hardest for the Serb to win. Clay is synonymous with long exchanges and exhausting matches.

In addition to specialists like Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner will surely be very motivated to be crowned in the French capital. The Italian's level has been devastating since last year's US Open and he has proven time and again why he is the world No. 1.

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At Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic has won an absurd 7 titles, but in the last two seasons the undisputed king of the grass is Alcaraz, who defeated him in the finals of 2023 and 2024 (the last one very convincingly);

And not only the top 3 could put Djokovic in trouble, as a cross against one of the players who are on the rise, such as Ben Shelton or even youngsters like Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, could be a challenge for the last Olympic champion.

In New York, Jannik Sinner will go for his second title and as we mentioned before, the Italian is nowadays a step above the rest on fast courts.

This leaves Djokovic with the dilemma of trying to play more tournaments to score points and avoid the best at least until the final rounds of major tournaments, or to try to win the most important championships, at the risk that a loss will drop him down the rankings.

One thing in Nole's favor is that his physical condition has always been exceptional and he has not had to lament a large number of serious injuries. The other members of the Big-3, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal came to the end of their careers badly beaten. Rafa missed almost two full seasons before deciding to retire late last year in the Davis Cup. The Spaniard was unable to return to competition as he was accustomed to and injuries hastened his farewell.

Roger Federer, a few years older than Novak and Rafa, was also hampered by a persistent knee injury that after several surgeries, ended up forcing the Swiss master's retirement in 2022.

Djokovic's health will play a key role. He will have to find the right balance between continuity, rhythm and rest. The years do not come alone and even the most winning player in history will have in 2025 one of the toughest challenges of his entire career. It is proven that he is still at the level of the best, but to win a Grand Slam, every minute of play saved and every candidate that can be dodged in the draw is vital, especially when it comes to a tennis player who has been competing at the highest level for 20 years;

Will we see Novak Djokovic lift one more Grand Slam trophy in his career or will Jannik Sinner and company be too much for the Serbian legend?

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