ANALYSIS: The downfall of Stefanos Tsitsipas - from Monte-Carlo success to hard-court downfall

Stefanos Tsitsipas entered the professional ranks of tennis as a very talented player who was touted as someone who could achieve incredible things. Very tall, a great mover, powerful serve, great forehand, and solid net skills—there wasn’t much you could really pinpoint as a clear weakness.

The backhand was lacklustre, especially being a one-handed one and not as strong as Stan Wawrinka's. It was an okay shot but very exploitable, especially on the return. Nevertheless, he proved his worth as a tennis player pretty quickly. Wins as a teenager over Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer were certainly notable, but there was still considerable doubt that he could be one of those all-time greats.

Alexander Zverev was a player who did similar things as a youngster but failed to really impose himself later on. Would Tsitsipas follow in his footsteps? Kind of. It was a weird mix at times. The first final he ever made was in Barcelona at age 20, where he lost to Rafael Nadal.

A few months later, he would make the Canada Masters final but again lose to Rafael Nadal. The maiden trophy came only later that year in Stockholm, but it was the weakest final he played up until that point. Early on, you could see him do great things but then falter in the big moments.

Vindication would come in 2019 when he made the ATP Finals final in London. He faced Dominic Thiem there and beat him to win the biggest trophy of his career. It was the moment that made a lot of people believe that maybe he could do this thing.

Even before that final, Tsitsipas made some big finals such as the Madrid Open final and Dubai, where he lost to Roger Federer. The next few years were pretty interesting for Tsitsipas because at times he played really well and made some great results. He won the Monte-Carlo Masters, made the Roland Garros final, and generally became one of the best players in the world.

He even had a chance to become world number one at the 2022 US Open. While he hasn’t become a Grand Slam champion yet, few doubted that he had the potential for that. Over time, more and more people started to doubt his potential because his results didn’t go as well anymore. It’s tough to say what really happened because part of it is certainly a few players making a step forward and overtaking him in the pecking order.

Most notably, it was Carlos Alcaraz who bested him a few times on the tennis courts, proving comfortably that he's the better player. Jannik Sinner more recently certainly catapulted himself ahead of Tsitsipas, but he also never really overtook players like Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and similar.

A clear example of him slowly fading away can be seen in the finals he played over the years. In February 2020, Tsitsipas won the Marseille Open. It was his 10th final of his career and 5th triumph. At that point, at age 22, Tsitsipas had a 5-5 score in the finals. Two years later, that score was 7-11, so he played 8 more finals in those two years but won only two of those while losing six. Not the best of marks, certainly not a mark that’s typically attributed to a tennis player ranked in the top 10.

Fast forward to this year, that score is 11-18, so since then, he played 11 more finals but won only 4 of those, adding 7 more defeats. An 11-18 record in finals is not the best mark. Most players of his calibre have a far better mark in finals. We can look at some of his contemporaries.

Daniil Medvedev has a 20-18 record in finals, which is more in line with what people would expect from Tsitsipas. Andrey Rublev is 16-10 in finals, and Alexander Zverev has a 22-13 record. All of them have a better score than Tsitsipas, and it’s not even close. He was 5-5 at one point, which was fair, but 11-18 looks horrible. So clearly, he fell off since the start of his career, but why?

It’s a tricky thing to answer because there is no clear and concise answer. It’s not just one thing because Tsitsipas didn’t really regress as a player. He still does some of the things he did a couple of years ago, but he didn’t necessarily progress. His forehand is about the same as it was five years ago, which is a problem because the rest of the Tour improved, and if you don’t improve as much, then you’re going to be in a lot of trouble.

His backhand in some ways became even worse because players learnt how to exploit it. It’s repeatedly targeted over and over again, and it rarely holds. The confidence is what suffered the most from the early parts of his career to now. This was a player known for his fearless attitude on the court.

He would be playing Roger Federer in the Australian Open and just take it to him, attack him, and play amazing tennis. These days, we see a careful and tentative Tsitsipas who is unsure of what to do in the moment. He’s a shell of his former self, and you’d struggle to find any tennis fan or analyst who would back him to win a Grand Slam in the future.

That’s how bad it got. It got so bad that he parted ways with his father as coach. While many called for that and rejoiced when it finally happened, he famously said that it would never happen. The fact that he did signals desperation. It signals a desire for things to change, but ultimately, it’s within him because he’s the one out on the courts and playing. If he can’t figure it out, other people won’t be able to figure it out for him either.

It’s not all doom and gloom though, because the talent that he has is certainly still there. It didn’t evaporate nor can it evaporate. The Greek player has had good performances recently. He stood in the Australian Open final last year. That run wasn’t a fluke but rather earned with superb play. Unfortunately, he couldn’t overcome Novak Djokovic in the final, but he looked competitive. He looked in the match for a good chunk of it, so it was a positive experience.

He won the Monte-Carlo Masters this year. He played well at the Olympics and more generally on his beloved clay. He wasn’t able to bring that level to other surfaces, which is why he wasn’t able to keep himself in the top 10, but at times he has shown that old self, which was undoubtedly one of the best players in the world. It’s hard to say whether that will show up anymore or consistently in the future. There are a couple of things he needs to do to find his best tennis again. First of all, he needs to go back to basics and work on things that worked for him in the past, and that’s the serve and forehand. At times it seems like Tsitsipas is trying to do too much, and it hasn’t really worked out for him so far.

A good coach might help with that, so sorting the coaching situation should be one of the priorities as well. Another thing is just taking care of that mental side. It seems like he’s under a lot of pressure, and he doesn’t need to be. He’s not the number one seed at the event. Nobody really expects him to take over the Tour or even win the event that he’s playing in. Tennis is barely noticeable in Greece, so there is no external pressure. It’s all internal, and it’s a battle for his career. Tsitsipas can continue this year and be a really solid fringe Top 10 player who will make a final here and there but not win many trophies. He certainly won’t win any Grand Slams this year.

Or he can start from the basics and work his way. Find the joy in tennis again, find the passion he had when he was just a youngster starting out. If he’s able to do that, then he’s going to set himself on the right path. Then he will have a chance to become the player he was born to be. Otherwise, he’ll just keep sliding and sliding as he’s done recently. The form recently has been pretty poor, not even Top 20 worthy, and that’s heartbreaking if you just look at some of the highlights he was producing back in 2021 to 2023. It’s time to get back there again, but only he can do that. Time will tell whether he has the makings of a proper champion.