Carlos Alcaraz under threat of being surpassed as World No.2 by Alexander Zverev with Wimbledon run set to reshape US Open draw

Alexander Zverev has gone about his business at Wimbledon in a formidable manner. He has reached the semi-final in all three Grand Slam tournaments this year, and he could be rewarded for it with the world number two position in reach. If he defeats Arthur Fery, he will leap above Carlos Alcaraz with the ranking set to have a pivotal effect on the upcoming US Open.

The German has been the best of the rest in 2026, putting up some brilliant displays and consistently going deep in big tournaments, the latest being Wimbledon. While Jannik Sinner has dominated him on court with the Italian still a major stumbling block, Zverev has been enjoying his time on court since Alcaraz's injury, not having to face any of the top two until the final at least while Novak Djokovic is also not regularly seen on court these days aside from Grand Slam tournaments.

Zverev reached the semi-final of the Australian Open at the start of the year, having the chance to serve it out to win a thrilling five-set thriller. Instead, Alcaraz found another gear and took him down in a brilliant match of tennis. Since then, Zverev has been regularly bettered by Sinner at Masters 1000 level in the semi-final stages. At Indian Wells, Miami and Monte-Carlo he suffered the same frustrating result.

Madrid was the first event where Alcaraz and Sinner were both not featuring, allowing Zverev a free pathway to the final without facing a challenge from the top two. He showcased his level above the rest of the field, only to get thrashed in the final.

Roland Garros was the ultimate turning point. With Sinner and Djokovic suffering early exits, he was the favourite to win the title. Over the course of the year, these deep runs had earned him a huge tally of points. He was set to collect another 2000 while breaking new ground in winning a maiden major title against Flavio Cobolli. This is all crucial. As he gained ranking points, Alcaraz was losing them. Now, he could be paying the price.

Alcaraz has not played a tennis match since the Barcelona Open, winning his opening round match of the ATP 500 tournament before withdrawing due to a wrist injury. He had made it to the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters, losing to Sinner while being toppled off the number one spot.

He did not participate in Madrid while his title defences at Rome and Roland Garros went unanswered. The injury was so serious that he was unable to feature in any of the grass tournaments, including Wimbledon most importantly.

1,300 points are set to come off, leaving him on 8,160 points. Heading to Barcelona back in mid-April, he was on 13,240. That showcases the huge drop-off and the untimely nature of the injury. In contrast, Zverev was on 5,555. Now, he is sitting pretty with 7,980 following his semi-final run at Wimbledon. Wins over Alexander Blockx, Valentin Royer, Marcos Giron, Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz sets him up with a tie against British hero Arthur Fery.

A win on Friday will boost his overall tally on the ATP Rankings to 8,480. This safely surpasses the number Alcaraz is on. If he wins the tournament, Zverev will have 9.180 points which is still a long way off what Sinner boasts.

The reason this is crucial is that Alcaraz may be forced a very difficult route to defending his US Open title while Zverev could be benefited. Being the third seed, this may lead to him playing against Sinner in the semi-finals instead of the final. It would be a nasty tie for both of them.

On the other side of this scenario, Zverev would be on the other side of the draw from both of them. He would not meet Sinner until the final, with Alcaraz a possible semi-final threat depending on the draw.

There are still competitions beforehand to be played out. Zverev has the points from semi-finals in two Masters 1000 events to defend, most specifically the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open. Alcaraz has 1000 points on the line after his Cincinnati Open title after not competing in Toronto.

Another big question is when Alcaraz will return to the court. If his injury holds up, then he may play out a full North American hardcourt swing in the build-up to the US Open with match sharpness a priority. He is not under threat of being overtaken by anyone else as he looks to make up the ground to his rivals who have stolen a march on him in his time away from the court.