Did Nadal’s win over Djokovic in Rome prove he’s the favourite for Roland Garros?

Rafael Nadal defeated Novak Djokovic in Rome and once again showed the world how good on clay he really is.

It's sometimes hard to explain how some people get up in the morning especially considering how many miles they ran in their lives. You often get the sense that they could break down every moment as if they were made out of glass or legos.

Rafael Nadal was 21-22 when he started to have serious knee issues, partly due to his playstyle which is draining and it seemed like his career would not last long. When he returned from injury in 2015 he experienced his first major results crisis. For the first time since 2014, he did not win a Grand Slam or Masters and many thought it was the beginning of the end.

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Six years later and three weeks shy of his 35th birthday, Nadal is holding up pretty good. His bones and cartilage beneath all of that muscle mass is probably not in the best shape but still, since 2018 when he redesigned his play, he only had one injury. It was before the ATP Finals in 2019 and he was able to play through it. Nadal has some more wrinkles, his hair is thinner than it used to be but more or less it’s still Nadal. Yesterday he won yet another event for the 10th time and the narrative before the final was that he was lucky to escape against Shapovalov.

Rome was pretty important for Nadal and Novak Djokovic because both of them arrived to the eternal city out of rhythm or form. Nadal reached the QF in Monte-Carlo and Madrid and the ‘only’ won the ATP 500 Barcelona which he could have easily lost against Tsitsipas. The only other time he arrived in Rome with ‘bad results’ was in 2015 when he reached the Monte-Carlo semifinals, Madrid Finals and Barcelona R2.

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The key for him was to play several more matches building up the confidence and ultimately he left a very strong impression. He played two tough matches against Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov. Then he easily dispatched Zverev in the quarterfinals while in the finals he defeated the man who is the biggest threat to him. Even without this Rome win, he would have been the favourite in Paris.

He won the event last year after playing only 3 clay matches before it, which were his only matches in over six months. He still won the event without dropping a set.

Neutralizing Novak’s return

Djokovic too aged a bit, he will soon turn 34, some grey is starting to decorate his hair but the rubber man can still turn it up when he needs too even after spending 5 hours on the court. Rome was important for him because he crashed out of Monte-Carlo in R3. He didn’t play Madrid and at his home event in Belgrade, he was defeated in another brutal match by Aslan Karatsev. The only season when Novak got to Rome with worse results was in 2018 when he was returning from injury. So watching them in the finals was fascinating.

They decided to raise the level of play to prepare well for Roland Garros which starts in two weeks. They pulled out a higher level of tennis which those ‘next-gen’ don’t have and clashed for the 57th time. It was not as bloody as it can be but yesterday’s match was more confirmation of how much they changed over the years as players. They adapted to their age looking to shorten points. Speaking of shortening it’s fascinating how Nadal served yesterday.

Seems like if you want to know how to overcome the best returner of all time you simply have to ask Nadal because the man cracked the code. Nadal hit 84% of his first serves which completely neutralized Novak’s return. That return was good for the first few games but as the set moved along, Rafa’s serve became better. That allowed him to spank returning balls with his forehand. He had 21 winners in the first set out of which 15 were forehand winners. That sort of play meant fewer points with long rallies which suits Rafa especially after he changed his game.

Who will sleep easy?

In the 2nd set, Rafa’s percentage dipped to 61 % so it was a bit of a different story, a story where Novak could assert his game and be more aggressive. What decided the match yesterday was that Rafa could dictate play with his phenomenal forehand which was made possible by his serve. Of course, as it often happens in those sort of matches, Djokovic could have broken Nadal at 2-2 in the 3rd set. His focus dropped in the next game which allowed Nadal to break him lifting his game t another level.

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In that final set, the serving percentage climbed up to 73 % which proved more than enough. What fascinated about Nadal’s play was a new tactic he employed consistently as of late and that is the drop shot. He mostly uses it extremely well and it often comes from the forehand side which makes it hard to read.

Djokovic can be content because he raised his form when he needed to but also there is reason to be concerned. It is his 5th consecutive loss to Nadal on clay which affects the mental part of the game even if you are one of the greatest to ever do it. Especially in Paris, his level against Rafa seems to drop off a cliff.

The narrative when Djokovic loses to Nadal is that he wasn’t the real Djokovic so one needs to remind everyone that when Djokovic defeated Nadal at the Roland Garros, Nadal was not even close to being the true Nadal. It was in 2015 when he defeated him 3-0 in the quarterfinals. A year later when Djokovic won it, Nadal was only getting warmed up when he injured himself and had to withdraw in R3. In short, Novak never defeated Rafa when he was at his best in Paris.

Out of the two, it is Nadal who can sleep easy at least for a few nights. Yes, he has more wrinkles than before, his hair is thinner than it was and yes he might be in pain when he wakes up every morning. He will wear the consequences of his tennis for the rest of his life possibly even qualifying him as a person with a disability one day, but even so, defeating Rafael Nadal on clay in Paris remains the biggest challenge in sports history ever. And that is why Nadal’s win in Rome on Sunday only added certainty that Nadal is still the undisputed favourite to win the Roland Garros.