World No. 6 Novak Djokovic has managed to stay near the top of the rankings despite playing only a handful of tournaments and winning no titles in the past year. Last season, his ATP Finals qualification was in doubt for much of the year, though he ultimately secured his spot but chose not to compete.
The 24-time Grand Slam champion has played just one tournament in 2025—the Australian Open—where he delivered a strong performance until the semifinals, defeating Carlos Alcaraz along the way. However, a thigh injury forced him to retire after just one set (7-6 in Alexander Zverev’s favour).
Although his deep Grand Slam runs have helped him retain a significant number of ranking points, his closest rivals have been in top form and have more opportunities to play. As a result, a ranking drop for the Serbian seems imminent.
There were serious doubts about Djokovic’s return to the tour, with some speculating he might wait until the clay swing in April. However, he surprised many by announcing his participation in next week’s Doha Open, seemingly accelerating his recovery due to his role as a tennis ambassador in Qatar.
His physical condition in Doha remains uncertain—he could deliver a strong run or risk aggravating his injury. If that happens, he may have to skip Indian Wells and the Miami Open to ensure full recovery for the clay season.
Should that scenario unfold, Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul have a strong chance of overtaking him. Djokovic is currently guaranteed 3,900 points until the end of March, slightly above Medvedev’s 3,630. With two Masters 1000 events ahead, the Russian has a solid opportunity to leapfrog Djokovic. Likewise, an in-form Tommy Paul, who has 3,280 secured points until March, has four tournaments lined up that could propel him past the Serbian.
While Djokovic has stated that rankings are not his priority, maintaining a top-8 position is crucial for Grand Slam seedings, as it helps him avoid early-round clashes with players like Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. Dropping out of the top 8 could mean facing such opponents as early as the fourth round.
Tried to recover for today’s match but I could only push so far. Nevertheless, positives to take out of this year’s Aus Open. Congratulations to @AlexZverev for making another GS final. I wish you to win the title because you deserve it, my friend 💪🙌 pic.twitter.com/BZPyQqPk6R
— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) January 24, 2025
Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist
Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.
His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.
In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.
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