Novak Djokovic braces for a ranking drop as Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul chase him down

World No. 6 Novak Djokovic has managed to stay near the top of the rankings despite playing only a handful of tournaments and winning no titles in the past year. Last season, his ATP Finals qualification was in doubt for much of the year, though he ultimately secured his spot but chose not to compete.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion has played just one tournament in 2025—the Australian Open—where he delivered a strong performance until the semifinals, defeating Carlos Alcaraz along the way. However, a thigh injury forced him to retire after just one set (7-6 in Alexander Zverev’s favour).

Although his deep Grand Slam runs have helped him retain a significant number of ranking points, his closest rivals have been in top form and have more opportunities to play. As a result, a ranking drop for the Serbian seems imminent.

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There were serious doubts about Djokovic’s return to the tour, with some speculating he might wait until the clay swing in April. However, he surprised many by announcing his participation in next week’s Doha Open, seemingly accelerating his recovery due to his role as a tennis ambassador in Qatar.

His physical condition in Doha remains uncertain—he could deliver a strong run or risk aggravating his injury. If that happens, he may have to skip Indian Wells and the Miami Open to ensure full recovery for the clay season.

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Should that scenario unfold, Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul have a strong chance of overtaking him. Djokovic is currently guaranteed 3,900 points until the end of March, slightly above Medvedev’s 3,630. With two Masters 1000 events ahead, the Russian has a solid opportunity to leapfrog Djokovic. Likewise, an in-form Tommy Paul, who has 3,280 secured points until March, has four tournaments lined up that could propel him past the Serbian.

While Djokovic has stated that rankings are not his priority, maintaining a top-8 position is crucial for Grand Slam seedings, as it helps him avoid early-round clashes with players like Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. Dropping out of the top 8 could mean facing such opponents as early as the fourth round.

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