Preview Shanghai Masters 2024 as Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner battle in penultimate ATP 1000 of 2024 season

The Shanghai Masters is set to take place between October 2-13 and our Tournament Preview looks ahead to the action in the returning ATP 1000 tournament.

There are only two Masters left until the end of the year. The Paris Masters, which will be played at the end of the season, and the Shanghai Masters, which is coming up right now. It’s a pretty big and important event because it offers a lot of points, which are important for the Race to Turin.

This year’s race is quite a fascinating one, with lots of players vying for the final few spots, and that’s what makes this event so important. Broadly, there is also the battle for number one technically, though Jannik Sinner has basically locked that down.

There is interest in whether Novak Djokovic could do something at this year’s event as he’s back on the courts, which wasn’t a certainty, so generally, there are a lot of storylines to follow. So let’s break down who the players to watch are. We’re going to do it in tiers, talking about the favourites first, then the dark horses, and finally some other interesting matchups. So, get ready—this is our preview of the 2024 Shanghai Masters.

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Favourites

Jannik Sinner

Top of the list is Jannik Sinner, who has been a menace on the hard courts this year. He’s only lost two matches on hard courts (written before the China Open final) and with such a mark, the Italian will be a danger. He played pretty well at the event last year and will certainly be a danger this year as the top seed. His draw is pretty fair as he’ll get either Daniel Taro early on or Egor Gerasimov. Neither is a huge issue.

Neither is Tomas Etcheverry, but further down the line, it could get interesting. He has both Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils in his draw. Both have played well, especially Fils, who won the Japan Open. His half also has Daniil Medvedev, which is a pretty interesting matchup as they played some epic matches, including this year’s Australian Open. Overall, though, he is the favourite to make it to the final from his half, and he can beat anybody in a final. He’s proven it already.

Jannik Sinner will face Carlos Alcaraz once again on Wednesday before heading to Shanghai.

Carlos Alcaraz

We have to mention Carlos Alcaraz as a favourite after his most recent surgery because the Spaniard has played some pretty special tennis lately. It started at the Laver Cup but then continued at the China Open, where he played some superb tennis to make the final, which is yet to be played at the time of writing this. The Spaniard doesn’t potentially like the quickness of the courts in Shanghai, but he’s capable of doing some damage there.

His draw has been pretty fair as well, but he has some big names on his side of the draw as well. Nicolas Jarry is the biggest name closest to him in the draw. Some other names in his quarter include Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul, but in fairness, it’s not a tough quarter in terms of which seeds are in there. Jannik Sinner is by far the biggest name when it comes to his half, and they could meet in the semi-final if both win all their matches up to that point.

We got them in the final in Beijing, but we won’t be getting that final in Shanghai. However, we would take the semi-final as well.

Novak Djokovic will return over the next week.

Novak Djokovic

While Novak Djokovic bombed the US Open completely, the Serbian shouldn’t be discounted. There were some legitimate reasons to believe that Djokovic wouldn’t have a very good time. He had just won the Olympic Games, and it was a huge release for him, and it kind of looked like he didn’t have any motivation in New York. The Serbian certainly tried his best, but his best was far below what he usually can produce.

Some have speculated that he might struggle with his motivation, and it came true, so it will be interesting to see what kind of Djokovic shows up in Shanghai. He’s been good there, but it’s a new event, so we’ll see how things go. When it comes to the draw, it’s not the easiest, as he’s not as highly ranked as he once was. Alex Michelsen is a pretty tough opponent early on, especially since the American has been so good lately.

Should he go through that, Djokovic might have to face Flavio Cobolli and then Frances Tiafoe. Those are some tough players, and he has some other tough players in his quarter—Andrey Rublev made the final last year, and he’s in there as well. Grigor Dimitrov has looked really sharp lately, and he’s in there too, so it won’t be very easy for Djokovic.

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Dark Horses

There are only two dark horses in our minds, and they are Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. They’re mostly dark horses based on what they can do rather than what they’ve actually produced lately, as neither has been playing that great. Zverev has been battling a lung inflammation which has given him trouble breathing. Despite that, he’ll keep on playing, which is an interesting choice. Daniil Medvedev hasn’t looked really sharp lately, and neither has Zverev, so their dark horse status is mostly based on what they’ve been able to do in the past year and generally on hard courts. Both can find their best level at any time, so it’s not impossible for them to do well at the event, but it’s certainly not as expected as some might think.

Zverev has a very tough draw as he has Karen Khachanov in his quarter. He also has Lorenzo Musetti in his corner, so it will be pretty tough to get out of there. Lots of players can give a compromised Zverev problems. Medvedev, as we noted above, is in Sinner’s quarter, and he didn’t have the best of times against him in the past, so it certainly won’t be easy for him.

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Storylines to follow

Alcaraz v Sinner

There are a couple of storylines we have to note before this event. The first of those is the battle between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. We can technically call it the battle for number one, but it’s not really the battle for number one because Sinner will likely finish as world number one regardless of what happens.

It’s more of an eye test, meaning which player will likely establish himself as the best player in the world. Alcaraz was that player during the summer, but in the past month or so, Jannik Sinner seems to have made himself that player.

This event is one of the few events in the coming weeks where they will battle it out. In reality, the China Open was the first one, as they’re going to contest the final there. It will be interesting to see which player can finish this year on the higher note, which would be a good introduction to what might happen early next year. Alcaraz has been pretty lacklustre in Australia so far, and Jannik Sinner won his maiden Grand Slam trophy there.

Novak Djokovic's return

This is a pretty straightforward one, and it’s mostly about what Novak Djokovic can do at the event. The Olympics kind of proved that the Serbian is still capable of playing superb tennis when he really plays his best. It was kind of doubtful that he could really play at that level. But then we finally saw it in Paris, and now it’s about seeing whether it was just a throwback performance or generally something that will make a return.

The US Open didn’t go well, so people want to see whether he can bounce back well after that match. In any case, the performance of Novak Djokovic will be of interest to many people.

Road to Turin

The Road to Turin is mostly about which players will put their name in the top 8. There are a couple of big names battling for that, and since this event gives out some of the most points players can win until the end of the year, it’s certainly an event to watch in that context. This battle might be the most exciting we’ve had in a couple of years, so generally, it’s going to be something that’s watched until the end of the year.

Tennis in China

This is a minor thing but could have big implications in the future. Tennis events won’t stop happening in China anytime soon, but it seems the popularity has waned a bit. It might just be situational, but seeing how the biggest ATP event in China goes might be a good indicator of whether the country will keep as many events as it has so far. Chinese tennis is booming with lots of players coming through, but it seems like the spectators don’t show up as much, which isn’t ideal. A relatively minor thing but something to watch if you’re interested in the grand scheme of things.

History of Shanghai Masters

• 2009: Nikolay Davydenko def. Rafael Nadal, 7–6(7–3), 6–3

• 2010: Andy Murray def. Roger Federer, 6–3, 6–2

• 2011: Andy Murray def. David Ferrer, 7–5, 6–4

• 2012: Novak Djokovic def. Andy Murray, 5–7, 7–6(13–11), 6–3

• 2013: Novak Djokovic def. Juan Martín del Potro, 6–1, 3–6, 7–6(7–3)

• 2014: Roger Federer def. Gilles Simon, 7–6(8–6), 7–6(7–2)

• 2015: Novak Djokovic def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, 6–2, 6–4

• 2016: Andy Murray def. Roberto Bautista Agut, 7–6(7–1), 6–1

• 2017: Roger Federer def. Rafael Nadal, 6–4, 6–3

• 2018: Novak Djokovic def. Borna Ćorić, 6–3, 6–4

• 2019: Daniil Medvedev def. Alexander Zverev, 6–4, 6–1
• 2023: Hubert Hurkacz def. Andrey Rublev 6–3, 3–6, 7–6