Top-10 Survival at Stake: Andrey Rublev, Novak Djokovic and Grigor Dimitrov among 5 fighting for their spot

The Australian Open could lead to several shifts in the top-10 rankings, with multiple players on the verge of dropping out of the elite group. Eighth-ranked Andrey Rublev is separated from his next three challengers — Novak Djokovic, Grigor Dimitrov, and Tommy Paul — by just 25 points, with Stefanos Tsitsipas only 100 points behind them.

Early elimination for any of these players could result in losing their top-10 status. They will need to closely monitor their rivals' performances to exit the year's first Grand Slam still within the top-10.

Potential Djokovic vs Dimitrov showdown, Tommy Paul push for top-10 first appareance

Starting from the first round, players will battle to maintain or secure a spot in the top-10. Participation in the opening round grants each player 10 points, while advancing to the second round offers a total of 45 points — potentially pushing early exits out of the top-10.

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After removing points defended from last year's Melbourne performance, Andrey Rublev holds eighth place with 3,120 points, while Djokovic and Dimitrov are tied for ninth and tenth with just 20 points fewer (3,100). Tommy Paul is the first contender vying for a top-10 position. Advancing one round more than any of the leading trio would mark Paul's debut in the top-10.

Tsitsipas currently holds 2,995 points. Reaching the third round would not change his ranking, but a potential fourth-round appearance would secure him 180 points (raising his total to 3,175) and guarantee eighth place if his competitors exit at least one round earlier.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at 2023 Australian Open, he reached the final and lost against Novak Djokovic.

The Greek has a 24-7 (77%) record at the tournament, reaching the final once (2023) and three semifinals (2019, 2021, 2022), suggesting strong chances of advancing several rounds despite his lower ranking this year.

Dimitrov and Djokovic could face off in a critical fourth-round match, which may determine whether both players remain in the top-10. Djokovic's potential third-round opponents include Reilly Opelka or Tomas Machac, marking the Serbian's first major challenge, followed by a possible clash with Dimitrov in the fifth round — assuming favourites advance as expected.

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Meanwhile, Rublev opens against rising star Joao Fonseca, who is in excellent form, making this one of the most exciting first-round matches. Many believe the Brazilian has a chance to upset the top-10 Russian, making it a must-watch clash for Rublev’s top-10 ambitions.

Tommy Paul appears to have a favourable draw for a deep run. His first seeded opponent is Alejandro Tabilo, who has struggled with consistency recently, followed by a likely fourth-round meeting with sixth-seeded Casper Ruud, who is seen as one of the most vulnerable top-8 players in this tournament.

Top-10 fight

8. Rublev 3120

9. Djokovic 3100

10. Dimitrov 3100

11. Paul 3095

12. Tsitsipas 2995

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