
This morning the news broke that officially Rafael Nadal was not going to play Wimbledon this year. The Spaniard is now focused on the Olympic Games, which will be played on the clay of Roland Garros, and already commented in Paris that it would be very risky now to change surface with the physical problems he has had to face throughout his career, and more to move to grass.
On the other hand, Novak Djokovic is already walking without crutches after his knee operation after injuring his meniscus in his Roland Garros round of 16 match against Francisco Cerúndolo, which prevented him from taking the court for the quarterfinals against Casper Ruud. Although the recovery seems to be going well, it would also be taking a risk, perhaps unnecessary, the fact of going to a surface that punishes the physical as much as grass before the Games, when it is his great goal of the year and the only prestigious title that he has yet to achieve in the world of tennis.
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Therefore, the list of favorites for Wimbledon has been further reduced. Although neither the Spaniard nor the Serb seem to be at their best anymore, they have achieved so much and have made such an impact on the sport that they should never be ruled out when they have a racquet in their hands. In the following article we will review the players who have the best chances to lift the trophy, and some others to keep in mind.
Carlos Alcaraz
Now it would be easy to say that he is the top favorite. With the absence of Djokovic, the confidence after winning Roland Garros and that he is the defending champion, everything indicates that he is the biggest candidate. He has not lost on grass since Wimbledon 2022, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in the round of 16. Last season he won Queen's and his second Grand Slam, and this year it seems that he will use the same strategy, playing in London two tournaments.
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Jannik Sinner.
He is the best player so far this year and in 2023 he reached the semifinals before losing to Novak Djokovic. He has a game that can be adapted to grass although it remains to be seen if it is as good as that of Alcaraz. In this course, he has only lost three matches, two of them against his generation rival, with whom he could only cross paths in the final, as they will be the first two seeds of the tournament.
Daniil Medvedev.
He may not have a game that suits grass as well as his main rivals but last year he reached the same round as Sinner, semifinals. In his case, he couldn't beat Alcaraz, who defeated him easily in three sets. But the Russian is a tough nut to crack and with his level of tennis he must always be taken into account because it is not impossible that he surprises.
Alexander Zverev
He has never advanced past the round of 16 at Wimbledon but he is living one of the best moments of his tennis career. Who would have thought it two years ago when he shattered his ankle in the Roland Garros semifinals against Rafael Nadal. After reaching the semis of the Australian Open and the final in Paris, maybe it's time to complete the Grand Slam semifinals and why not, win his first trophy in this category.
The Americans
The American is characterized by a powerful serve and a good game at the net. It is the ideal style for Wimbledon. Taylor Fritz, quarterfinalist in 2022, Tommy Paul or Ben Shelton could have something to say in this edition. Frances Tiafoe is not going through his best professional moment but last year he conquered the Stuttgart Open on grass.
Other candidates
Holger Rune reached the quarterfinals in 2023 and may have a game that suits grass, Grigor Dimitrov is living a second youth, Francisco Cerúndolo won a tournament on this surface last year. Alexander Bublik, Christopher Eubanks, Jan-Lennard Struff or Alex de Miñaur could surprise some favorite and go far but it seems difficult to see them in the final and even more to win the title.

Samuel GillEditor-in-Chief
Samuel Gill is the Chief Content Officer (CCO) of TennisUpToDate.com, a role he has held since 2020. He is responsible for editorial governance across the platform, including setting content standards, overseeing accuracy and consistency, and guiding long-term editorial strategy. Since joining, he has contributed more than 10,000 articles and editorial pieces across the TennisUpToDate network, playing a central role in the daily operation and development of the site.
Based in Leicester, Samuel has a broad background in tennis media. In his current role, he works closely with editors and writers to ensure coverage meets clear journalistic standards, with particular attention to verification, consistency, and timely updates when new information becomes available.
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