What's next for Rafael Nadal after sudden withdrawal from Laver Cup

Rafael Nadal has been in the sport of tennis for close to two decades now. That’s professionally, but if we count everything, then it’s basically over three decades now, so his whole life.

There is no Rafael Nadal without tennis, and there is no tennis without Rafael Nadal; such is the bond between the sport he loves and grew up playing, and the legacy he will leave in the sport once he retires.

Retirement of a legend is never a welcome sight, but it’s part of every sport. It happens as time remains undefeated and comes for us all.

Nadal is getting there with hastened steps, as we can’t say that things are slowly heading that way. That was a couple of years ago, while these days, it’s quickly approaching, and it could be any one of these days. The case of Andy Murray proved how insistent media can be when they smell that a retirement is close. The Brit was asked about it over and over again, and while he kept shutting it down for a while, eventually, he did announce that he was going to retire. It came when he finally knew that it was going to happen, and he was at peace with himself.

Something similar will happen with Nadal as well. The Spaniard has been asked this question countless times in the past year or so. Every time he’s been asked, the answer has been some variation of “I don’t know.” It’s not so much Nadal deflecting the question; it’s simply the truth. He doesn’t know when he will retire because he technically is still holding out hope that he will be able to return to competitive tennis. He believes himself capable of getting there, and one should not really doubt him. It’s Rafael Nadal after all, and while it hasn’t looked very pretty recently, it’s pretty clear that at times, he can still play capable tennis. It mostly comes down to his body, and it hasn’t been that good this year.

If we look at how 2024 went so far, he started off down under in Australia. He signed up to play at the Brisbane event, and he played really well. He won two matches and was very close to winning a third, but his body broke down, and he picked up an injury there. That injury would ultimately force him to withdraw from the Australian Open, so we wouldn’t see him compete for a while. Nadal travelled to the US for the Indian Wells Masters in March, hoping to make a comeback there. He first took on Carlos Alcaraz in the Pickleball Slam in Las Vegas, and while he played pretty well, another injury setback would force him to abandon plans of playing at the Indian Wells Masters.

His next step would be the clay season, as Nadal took time to properly prepare for it. It was the big test everybody was waiting on because clay tennis would be a bit easier on his body, and many people expected him to do really well on it. It started in Barcelona, his final time there—something he announced ahead of the event—and it didn’t go that well. He was beaten in the second match there by Alex de Minaur. The comeback continued in Madrid, where he actually won three matches before finally getting beaten by Jiri Lehecka. The Italian Open ended against Hubert Hurkacz in the second round, and that concluded his prep for Roland Garros.

Positives were taken as he was able to play all of those matches without experiencing too many issues, but overall, the level wasn’t there. It was pretty clear that Nadal wasn’t able to play the way he wanted to, and whether that is satisfactory for him remains to be seen. He’s always maintained that he’s remaining in the sport for as long as he can compete with the best, but he wasn’t able to do that during the matches.

The best test came at Roland Garros, where he faced Alexander Zverev in the opening round. It was a brutal draw and the worst that could have happened, but he got a chance to face a player who would end up in the final some 14 days later, and he didn’t do that well. He won a set against him, but overall, he found himself to be quite overwhelmed for much of the match.

Since then, he’s only played two events. He played in Bastad to prep for the Olympics, and he did well, making the final, but he faced players that aren’t really top or anywhere close to it. He then played at the Olympics, and while he bested Marton Fucsovics in the first round (a solid win), he then had to face Novak Djokovic, and he didn’t really show his best.

Djokovic was able to easily beat Nadal, even though the Spaniard had a bit of resurgence in the second set. That match basically hammered down the point that Nadal likely won’t be able to challenge for Grand Slams anymore. Djokovic simply outplayed him in every facet of the game, and that’s not ideal. Nadal was well prepared, he felt confident heading in, but it was clear that he’s not on that level again.

Of course, there is a chance that by some miracle Nadal finds that level again, but everything we’ve seen from him in the past months shows us that it’s likely not going to happen. The only way it could happen is if Nadal has a really healthy spell where he can play many events and, by sheer willpower, get to a really solid level. The problem with that is that his body hasn’t really proved itself capable of handling that much stress. The clay stretch was the healthiest he’s been all season long, but he paid a price for it. Not playing as much since Roland Garros didn’t just come down to him not wanting to put his body through the ringer.

It’s pretty likely that his body simply isn’t fit enough to play. The proof of that probably lies in what happened recently. Ever since the Olympics, Nadal maintained that he was going to play at the 2024 Laver Cup and then see what he will do for the rest of the year. He was adamant that he was going to play at the event, confirming it publicly multiple times, and then boom, he’s out of the event. An announcement from the Laver Cup a few days ago confirmed that Nadal won’t be playing at the event.

According to reports, he’s been practising all this time, so if that’s true, why hasn’t he signed up to play for the event? Well, he might not be able to because his body is simply not fit enough to play. He said it himself in the announcement that his body simply didn’t allow him to compete at this time. Nadal didn’t really say anything beyond that, certainly didn’t imply any kind of retirement, but with this latest withdrawal, you have to really think about it. Plenty of tennis analysts speculated that Nadal might pull the trigger at the Laver Cup, mirroring what Roger Federer did two years ago. That’s clearly false, but they’re right in the sense that retirement seems to be on the horizon.

Nadal won’t play in anything else this year, per his own words, though he’s scheduled to make an appearance in Riyadh in October at the exhibition there. We know that he’s the Saudi ambassador for tennis, so he will certainly be there. Whether he plays remains to be seen, but in any case, next year will probably be it. What’s next for Nadal is likely one final comeback attempt, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll probably pull the trigger. He’s not getting any younger, so he certainly won’t feel better when it comes to his body.

That’s a one-way street trending in a very clear direction. His patience is also likely going to run out because, at one point in time, he’s likely going to simply recognise that it’s futile. He’s come close at times this year, as his tone changed over the months. It’s pretty clear that Nadal recognises himself that this is likely it, but getting over the hump and admitting to yourself that you’re done takes a while because it’s not an easy thing. Leaving a sport that gave you everything will take a while, but for now, that’s where it’s headed.

We’ll see what the coming months bring and when he returns to the courts. It wouldn’t be shocking if he retired without coming back to the courts, because with Nadal, you simply never know. He’s changed stances and opinions on the fly before, so that wouldn’t be totally shocking, but retirement is certainly closer than Grand Slams. It’s pretty clear that we’re not going to see Nadal winning any major trophies in the future, not unless something dramatic happens.