Who benefits from Jannik Sinner's exit? Is the draw open for Novak Djokovic?

The withdrawal of Jannik Sinner due to retirement in the third round of the Shanghai Masters leaves the possibilities wide open to see a new Masters 1000 champion this year. With the absence of World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and the retirement of World No. 2 Jannik Sinner, Shanghai looks like a golden opportunity for the rest of the stars remaining in the draw, with only four Top-10 players still in contention as the Round of 32 continues.

Alcaraz's last-minute withdrawal freed up a spot in the upper half of the draw; he was replaced by Corentin Moutet (33rd seed, eliminated in the first round against Learner Tien). While the path seemed clear for Sinner, who was leading the lower half of the draw, his elimination against Tallon Griekspoor clears the path and sets the stage for surprises.

In fact, none of the players who have won Masters 1000 titles this season remain in the competition: Alcaraz and Jack Draper did not even travel to Shanghai, while Jakub Mensik and Ben Shelton were eliminated in the first round. World No. 4 Taylor Fritz was another early departure, eliminated in the second round by Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perriccard.

The Italian was the second seed in the tournament, which lacked its top seed due to a last-minute withdrawal. Sinner was positioned to contend for the title while avoiding a potential clash with Alcaraz, who has defeated him in five of the six finals they have played this season.

However, cramps forced Sinner to retire from the match against Tallon Griekspoor (27th seed) when the Dutchman was leading 6−7,7−5,3−2. Taylor Fritz, who was in the same quarter, was ultimately eliminated by Mpetshi Perriccard (32nd seed). However, the favorite to take Sinner's place in the bottom half is 10th seed Holger Rune, who could reach the semifinals without facing any Top-25 player.

Another major beneficiary is Novak Djokovic (4th seed), who is playing his first ATP-level tournament since the Geneva Open (ATP 250). The 24-time Grand Slam champion has had a limited schedule, and his last three tournaments were precisely the Slams: French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open—where he fell in three consecutive semifinals.

The Serb will face Jaume Munar in his next challenge, and if he advances, he could have a potential match against Gabriel Diallo (31st seed) or the Belgian Zizou Bergs. One of them will be a semifinalist and would potentially face Rune (the favorite by ranking) for a spot in the final.

Alcaraz's prior absence—which was announced at the last minute after the draw was set—created space in the upper half, though it still holds several contenders. World No. 3 Alexander Zverev has a tough road ahead, with a chance of meeting Denis Shapovalov or Jiri Lehecka in the Round of 16 and a potential match against Lorenzo Musetti (8th seed) or Felix Auger-Aliassime (12th seed) in the quarterfinals.

Whoever advances from that section of the draw will look to secure a place in the final against one of the favorites in the top quarter: Alex de Minaur (7th seed), Daniil Medvedev (16th seed), and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (18th seed) emerge as the strong favorites in the upper zone.

This is probably the best opportunity for Djokovic to lift a Masters 1000 title for the first time since the 2024 Paris Masters. Since then, in eight subsequent participations, he reached two finals and failed to pass the third round five times. "Nole" will have some significant challenges along the way, with Zverev, De Minaur, and Musetti being the big names to consider. Rune (11th) and Auger-Aliassime (13th) also factor into the equation, as they too could capitalize on the voids in the draw to contend for one of the most important titles of the season.