Who is favourite to reach Canadian Open Men's Final: Tennis Abstract ELO system picks out two overwhelming names

Monday, 07 August 2023 at 20:00

The Tennis Abstract ELO system has published the main favorites to reach the final of the Canadian Open, with Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev as the top contenders.

Following the conclusion of the grass court season with Alcaraz's Wimbledon victory, the North American hard court swing will have its first Masters 1000 event this week in the Canadian Open to be held in Toronto.

Novak Djokovic will be absent from the tournament due to fatigue after his defeat at the All England Club. Other notable absences include world No. 11 Karen Khachanov, world No. 22 Denis Shapovalov, and world No. 23 Jan Lennard Struff.

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With the main draw set, the top half is led by the first seed, Carlos Alcaraz, who is the clear favorite according to the system, with a 45.8% chance of reaching the final. He is followed by the 7th seed, Jannik Sinner, with a 19.1% chance. Behind them are Holger Rune with 11.1% (5th seed) and Stefanos Tsitsipas with 9.6% (third seed).

In the bottom half, the top favorite is Russian player Daniil Medvedev (second seed) with a 43.3% chance, followed by his compatriot Andrey Rublev (sixth seed) with a 17.7% chance. Taylor Fritz (8th seed) is next with a 12.3% chance, while Casper Ruud has only a 5% chance.

The ATP Masters 1000 Canadian Open kicks off with first-round matches on Monday, August 7, and Tuesday, August 8. With the matchups set, the top 8 seeds will debut in the second round, awaiting their opponents.

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Among the major challenges that the favorites could face in their first matches are the possibility of world No. 27 Nicolas Jarry facing Fritz, or a duel between former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner.

Among the top eight favorites, only Medvedev managed to lift the trophy in 2021, defeating Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-3 in the final. Additionally, he reached the final in 2019, as did Tsitsipas, who lost in the final to the Spanish player Rafael Nadal, a five-time champion.

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Favourites to reach the final in Toronto according to Tennis Abstract ELO System --- Top half 🇪🇸 Alcaraz 45.8% 🇮🇹 Sinner 19.1% 🇩🇰 Rune 11.1% 🇬🇷 Tsitsipas 9.6% --- Bottom half 🇷🇺 Medvedev 43.3% 🇷🇺 Rublev 17.7% 🇺🇸 Fritz 12.3% 🇳🇴 Ruud 5%

9:40 AM · Aug 7, 2023

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Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.

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