COLUMN: The case for Elena Rybakina at Indian Wells

Indian Wells starts next week, and if you’re looking for the player whose game is running hottest right now, it’s Elena Rybakina.

Not just playing well. Not just surviving draws. Carrying form. There’s a difference.

A lot of players arrive at big tournaments hoping to find something. Timing. Confidence. A groove on serve. A clean strike off the backhand. They’re searching.

Rybakina doesn’t look like she’s searching. She looks like she already found it. When a player is chasing form, you see adjustments mid-match. You see tentative second serves. You see stretches of safe rallying while they try to “feel” their way into rhythm.

When a player is carrying form, the decisions are automatic. Rybakina right now is decisive. The first serve is struck with full commitment. The backhand down the line isn’t a bailout shot, it’s an assertion. She steps inside the baseline because she expects to win the exchange.

That mindset travels well to Indian Wells.

Indian Wells is not just another hard-court event. The surface is slower, the bounce is high, and the air is dry. Power alone is not enough. You need repeatable power. Controlled aggression. The ability to sustain pressure over longer rallies without forcing.

This is where carrying form becomes decisive. If you’re confident in your timing, the high bounce becomes an opportunity, not a nuisance. If you trust your depth, you can flatten the ball through the court without overhitting. If your serve is landing cleanly, you hold comfortably and apply scoreboard pressure. Rybakina’s game right now feels built for that equation.

Aryna Sabalenka can overwhelm anyone in the world when her serve and forehand synchronize. Jessica Pegula is playing disciplined, intelligent tennis and rarely beats herself. Iga Swiatek’s movement and defensive transitions make her dangerous at any major event. Amanda Anisimova has the kind of shotmaking that can derail even the most established contender.

But here’s the difference: they are playing well. Rybakina looks settled. There is a calm to her power right now. Sabalenka’s power can surge and dip. Pegula’s game thrives on structure. Swiatek’s game builds gradually. Rybakina’s feels immediate and repeatable.

If this tournament comes down to a collision of heavy hitters, the comparison will be obvious. Sabalenka’s explosiveness versus Rybakina’s precision power.

At the moment, Rybakina’s margin looks cleaner. Her swings are compact. Her contact point is earlier. She is not trying to hit through opponents. She is simply doing it.

That subtle distinction is everything at Indian Wells, where patience and timing are constantly tested.

Carrying form also changes how a player handles pressure moments. Break point down. Tight tiebreak. A long deuce game after missing a couple of first serves.

A player chasing rhythm might retreat slightly. Add spin. Buy time. A player carrying form goes bigger. Rybakina right now looks like she trusts her game under stress. There’s no visible hesitation between points. No overprocessing. Just execution.

Pegula could make a deep run. Swiatek could grind her way into the later rounds. Sabalenka could blitz the field if everything clicks.

But if we are identifying the player whose game is most synchronized with the present moment, it’s Rybakina. She’s not trying to peak at Indian Wells. She’s arriving already peaking. And in a tournament that rewards conviction as much as power, that may be the most important edge of all.