ANALYSIS: A year since Coco Gauff's US Open breakout but has she improved or regressed?

It's been about a year since Coco Gauff had her major breakout, so let's see what has happened since then and how the American stacks up compared to herself a year ago before it happened.

The 2023 season was a rollercoaster for Coco Gauff. It began with a high, as she won the Auckland Open, but was followed by a low, with a less successful showing at the Australian Open. The contrast in performances showed correctly how the rest of the season would end up being as well.

Things were quite lacklustre after that, as she really struggled to make any deep runs. There were some quarter-finals here and there, but there weren't any finals, and she grew increasingly frustrated. It wasn't so much that she wasn't able to make finals; it was more that she wasn't progressing.

When we look at Coco Gauff's career, she became a pretty good player very early on. She would slowly improve, but there was never that major burst that made you pause. She had that French Open final, but outside of that, there wasn't much that made you go, wow. That, combined with a general lack of improvement in her play, caused some concern.

The serve improved slowly but hasn't become a major weapon yet. The forehand remained a huge problem which she was supposed to fix but still didn't, so when the struggles came last year, people started to wonder whether things would ever click for Gauff. Concerns were a bit premature because Gauff was still one of the best players in the world, but what happens with some of the best players in the world? The expectations are just very high.

The type of results she had would be a great year for 99 % of the players on Tour. However, if you're one of the most talented players we have, expectations are far greater. The most upsetting moment of her career came at last year's Wimbledon when she faced compatriot Sofia Kenin in the first round. Kenin had been struggling with her tennis as well, and many expected Gauff to really cruise through that match.

To the surprise of many, the American was beaten in three sets, demonstrating a lot of frustration and very poor body language. She would then go on to describe that moment as the lowest point in her career. There were a lot of question marks surrounding her at the time. She was playing pretty poorly and looking miserable on the court.

She was also trying to work things out with a new coaching team that clearly had an idea of how she was supposed to play (attacking); however, that style didn't come that naturally to Gauff. To play attacking tennis, you need a strong baseline game, which Gauff lacked from the forehand side. The backhand was pretty stable, but the forehand was all over the place.

And then it happened. Her breakout. Her signature run. The 2023 US Open series of events proved a major breakout for Gauff. What's amazing about what happened is that nobody really saw it coming. People assumed that she was going to disappoint, but she didn't. The catalyst for this turnaround was the Washington event, a significant milestone in Gauff's career.

She arrived there pretty down about her tennis but was able to win a couple of matches and find herself in the final. She would beat Maria Sakkari in the final, and it would kind of snowball from there. The next event was the Canadian Open, where doubles partner Jessica Pegula beat her, but she'd quickly return to winning ways at the Cincinnati WTA 1000 event.

It was there that she would win her first 1000 event by beating Karolina Muchova in the final. The American was playing amazing tennis and enjoyed heavy crowd support. The win over Iga Swiatek in the semi-final proved a hugely emotional one, a moment that resonated with fans and certainly catapulted her confidence to new heights.

The most important run of her career would happen at the US Open, though, where she continued to play great tennis. She also got a bit lucky with the draw by not having the toughest list of opponents until the final. In the final, Gauff faced an experienced Sabalenka, who would eventually crumble under the tremendous pressure from both Gauff and the crowd.

The American was very nervous in that match but kind of relaxed as the match went on and as Sabalenka started to doubt herself. And there we had it - Coco Gauff a Grand Slam champion. Two months after enduring the 'lowest point' of her career, Coco Gauff was lifting the biggest trophy of her career. She won 16 matches during that US Open series, which was 30 % of her wins that season. That's how significant that run was, and ultimately, it was proof that she does belong to the top of tennis, a testament to the power of perseverance and determination.

Winning that maiden Grand Slam is like a stamp of approval that you've ascended to the next level, and many were gushing over Gauff after that one. She wouldn't find the same level in Beijing and at the WTA Finals, but overall, the 2023 season went from one of the worst ones in her career to her best, and it was largely thanks to that US Open series run.

It's been over a year since she won the Washington event last year, so where does Gauff stand right now? Let's compare and see whether she was able to follow up those great performances this year and whether she's a better player overall.

She started the year by winning the Auckland Open again and making the Australian Open semi-final. So far, so good. The next couple of events didn't see her make a final, but she was playing pretty solid tennis quite consistently as well. If we compare her performances this year to those last year, then there is far more consistency this year.

In recent weeks, though, she has struggled a bit. The grass season wasn't really a great time for her. The Wimbledon run ended at the hands of Emma Navarro, a good player but certainly not one you expect to give Gauff many problems. That match exposed some old demons which we need to address. Navarro said after the match that she was targetting Gauff's forehand, and when you have a player openly admit that, then it's a problem.

The forehand was a huge problem last year because it was just not reliable enough. It can be good enough and stable, such as during the US Open run, but overall, it's just not a reliable weapon for the American in an era of tennis where you need it to be. Her forehand didn't hold in that match against Navarro, as she sprayed errors all over the court and ultimately lost.

The same thing happened at the Olympics against Donna Vekic, which was another hugely disappointing loss. Vekic is an aggressive baseliner who pressures Gauff and the American can't deal with them. It was largely the forehand who let her down again. It's just not stable enough because she never really addressed it. There were loud calls for her to fix it last year, but the US Open win kind of masked things as fine when clearly they aren't.

These past weeks are proving it's not fine. The Canadian Open loss to Diana Shnaider showed it as well. Whenever she faces a solid baseline hitter such as Vekic, Swiatek, Shnaider, or Sabalenka, the American is in huge trouble because she doesn't have the quality baseline game she needs to counter that. Things won't improve in the future because more and more players are playing that aggressive baseline style, so unless she addresses it, she is likely to struggle against any up-and-coming player.

So, to summarise, Gauff has played on a very similar level to last year. She's been a bit more consistent in the first part of the year but has been struggling lately. It mostly comes down to her not addressing some of the things that she needed to. The serve has been shaky lately as well, and it's a very bad time to struggle with that, but the forehand and serve have been shots she was called upon to address for a very long time.

Hopefully, she does because it's the key to unlocking her game fully. She's mature enough as a player and is ready to dominate but lacks the tools to do so at the moment. Until she doesn't address that, she won't really take the next step to become a consistent threat at Grand Slams. Right now, she's not because she hasn't improved much as a player since last year. She just caught fire for the first time last year, but there is no fire in sight for her this year. Winning the US Open again looks very unlikely as things stand now.