Analysis: Luck not on the side of Mirra Andreeva after agonisingly pipped to WTA Finals qualification

This year's WTA Finals race has been one of the closest ever, with it going right down to the wire in a dramatic last few weeks on the Asian swing. With Mirra Andreeva once sitting in a favourable position to make her debut in Riyadh, Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina have stolen a march on the Russian to pip her at the post by excruciating margins.

After the culmination of the US Open, Andreeva was perched in seventh with 4,189 points. Her previous success early on in 2025 had earned her a decent-sized gap over Rybakina in eighth with 3,751 and Paolini in ninth with 3,526. However, a sharp dip in form in Asia saw the 18-year-old win just two matches in three tournaments saw her tally rise a measly 130 points to 4,319. With visa restrictions preventing her from travelling to Tokyo to compete in the Pan Pacific Open, she could only sit and watch from a distance.

As this occurred, both Rybakina and Paolini both went deep into tournaments. Paolini made it to the quarter-finals in the China Open and semi-finals in the Wuhan Open and Ningbo Open. In Ningbo, she was defeated by Rybakina who would later clinch the title. This left qualification in the Kazakhstani's hand, with Paolini already booking her ticket. A semi-final in Tokyo would get the job done, and that's exactly what she has achieved, defeating Canadian star's Leylah Fernandez and Victoria Mboko to advance to her third consecutive Tour Finals. For Andreeva, she will have to try again next year.

In a post on Reddit, it confirmed that this is the first time since 2012 where a player has accumulated over 4,000 points and still finished outside of the top eight. This unfortunate accolade was awarded to Aussie Samantha Stosur, who finished the year with 4,135 ranking points collected in the race to Istanbul. Despite this impressive tally, she still found herself miles behind Petra Kvitova in eighth, who finished with 5,085. For context, that tally would have placed her sixth in this year's race less than 100 points behind Jessica Pegula in fifth. Fortunately for Stosur, she did play a couple matches in the Finals after Kvitova withdrew from the event. This could bring some hope to Andreeva, who may be able to sneak her way in after all.

It was not just her high points tally that would be frustrating for Andreeva, but the miniscule gap currently between her and eighth. With Andreeva stranded on 4,319, Paolini is perched on top with 4,325 points, with just six points between the pair. It is only the second time that eighth and ninth have been split by less than 10 points, which is truly heartbreaking news for Andreeva.

Tighter margins are starting to crop up in tennis these days, especially on the WTA Tour. With more tournaments and unpredictable circumstances, players can one day find themselves in a relatively pleasant position in the rankings, just to get bypassed after a few bad results. This exact thing happened to Andreeva, who came out of the blocks in 2025 like a rocket, winning her maiden WTA 1000 events in Dubai and Indian Wells. Even a couple of Grand Slam quarter-final appearances were not enough for the teenage sensation to qualify through the singles route. She will still appear in Riyadh but paired with fellow Russian Diana Shnaider as they target glory in the doubles event. The pair tasted success in the Miami Open enroute to securing qualification, finishing fifth in the final standings with over 1000-point buffer to ninth.