Aryna Sabalenka aims to keep rivals at bay in updated WTA Race ahead of Indian Wells

Aryna Sabalenka remains the leader in the WTA Race but will face a tough challenge to maintain it with the start of Indian Wells. The Belarusian will have a mountain to climb with the Sunshine Double, where she will have two WTA 1000 events in March, adding Miami Open after the conclusion of IW.

The 2-times Australian Open champion leads largely due to the title in Melbourne, which earned her 2,000 points, combined with the runner-up finish at the WTA 500 Brisbane Open, bringing her total to 2,335 points so far. Her early exit in the first round of the Dubai Open against Donna Vekic provided an opportunity for her rivals to close the gap in the Race.

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Principal threats to Sabalenka's dominance

The Middle East swing saw Elena Rybakina clinching the title at the Abu Dhabi Open, reaching the final at the Qatar Open, and securing a spot in the quarterfinals at Dubai. Her earlier triumph in Brisbane at the beginning of the year, where she defeated Sabalenka 6-0, 6-3 in the final, accounts for the bulk of her points, placing her at 2,043, despite her second-round exit at the Aussie Open.

Iga Swiatek, who exited in the fourth round of the AO, emerged as the top points earner in the Middle East with a title win at the Doha Open and a semifinal appearance in Dubai. The Polish player stands out as the only tennis player to capture the same WTA title three times since 2015 (and also the only one to achieve this feat three times at the same Grand Slam in the same period).

Slightly further behind are Australian Open finalist Qinwen Zheng with 1,710 points, followed by Jelena Ostapenko with 1,478 points, courtesy of two titles in Adelaide and Linz.

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Sabalenka among the favorites at Indian Wells

Not only her title defense in Melbourne cements Sabalenka as one of the primary contenders to beat. The Belarusian has already showcased her prowess in the California desert, reaching the final in 2023. However, on that occasion, it was Elena Rybakina (7-6, 6-4) who emerged victorious, securing her first WTA 1000 title.

As the second seed, Sabalenka is guaranteed to avoid facing the other major favourite, Iga Swiatek, until a potential final. Nevertheless, the recent loss to Donna Vekic raised concerns about Sabalenka's form, as her opponent staged a comeback from a set down with a nine-game winning run to seal the match 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-0 in Vekic's favor.

WTA Race Update