Paula Badosa set to drop outside Top 100 ahead of Indian Wells

Former world No. 2 Paula Badosa is set to fall outside the Top 100 in the WTA rankings as of Monday, 2 March, marking another difficult chapter in a career repeatedly disrupted by injuries. The 28-year-old Spaniard, once one of the most consistent performers on tour, has withdrawn from this week’s Mérida Open and is now in a race against time to be fit for Indian Wells.

Badosa currently sits at No. 85 in the world, but with ranking points dropping from last season and no opportunity to defend them in Mexico, she will officially exit the Top 100 in the upcoming update. The development underscores the instability that has defined much of her last few seasons.

Her latest setback came in Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, where she retired in the second round against Elina Svitolina. The Spaniard was 4-1 up but physical discomfort began, and she ended up retiring at the end of the first set after losing five games in a row (4-6). The match added to a growing list of physical interruptions, primarily related to persistent back issues that have limited both her tournament schedule and training continuity over the past 18 months.

The 2021 Indian Wells champion lost just over 100 ranking points and will drop close to 20 positions to No. 106 — her lowest ranking since 2024. The Spaniard hopes to be fit to compete in Tennis Paradise starting next week, a tournament whose conditions suit her game well, but she needs to be physically sound if she wants to go deep and add the sufficient points required to return to the Top 100.

This is not the first time Badosa has faced such a drop. In April 2024, she fell outside the Top 100 for the first time amid a prolonged injury layoff. Yet she managed an impressive resurgence, gradually climbing back into the Top 10 through consistent results at WTA 500 and 1000 level. That rebound highlighted both her resilience and the high ceiling that once made her a fixture among the elite.

From occupying as low as No. 140 around May 2024, Badosa managed to climb to No. 12 by the end of the year — and her strong campaign at the start of 2025 at the Australian Open, where she reached her first Grand Slam semi-final, allowed her to re-enter the Top 10. At her peak, Badosa reached a career-high ranking of world No. 2 and established herself as a genuine contender at the sport’s biggest events.

Her breakthrough came in 2021, when she captured the Indian Wells title — one of the most prestigious trophies outside the Grand Slams — defeating Victoria Azarenka in the final. That season, she also qualified for the WTA Finals and finished inside the year-end Top 10.

However, sustained physical problems have since stalled that trajectory. In 2025, her campaign has lacked rhythm. Early exits and retirements have prevented her from building momentum, and her win-loss record reflects that inconsistency. The inability to string together consecutive deep runs has translated directly into ranking erosion.

Now, as the tour prepares to shift to the Sunshine Double, Badosa finds herself at a crossroads. Indian Wells carries symbolic weight: it is the site of her biggest title and a tournament where she has historically thrived on the slower hard courts. Whether she will be physically ready remains uncertain.

For Badosa, the challenge is no longer just about ranking points. It is about regaining durability and competitive continuity. Dropping outside the Top 100 is a statistical marker, but the broader question is whether she can once again stabilise her body — and with it, her place among the game’s leading names.