Preview US Open 2024 Women's Semi-Final: Jessica Pegula achieves destiny, faces standout story Karolina Muchova

A pretty fascinating matchup will happen in the US Open semi-final when Jessica Pegula takes on Karolina Muchova, so let’s break it down.

In our preview we look ahead to the match with the various storylines and the previous matches between the pair in their career thus far.

Prolific Pegula achieves destiny

Pegula has been playing superbly impressive tennis in recent weeks, but there are some interesting trends to observe with that. Her peak tennis-wise already happened, and she’s kind of been fading off lately, even though she keeps winning. The American had a crazy impressive run at the Canadian Open, winning it with no problems. She then followed that up with an impressive run in Cincinnati, getting beaten only by champion Aryna Sabalenka.

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While her level has remained pretty high since then, it hasn’t really been as impressive at the US Open. She’s shown some vulnerability here, especially in her two most recent matches. The match against Swiatek looks impressive on the result alone because she beat her, but it was a dreadful match by the Polish player. It’s arguably the worst match she’s played in a long time, and she played a horror one at the Olympics.

It’s actually the second time that Swiatek has failed spectacularly in a big match in recent weeks, which might signal a troubling trend for her. Overall, it wasn’t like Pegula outshined her opponent easily, but she did enough to make Swiatek nervous. The American is hitting the ball as cleanly as ever. That part is true, and it’s likely to continue against Muchova as well. She’s also looking very calm, which is impressive for her. She hasn’t been the calmest player in the world, but at this year’s US Open, she seems almost in a zen mode, where she’s not really troubled by anything that happens.

Even if she gets broken, she doesn’t go on these error sprees like she did in the past, so overall she’s been very solid. Very, very solid.

Muchova's stomach issues a deciding factor

The same can be said for Karolina Muchova, though. The list of players she bested along her run to the semi-final has been impressive, and what’s even more impressive is the ease with which she’s done it. She hasn’t really been troubled in any of them, but there are some question marks around her overall state heading into this match. The main problem for Muchova won’t be her tennis but her health. She dealt with some health issues in her most recent match, though it didn’t seem like an injury but more so stomach problems.

That can be managed, even though it can be a huge nuisance during a tennis match. Her body seems to be holding up, though, which is a very good sign. It’s the biggest thing that held her back in years prior because her tennis has been smashing every time she was able to play some consistent tennis. This year’s level at the US Open has been hugely impressive as well. She’s served incredibly well, by far the best of any player in the draw, and that includes Sabalenka.

Karolina Muchova has been the standout story of this past fortnight.

She’s also played really well from the baseline, quite stable, attacking when she needs to and defending when she needs to. She’s not afraid to come forward and has a pretty good drop shot in her arsenal, so she has all the tools to trouble any player, and that includes Pegula. If you can absorb the power of Pegula well and force her to move around a bit, then you have a pretty good chance of winning this match. Pegula is not an impossible riddle to solve for Muchova, especially not with how she’s played recently.

The thing that makes you pause a little bit is the most recent match they played at the Cincinnati Masters, which was a complicated affair for Pegula, but she was still able to win it. It was a 3-set match, but the final set was a 6-2 beatdown by Pegula as Muchova experienced some physical issues. That’s the main problem for her here. Will her body hold up? Because we’ve seen plenty of evidence in the past that it didn’t. If it doesn’t, she has no chance of winning the match. The level in New York has been better than the one in Cincinnati, so this should be a closer match by default, but it won’t be easy for Muchova.

Pegula is favoured not only because she’s been so solid lately, but also because she’s playing at home. The crowd will be biased in this one, and it will add an extra level of pressure on Muchova. She’s generally thrived in conditions like these, but Pegula should draw some inspiration from it.

Jessica Pegula will be favoured over this distance.

The crucial thing for Muchova will be the serve. That will make or break her, because that’s what happened for Swiatek. She served very poorly, giving Pegula many slower and shorter balls, which she attacked. By the time Swiatek found any kind of serve, Pegula was in rhythm, and that was basically game over. If Muchova can keep the rallies short and not allow Pegula to get a good rhythm, she’ll be in a decent spot. Her serve has been the one thing that she could fall back on in all of her matches, so this is likely to happen.

If it does happen, Muchova’s chances will grow exponentially because it is her major weapon for dealing with someone like Pegula. In a hitting contest between the two, Pegula is likely to win because that’s just more her game. Certainly more than it’s true for Muchova, who needs to mix it up to win the match.

Overall, though, it’s a hugely important match for both. Experience isn’t lacking on either side, but Pegula never went this far at a major compared to Muchova, who stood in the final and was a few games away from winning it. It should be good as both are good enough to win, and there aren’t any clear indications as to who actually will.

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