PREVIEW WTA China Open Final: Amanda Anisimova seeks second WTA 1000 title against giant-slayer Linda Noskova

This Sunday, October 4th, the final of the WTA 1000 China Open in Beijing will be played, featuring American Amanda Anisimova as the slight favorite against the 20-year-old Czech star Linda Noskova, who is the surprise contender for the title. The match will be played at 7:00 PM local time for the season's penultimate WTA 1000 trophy.

Three Americans reached the semifinals in Beijing, but only one survived. In the first match of the day, World No. 6 Jessica Pegula fell in a tight contest against Noskova—squandering three match points on her serve before being defeated by the Czech 6-3, 1-6, 7-6 [8-6].

Later, in the all-American showdown, Anisimova delivered a brilliant performance to dispatch defending champion Coco Gauff (2nd seed) in less than an hour. Anisimova—runner-up in the last two Grand Slams (Wimbledon and the US Open)—secured the 6-1, 6-2 victory against an erratic Gauff, guaranteeing her 5th final of the season.

This will be the third meeting between Anisimova and Noskova, with their last match three months ago at Wimbledon, where the American won in three sets in the Round of 16, a key step on her path to her first major final. The 24-year-old enters as the favorite against the less-experienced Noskova, though the Czech has already delivered several surprises this week.

It is undoubtedly a surprise to see Noskova at this stage of the tournament, despite her explosive growth over the past couple of years. Noskova started the tournament ranked only World No. 27, but she has already secured her entry into the Top 20 after the tournament. This week, the Czech secured two victories over Top 10 players, bringing her total to 11 career Top 10 wins at just 20 years old.

The Czech has been in impeccable form this week, in what is her first tournament since the US Open. On her way to the final, she defeated locals Xinyu Wang (6-2, 6-4) and 7th seed Zheng Qinwen (6-4, 3-6, 3-0, ret.), followed by straight-set victories over Anastasia Potapova (6-2, 6-4) and Sonay Kartal (6-3, 6-4). In the semifinals—her first WTA 1000 semifinal—she beat the experienced Pegula in an epic third-set tie-break, a match where Pegula served for the match at 6-5 in the third set and wasted three match points.

Serve will be key for the Czech, who has alternated between a good number of aces and double faults in her recent matches. In her last three contests, she has hit 20 aces and 16 double faults, yet she has managed to remain effective from the service line. Noskova has only one previous title (WTA 500 Monterrey Open) and has lost three finals in her career. This will be her first opportunity to play for a WTA 1000 title and a chance to enter the World No. 13 if she wins the championship (and No. 11 in the Race).

Anisimova has spent the entire year showing she deserves her place among the best, tallying 8 wins against Top 10 players so far, two of those coming this week. The World No. 4 is contesting her 5th final of the season, where she has won only the Qatar Open title—her first WTA 1000 title—and then fell in the finals of the Queen’s Club Championships, Wimbledon, and the US Open.

The American arrived for her first tournament after her US Open final loss to Sabalenka and has shown she is comfortable entering a position as a title favorite. The 24-year-old star showcased her favoritism by easily defeating Katie Boulter (6-1, 6-x) and local player Shuai Zhang (7-6 [13-11], 6-0). Her following challenges were difficult, as she came back from a set down to beat 13th seed Karolina Muchova (1-6, 6-2, 6-4) and 6th seed Jasmine Paolini (6-7 [4-7], 6-3, 6-4).

In the semifinals, Anisimova crushed defending champion Gauff, dominating with an 84% win rate on her first serve and conceding just three games in under an hour (6-1, 6-2). The World No. 4 also secured her spot in the WTA Finals this week, in addition to accumulating 11 wins in her last 12 appearances. Anisimova is chasing her 45th victory of the season and starts as the favorite in an interesting final to cap off the season’s penultimate WTA 1000 event.