After eight of the best women on the WTA Tour travelled to Riyadh to compete in the
WTA Finals, only two remain.
Aryna Sabalenka and
Elena Rybakina have stood out against their fellow competitors in the highly prestigious event, with a maiden title on offer for either of them with one more win needed, with the final commencing on Saturday, 8th November.
Sabalenka and Rybakina both topped their respected groups with a perfect record, and have both managed to traverse through tricky semi-final matchups. Now, just each other stand in between them and glory in the Saudi Arabian capital.
Superior Sabalenka in scintillating form
The world number one was the first name on the list for the
WTA Finals after another remarkably consistent year, with a multitude of major and WTA 1000 finals reached. There has been just one problem: getting over the line. She was defeated at the final stage in consecutive Grand Slams - Australian Open and Roland Garros, along with a a three-set defeat in Indian Wells.
Losing today is not an option for Sabalenka, who has surprisingly never lofted the WTA Finals trophy high above her head before. After failing to make it out of the Round Robin stage on debut in 2021, she was pipped in the final by Caroline Garcia the culminating year. Two semi-final appearances have come and gone, with both occasions the Belarusian losing to the eventual winner - Iga Swiatek in 2023 and Coco Gauff in 2025.
While she had not played much tennis going into the final event of 2025, she was looking in tip-top form. After the US Open title, the only tournament she competed in on the Asian swing was the Wuhan Open, where she was defeated by Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals, ending her 100% record in the tournament.
She would later extract her revenge on the American, but first was a convincing 6-3, 6-1 win over Jasmine Paolini, kicking her group phase off to a winning start. Then came the rematch against Pegula. A win would edge her to the edge of qualification. She completed this, but in three sets, winning 6-2, 4-6, 6-3. This made her slightly vulnerable in the final round of ties. If she conquered defending champion Gauff, then she was through. A defeat could mean the end of her campaign. Fortunately for the four-time Grand Slam champion, she completed a crucial turn-around in the first set after finding herself 5-3 down to go onto triumph 7-6(5), 6-2.
This confirmed top spot, and a semi-final clash against Amanda Anisimova in a rematch of the final at Flushing Meadows and the semi-final at Wimbledon. Like in New York, it would be Sabalenka's night. She overcame the American 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 to confirm her spot in the final.
Rampant Rybakina cruises through to final
At the start of the Asian swing, while Sabalenka's involvement in the tournament was certain, there was no confirmation on Rybakina, with the Kazakhstani looking set to miss out for the first time since 2022. Fortunately, a title at the Ningbo Open followed by a semi-final at the Pan Pacific Open mixed with a bit of luck was enough for her to sneak into the WTA Finals.
From here, she has gone from strength to strength. Her distant struggles are now miles away, with Rybakina now back to her very best form. Her deadly weapon, her serve, has been on song all week in the Middle East. This has seen her blast her way past opponents. Combined with a lethal forehand, and that is a concoction to be wary of.
The warning signs were signalled in her first match when she disposed of a hotly tipped Anisimova 6-3, 6-1. The 2022 Wimbledon champion was absolutely dominant enroute to winning, claiming eight of the last nine games while fending off any challenges faced from her American rival.
Next was the 2023 champion Swiatek, who was mesmerising against Madison Keys. After demolishing the Australian Open champion, many though the same fate would be destined for Rybakina. Despite this, she kept her cool and dropped just one game after going a set down, coming out on top 3-6, 6-1, 6-0. She won nine games on the spin to confirm not just the win but qualification into the semi-finals.
However, she still admitted to wanting to keep up her 100% record and did it against an unexpected opponent. After Keys withdrew, Ekaterina Alexandrova was fielded in. She was also not able to get the better of Rybakina, who won 6-4, 6-4. She was favourite to win the semi-final tie against Pegula but came unstuck early on after finding herself as set down. Fortunately, she recovered in fabulous fashion, defeating the American 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 to reach a maiden WTA Finals final.
Head-to-head
Sabalenka holds a 9-6 win rate against Rybakina, defeating her two out of the three occasions they have locked horns this year. One came as recent as in Wuhan, while the other was a three-set triumph in Berlin, also at the quarter-final stage.
Sandwiched between that was a positive result for Rybakina who halted the world number one in her tracks at the Cincinnati Open in a hugely convincing performance. She also defeated Sabalenka in their previous WTA Finals matchup. While this was a dead rubber, Rybakina still managed to drag back a little pride. In the three finals they have competed, Rybakina has won two of them, with the Sabalenka clinching the big one in Melbourne.
Whoever wins today will clinch the title with a 100%. This is the first scenario since Swiatek in 2023. A new name will also be etched in WTA Finals history, with a lot riding on the final match of the 2025 WTA campaign.