Riyadh Ready: Jasmine Paolini changes schedule, withdraws from Tokyo Open as Mboko gets seeded position

Jasmine Paolini made a change to her schedule after securing her qualification for the WTA Finals and decided to withdraw from this week's Tokyo Open. The Italian was in a close battle with Mirra Andreeva and Elena Rybakina for a spot in Riyadh, but after the results of the past week, she secured her place among the eight best players of the season.

The 29-year-old Italian began last week in 8th place in the Race, with Elena Rybakina hot on her heels for the final qualifying spot for Riyadh. However, Paolini fulfilled her responsibilities at the Ningbo Open—reaching the semi-finals—and accumulated enough points to take 7th place, displacing Mirra Andreeva.

Paolini reached the semi-finals in Ningbo, only to fall to Rybakina. However, Andreeva's early exit from the tournament ultimately changed things in the Race, and Paolini is now assured of her spot in Riyadh.

The Italian two-time Grand Slam runner-up has a total of 4,325 points for the year, putting her 5 points ahead of Andreeva—currently 8th. The 18-year-old star had inconsistent results in the latter part of the year, and her campaign at the Ningbo Open ended early in the first round against Zhu Lin, despite being the first seed.

After a week where Andreeva did not score points, she watched as Paolini surpassed her in the Race and Rybakina significantly closed the gap. The 2022 Wimbledon champion finished as the champion in Ningbo—after defeating Alexandrova in the final—and ended up with 4,305 points in the Race, meaning she is only 15 points behind Andreeva.

Everything will depend on the campaign Rybakina can make in Tokyo to define whether it will be her or Andreeva who occupies the 8th place at the WTA Finals, where players like Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff are already confirmed.

The former World No. 3 needs to reach the semi-finals to score enough points, meaning she is two wins away from securing her spot. Following the draw, Rybakina awaits her debut against the winner between Leylah Fernandez and Maria Sakkari, and in a potential quarter-final, she might face Victoria Mboko (9th).

Paolini's qualification for the Finals was ultimately confirmed because Andreeva has no more tournaments ahead of her. This means that even without the Italian stepping onto the court this week—the last week of competition on the WTA Tour—she can only be surpassed in the Race by Rybakina.

This is why Paolini chose to skip the Tokyo Open and withdrew at the last minute from the tournament, leading to adjustments in the draw. She was entered as the 8th seed and was scheduled to face wildcard Bianca Andreescu—a familiar opponent, whom she faced up to three consecutive times in Grand Slam tournaments in 2024.

Paolini's exit forced changes in the draw. The 9th seed Victoria Mboko had been drawn to face Leylah Fernandez, but after the withdrawal of the 8th seed Paolini, Mboko is the highest-ranked player and took that position, clearing a space in the draw. Thus, Mboko will face her compatriot Bianca Andreescu, while Leylah Fernandez will face the qualifier Maria Sakkari.