The US Open draw has created a huge problem for Aryna Sabalenka — and a familiar threat is waiting

Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 09:39

Aryna Sabalenka walks on court ahead of the US Open final.

The 2026 US Open draw has given Aryna Sabalenka little room for error. The defending champion arrives in New York chasing a third consecutive title, but she is also trying to protect her position at world No. 1, with Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all capable of taking over the top spot.

That makes Sabalenka's route particularly important. The Belarusian has dominated the top of the WTA Rankings for months, but she is defending the full 2,000 points from last year's title. Rybakina, meanwhile, enters with a significantly stronger ranking position because she has fewer points to defend, leaving Sabalenka with almost no margin for an early exit.

Her opening opponent will be Camila Osorio, a former US Open junior champion who has already beaten Sabalenka before. The Colombian's baseline consistency and ability to extend rallies could force the world No. 1 to earn every point, particularly if Sabalenka's first-strike tennis is not firing from the opening game.

The bigger concern is what comes next. A Grand Slam champion is projected to stand between Sabalenka and the second week, while former top players and recent Grand Slam contenders could await deeper in the draw. For a player who has made the US Open one of her most reliable tournaments, this is a route that could test her much earlier than expected.

Sabalenka wants a third straight US Open title

It is difficult to imagine Sabalenka going out particularly early in New York. She has reached at least the third round at every Grand Slam since the 2021 Australian Open, making it 21 consecutive appearances in which she has survived the opening two rounds.

Her record since 2023 is even more impressive. Across 14 Grand Slam appearances, Sabalenka has reached at least the quarter-finals 13 times, with her fourth-round exit at Wimbledon being the only exception. During that stretch she has reached eight Grand Slam finals and won four titles.

The US Open has been particularly kind to her. Sabalenka has reached at least the semi-finals in each of the last five editions, including three consecutive finals and back-to-back championships in 2024 and 2025.

Aryna Sabalenka holds the US Open trophy

Aryna Sabalenka won her 4th Grand Slam title at US Open 2025, after defeating Amanda Anisimova in the final.

Sabalenka's last 5 appearances at the US Open

Year	Result	Last opponent	Outcome
2021	Semifinals	Leylah Fernandez	Lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
2022	Semifinals	Iga Swiatek	Lost 3-6, 6-1, 6-4
2023	Final	Coco Gauff	Lost 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
2024	Champion	Jessica Pegula	Won 7-5, 7-5
2025	Champion	Amanda Anisimova	Won 6-4, 6-2

The US Open draw has given Sabalenka no easy route to another title

The opening round should still be manageable on paper, but Osorio is not the kind of opponent who will simply disappear once Sabalenka establishes control. The second round appears considerably calmer, with Renata Zarazua or a qualifier potentially standing between Sabalenka and the third round.

However, the qualifier spot is one to watch closely. Zheng Qinwen and Bianca Andreescu are among the notable names fighting through qualifying, and either could make Sabalenka's supposedly comfortable second-round path considerably more complicated.

If Sabalenka comes through that test, the first major obstacle could arrive in the third round in the form of Barbora Krejcikova. The Czech is a former Wimbledon and Roland Garros champion and has the variety to disrupt Sabalenka's rhythm. The head-to-head heavily favors the Belarusian at 7-1, but a third-round meeting with a player of Krejcikova's pedigree would be an uncomfortable first-week challenge.

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The fourth round could be even more intriguing. Diana Shnaider is projected to emerge from that section, creating a potential rematch of their Roland Garros quarter-final, where the Russian produced one of the biggest upsets against Sabalenka earlier this season.

If Sabalenka survives that test, the quarter-finals could bring another major challenge. Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova is the projected opponent, although Marta Kostyuk is also in the section and has been one of the most consistent players during the recent Grand Slam stretch. Noskova's ability to take the ball early and protect her serve could make her particularly awkward against Sabalenka's power game.

Aryna Sabalenka clenches her fist after winning a point at the Canadian Open in Toronto.

Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus celebrates after a point during the Women’s Singles round of 64 match against Moyuka Uchijima of Japan on day 4 of the WTA Masters 1000 National Bank Open

The potential semi-final is where the ranking battle could become impossible to ignore. Jessica Pegula is projected to come through the opposite section, setting up another meeting between two players who have produced several close encounters. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 9-4.

And should she reach the final, the biggest possible storyline awaits: Elena Rybakina. The Kazakh is Sabalenka's main rival for the world No. 1 ranking and could become the player who finally ends her reign at the top.

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For Sabalenka, therefore, this is about much more than defending another US Open title. She has to navigate a potentially dangerous first week, survive a series of high-level opponents and remain standing long enough to protect both her crown and her place at the top of women's tennis.

Sabalenka’s potential path to the final

Round	Potential opponent
R1	Camila Osorio
R2	Renata Zarazua
R3	Barbora Krejcikova [27]
R4	Diana Shnaider [15] / Maja Chwalińska [20]
QF	Linda Noskova [6] / Marta Kostyuk [11]
SF	Jessica Pegula [3] / Karolina Muchova [7]
Final	Elena Rybakina [2] / Coco Gauff [3] / Iga Swiatek [8]

Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.

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