The five players who can stop Carlos Alcaraz from winning another US Open title

Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 02:48

Carlos Alcaraz returns to the US Open as the defending champion, but this time the biggest question surrounding his title defence is not his ceiling. It is how quickly he can reach it. The Spaniard has been out of competitive singles action for almost five months because of a wrist injury, leaving him with almost no match rhythm heading into his return in New York.

That makes this US Open particularly interesting for Alcaraz. He remains one of the tournament favourites and is still capable of producing a level few players can match, but his route is filled with opponents who bring either enormous experience or serious momentum. With Jannik Sinner absent, the draw has opened up — and several players will believe this is their chance to make the biggest breakthrough of their careers.

Some of the threats are familiar. Novak Djokovic remains one of the greatest Grand Slam obstacles Alcaraz could face, while Alexander Zverev arrives as the French Open champion and top seed. Others represent a different kind of danger: Daniil Medvedev's unique hard-court game can disrupt Alcaraz's rhythm, while Ben Shelton and Arthur Fils belong to a younger generation that has been steadily moving closer to the top.

The question, then, is not simply who can beat Alcaraz. It is who has the specific weapons to exploit a defending champion who may need several rounds before his competitive instincts are fully back.

Novak Djokovic: The ultimate test of Alcaraz's rhythm

Djokovic is the obvious name, but his threat goes beyond his ranking or Grand Slam record. The Serbian is arguably the perfect opponent to test a player returning from a long layoff because he can turn a match into a physical and mental endurance contest.

Djokovic's ability to absorb Alcaraz's power, redirect pace and extend rallies could force the Spaniard to create points rather than allowing him to play on instinct. That becomes particularly relevant after such a long absence.

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The two could meet in a potential semifinal, where the physical factor could become important for both players. Djokovic, however, is an expert at managing emotions and momentum during a match, and in a potential four-hour battle, he would be alert to any dip from Alcaraz — something the Spaniard could be particularly exposed to given his lack of competitive rhythm before Flushing Meadows.

The potential semifinal is also loaded with history. Alcaraz and Djokovic are level at 5-5 in their career head-to-head, while their only meeting in 2026 came in the Australian Open final, where Alcaraz came back to win. Djokovic is also chasing a record 25th Grand Slam title, making him an especially dangerous opponent if he reaches the second week.

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic with their 2026 Australian Open trophies.

Daniil Medvedev: The rhythm killer

Medvedev presents a completely different tactical problem. The Russian does not need to match Alcaraz's explosiveness. His game is designed to make opponents uncomfortable, particularly on hard courts. By standing deep behind the baseline, absorbing pace and extending exchanges, Medvedev can deny Alcaraz the short, aggressive patterns that allow him to take control with his forehand.

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That could be particularly effective against a player still looking for timing. Alcaraz's best tennis often comes when he can combine heavy baseline shots with sudden changes of direction, drop shots and forward movement. Medvedev's objective would be to prevent that variety from becoming decisive by making almost every rally start again from neutral.

The longer the Spaniard has to generate his own pace and find solutions, the more valuable Medvedev's consistency becomes. After five months without a competitive singles match, that could turn into a major problem. However, the Russian is also far from his best level and needs to find confidence through several wins if he is to seriously challenge the defending champion.

Alexander Zverev: The serve-first blueprint

Zverev may offer one of the clearest tactical blueprints against Alcaraz.

The German can put enormous pressure on opponents before rallies even develop. His first serve gives him cheap points, while his forehand allows him to dictate immediately after the delivery. That combination can prevent Alcaraz from establishing the defensive-to-offensive transitions that are central to his game.

There could also be an interesting question surrounding Alcaraz's forehand. We could speculate that the Spaniard may be slightly less explosive with that shot following his injury, while his backhand could become the stroke Zverev looks to target. The German has arguably one of the two or three best backhands on the Tour and could use that side of the court to create his biggest advantages, particularly if both players remain solid on serve and the match stays tight.

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Zverev also arrives with considerable Grand Slam momentum. He won his first major title at Roland Garros this season and reached the Wimbledon final, while the withdrawal of Sinner has made him the No. 1 seed in New York.

Against a fully fit Alcaraz, Zverev would still face an enormous challenge. But against an opponent who has not played a competitive singles match since April, the German's ability to protect his service games and attack immediately could be particularly valuable. Alcaraz cannot afford to give Zverev a slow start.

Alcaraz and Zverev hug after facing each other

Ben Shelton: The American with momentum

Shelton represents another kind of threat: a player who has been improving rapidly and arrives with the confidence of a major hard-court title. The American won the Canadian Open for a second consecutive year during the North American swing, strengthening his credentials on the surface and giving him another important title heading into his home Grand Slam.

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His biggest weapon against Alcaraz is obvious. Shelton's serve can take the match away from the Spaniard before rallies even begin. Rather than allowing Alcaraz to build pressure through extended exchanges, Shelton can shorten points, attack the first ball and keep the scoreboard moving. That matters because Alcaraz's ability to gradually increase pressure on opponents is one of his greatest strengths.

Shelton is also no longer simply an exciting young American. His recent results have turned him into a genuine Grand Slam threat. If he serves at a high level, Alcaraz could find himself playing an uncomfortable match in which there are very few opportunities to establish rhythm. The American's left-handed game could make things even more complicated for an Alcaraz whose lack of competitive rhythm appears to be one of his main enemies heading into New York.

Arthur Fils: The new threat ready to break through

Fils might be the most fascinating name on the list because he represents exactly the kind of player who could take advantage of this moment. The Frenchman recently won the Cincinnati Open, the biggest title of his career, defeating Frances Tiafoe in the final and moving to a career-high No. 11 in the ATP Rankings. It was another step in a season that has seen Fils establish himself as one of the most dangerous young players on hard courts.

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His game is built around aggressive baseline tennis, heavy groundstrokes and the willingness to take the ball early. That could be particularly dangerous against Alcaraz if the Spaniard has not yet rediscovered his timing. Fils would have little reason to allow Alcaraz to dictate. He can attack the second serve, look for short balls and turn the match into a physical contest from the opening games.

There is also a broader storyline here. Fils and Shelton are part of a younger generation that has been moving closer to the established elite, while players such as Zverev have already made the jump. This US Open could provide another opportunity for that group to turn recent progress into a genuine Grand Slam breakthrough.

For Fils, defeating Alcaraz would be more than a big upset. It would be a statement that the new generation is ready to take over.

Arthur Fils and Carlos Alcaraz played each other

Five threats for Alcaraz

Potential threat	Current ranking	Potential Alcaraz round	Why it matters
Novak Djokovic	No. 5	Semifinal	The ultimate experience test, with Djokovic capable of turning Alcaraz's lack of match rhythm into a physical and mental battle.
Daniil Medvedev	No. 8	Semifinal	His deep court position, consistency and ability to absorb pace could make Alcaraz generate almost every attacking opportunity himself.
Ben Shelton	No. 9	Quarterfinal	The left-hander's serve and first-ball aggression could prevent Alcaraz from finding any rhythm, particularly after his five-month layoff.
Arthur Fils	No. 11	Quarterfinal	The Cincinnati champion arrives with major momentum and aggressive baseline tennis that could expose any timing issues in Alcaraz's comeback.
Alexander Zverev	No. 2	Final	The French Open champion and top seed can pressure Alcaraz with his serve and elite backhand, while his route gives him a potential advantage in reaching the final.

Alcaraz has the weapons — but so do his potential challengers

None of these five players needs Alcaraz to be far below his best. They simply need to make his return uncomfortable.

Djokovic can drag him into a battle of endurance and precision. Medvedev can take away his rhythm. Zverev can attack him with serve and first-ball aggression. Shelton can make the match about short points and scoreboard pressure. Fils can bring the intensity of a player who believes his time has arrived.

That is what makes Alcaraz's comeback so difficult to predict.

He has already shown that he can win the US Open and dominate Grand Slam stages. But this time, he will have to rediscover that level while competing against players with either proven Grand Slam pedigree or rapidly rising momentum.

After almost five months away, the defending champion may have the highest ceiling in the draw. The question is whether he can reach it before one of these five players finds a way to bring him back down.

Cristhián AvilaTennis Journalist

Cristhián Ávila is a tennis journalist based in Santiago, Chile, and has been part of the TennisUpToDate team since early 2023. He covers the ATP and WTA Tours as well as all four Grand Slams, producing breaking news, match reports, analysis, and regular liveblogs from major tournaments.

His reporting combines statistical analysis with clear explanation, helping readers understand tactical developments, player form, and broader storylines across the tour. Working fluently in both Spanish and English, Cristhián collaborates with an international editorial team and contributes to comprehensive global coverage. As part of his work, he has conducted interviews and media interactions with leading figures in the sport, including Caroline Wozniacki and John McEnroe.

In his journalism, Cristhián places strong emphasis on careful sourcing, editorial accuracy, and updating articles promptly when new, verified information becomes available. His coverage is grounded in research, context, and direct engagement with professional tennis.

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