"When she says she wants a piece of her, that’s a good thing mentally" - Brad Gilbert previews WTA Indian Wells final between Sabalenka and Rybakina

In the space of a few months, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet once more in a big final. This time, it is over in the USA, with the Indian Wells final set to be hotly contested between the two. Tennis Channel's Brad Gilbert sat down with Mark Petchey to discuss bot players in depth, while at the end saying who he thinks will be winning the third WTA 1000 title of 2026.

Both players came away from their semi-finals unscathed. Sabalenka showed her class in a 6-3, 6-4 triumph over Linda Noskova while Rybakina proved too good for the inforn Elina Svitolina, edging the Ukrainian 7-5, 6-4.

Gilbert was a firm believer that the two semi-finals went to script in terms of the result. "Yeah, I would think so. Rybakina’s match was a little closer at the end. She was way up in the second set finishing against Svitolina. But I think the hot conditions today favoured the big servers and first-strike tennis."

Both players serves are among the best on the tour. Sabalenka is able to muster up so much power from it that the returner struggles to even get close at times. Gilbert recognised that, but it was not the only thing about Sabalenka that stood out.

"What separates Sabalenka — besides her serve — is her plus-one game. I think she has the best forehand in the women’s game," he stated. "She can break serve, she had ten break points today, and she absolutely bludgeons opponents’ second serves. She gets early leads, and when she gets early leads she can take even bigger cuts at the ball."

Against Noskova, Sabalenka won 60% of her second serves, a ridiculous stat which got "She also does a great job on second-serve statistics — both protecting her own and attacking her opponent’s," Gilbert said. "Sixty percent for a guy is a great number — sixty percent for Aryna today is off the charts."

The last two times Sabalenka has stepped onto the court against Rybakina, it has ended painfully. In the final of the WTA Finals and Australian Open, the Kazakh stormed to glory in both of them, continuing a familiar trend of Sabalenka losing in finals.

It could be believable if she stated that she wanted to avoid Rybakina in this final, with previous events possibly emerging once more. Despite this, when speaking after her semi-final win, she relished the chance to come up against the two-time Grand Slam champion and confront her prior demons.

That was something Gilbert liked to hear. "Honestly, that’s the answer you want to hear," he acknowledged. "The typical response would be something like, 'I don’t care who wins.' But when she says she wants a piece of her, that’s a good thing mentally. She was probably expecting Rybakina to win anyway."

While the conditions may not be overly favourable to her, Rybakina is still making a huge impression in the Californian desert. She has only dropped one set in this tournament, bypassing the competition to fire her way into the final for a second time after coming out on top in 2023, against Sabalenka.

She will be hoping for the same again as Gilbert looks for any sign of weakness in her game. "I feel like she’s playing with a little more margin in her game," he commented. "If you’re coaching against her, you probably still want to go after the forehand — that’s the stroke that drives her game. But I think the forehand has improved a lot and she’s not going for quite as many outright winners with it. And I’ll tell you — her serve plus one is a thing of beauty."

The American tried to break down Rybakina's strokes. "The first thing is you don’t want to give that stroke a comfortable ball. Rybakina likes the ball in her pocket — she doesn’t like to move much. So you need to make her move and get the ball up on her so she has to take some risk."

That could be another area where Sabalenka could pounce. "I’d also work angles against her. She’s so comfortable when she’s striking without moving, but she’s not comfortable defending. And you definitely don’t want to give her a ball she can groove on. I’d go high to the backhand and hit hard and fast down the line to her forehand."

Sabalenka won their opening four matchups. Now, that gap has closed at a rapid pace with Rybakina winning three of the four previous meetings against the world number one.

"Sabalenka isn’t comfortable defending — and neither is Rybakina — but Rybakina’s first-strike tennis and serve plus one can make Sabalenka uncomfortable," Gilbert explained, delving into why this head-to-head record has turned on its head in recent times.

It could just all come down to the conditions. "Even when players know each other well, there are always variables. The courts are different — Saudi Arabia, Australia, now here in the desert. As a coach, I always want to look at what a player has been doing in their most recent matches. Are they hitting more down the line? Are they changing patterns? The data helps, but I also want to see what’s actually happening this week."

To conclude, Gilbert was pushed for a prediction. "My mind says Rybakina is on a roll — she’s beaten Sabalenka twice in a row and she’s been the best player lately," he pondered. "But I feel like Sabalenka is due in this tournament. I think there’ll be one tight set, maybe something like 6–3, and I’m going Sabalenka in straight sets."