ATP Race Update: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner extend lead – will the Top-8 stay unchanged until Turin?

With Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz as champions of the week, the ATP Race was updated following the conclusion of the China Open and Japan Open. This was an unusual week due to calendar changes that saw the finals played on Tuesday and Wednesday, which only served to increase the distance between the two leaders, both of whom have already qualified for the ATP Finals.

The start of the Shanghai Masters this Wednesday marks the most important event of the Asian Swing, being the penultimate Masters 1000 of the year. Stars are looking to accumulate points in the final part of the year to determine their year-end rankings in the Race, in addition to the eight qualifiers for the ATP Finals.

The ATP Race to Turin, unlike the traditional ATP Rankings, only considers points earned in the calendar year—since the first week of 2025. In this sense, Alcaraz (11,050) and Sinner (8,460) remain the clear leaders, while Alexander Zverev (4,280) closes the podium, sitting with practically half the points of the second-place player.

Taylor Fritz—a finalist in Tokyo—received a boost of over 300 points, allowing him to take 5th place and become the American No. 1 in the Race, displacing his compatriot Ben Shelton. Another American who saw significant advancement was 19-year-old Learner Tien, who entered the Top-50 for the first time and sits at No. 33 in the Race. This is a great position to aim for a high finish and ensure direct entry into major tournaments in 2026—and even contest a seeded spot in Grand Slam tournaments.

The final phase of the season continues, with six spots yet to be decided for the ATP Finals. Only Alcaraz and Sinner are mathematically qualified, although it is becoming increasingly evident who the eight players reaching Turin will be, given the wide gap between the 8th place player, Lorenzo Musetti (3,345), and the next player with realistic chances: Félix Auger-Aliassime (2,715).

The Canadian still harbors hopes of qualifying but would need significant campaigns in the remaining Masters 1000 events, with Shanghai being the first stop. Jack Draper's injury and his limited presence on the courts in the last couple of months have eased the fight for the Finals spot. The Brit has been displaced to 9th place and is ruled out for the rest of the season.

Those close to confirming their places in the Finals are Zverev (3rd, 4,280) and Novak Djokovic (4th, 4,190). Both will be among the favorites at the Shanghai Masters, and their participation in the Finals seems only a matter of time, as it is unlikely they will fall out of the Top-8, regardless of their results in the coming weeks. Currently, the ATP Finals Qualification cut is at 5,195 points (only reachable for Zverev this week if he wins the title), but the cut will progressively lower as fewer points remain to be disputed.

The four final spots for the 2025 ATP Finals would potentially be led by Americans Taylor Fritz (3,795) and Ben Shelton (3,720). Fritz benefited from a great week in Tokyo, adding 320 points to the Race and taking 5th place. The 27-year-old narrowly surpassed the injured Ben Shelton, who was out of competition last week, setting up a tight battle to finish the year as the American No. 1—a position Fritz has held for the last three seasons.

Alex de Miñaur (3,355) and Lorenzo Musetti (3,345) maintained their consistency this week, achieving several wins that allowed them to continue accumulating points, though at this point with less pressure regarding securing a place in Turin. The Australian reached the semifinals in Beijing, falling to eventual champion Jannik Sinner, while Musetti exited in the quarterfinals against Learner Tien—the tournament's subsequent runner-up.

The player who saw a significant ascent this week was precisely the teenager Tien, who reached his first ATP 500 final. Despite the loss to Sinner, it allowed him to advance into the Top-50 of the Race, sitting at No. 33 so far. The American will surely redefine his goals for the final part of the year, with the Top-30 just a couple of wins away. Reaching that mark would mean a significant portion of the year-end prize pool, guaranteed direct entry into ATP 500 tournaments, and the possibility of being seeded in upcoming Grand Slams.

Meanwhile, Jenson Brooksby was another player who surprised with a strong campaign, reaching the semifinals and earning 200 points. The 24-year-old re-enters the Top-50 after advancing 18 positions. After starting the year outside the Top-1000, Brooksby has been the player who has grown the most on the Tour in 2025 and will also prioritize accumulating points in the final part of the year to secure direct tournament entries, thus avoiding Challengers and Qualifiers as he did frequently this year.

Another player with good news is Casper Ruud (2,495), who added 200 points for his run to the semifinals in Tokyo and sits 11th in the Race, with good chances of finishing the year in the Top-10—considering Draper's injury. Daniil Medvedev also advanced after his semifinal appearance in Beijing, adding 200 points and entering the Top-20 of the Race—a low position for his own ambitions, but one that at least gives him more stability to mitigate the slide he has experienced in recent months.