ATP Race Update: Sinner chases Alcaraz for No.1 as Musetti feels the heat from Auger-Aliassime

he ATP Race to Turin has been updated ahead of the Paris Masters, with several players still competing for a spot in the ATP Finals. Currently, Lorenzo Musetti is in 8th place and is the most pressured to lose his spot, with less than 400 points separating him from an inspired Félix Auger-Aliassime, who is enjoying a notable run of form, with 19 wins in his last 23 matches – 8 of his last encounters – after winning the title at the European Open and reaching the quarter-finals at the Swiss Indoors.

Four players are already qualified for the ATP Finals – Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev – leaving four spots yet to be decided. The Americans Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton and the Australian Alex De Minaur need a strong campaign in Paris to secure their spot in the ATP Finals.

Sinner won the title at the Vienna Open, while Joao Fonseca did so at the Swiss Indoors, adding 500 points to the ATP ranking. Fonseca advanced from No. 41 to No. 24 – something that virtually guarantees him a seed at the upcoming Australian Open 2026, his main objective at the start of the year. Sinner, meanwhile, closes the gap on Alcaraz and keeps alive the chance of ending the year as No. 1.

Furthermore, players like Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina remain hopeful of qualifying for Turin – all outside the top-10, but who, if they dream of the Paris title, could surprise by taking a last-minute spot. In any case, it will be a difficult mission with 8 top-10 tennis players in the draw.

The champions of the week partially shifted things in the Race, with Sinner (9,010), who lifted his fourth trophy of the season and reached 21 consecutive indoor wins. The 4-time major champion defeated Alexander Zverev in the Vienna Open final, repeating the title won in 2023. Sinner added 500 points that keep him looking toward Alcaraz (11,050), with a difference of just over 2,000 points – still mathematically possible with a potential 2,500 by adding Paris and the ATP Finals.

At the same time at the Swiss Indoors, Basel, Joao Fonseca secured his second title of the season and first ATP 500, after defeating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-4. The 19-year-old star moved from outside the top-40 to No. 24 – an advance that virtually assures him a seed in Melbourne. The Brazilian also debuted at the Paris Masters with a victory over Denis Shapovalov and with only one more week of competition, virtually ensures he will finish the year in the top-30.

The Basel finalist, Davidovich Fokina, is left with a 0-5 record in finals – 4 of them played this season, even squandering match points. Nevertheless, the Spaniard manages to enter the top-15 for the first time in his career. Only obtaining the title could put him into a potential qualification for Turin, a similar situation to Bublik, Medvedev, and Ruud.

The player who remains with the highest chance of stealing a last-minute spot in Turin is Félix Auger-Aliassime (3,245), who from 9th place has been stalking Lorenzo Musetti (3,685) for weeks – currently the potential 8th qualifier for the ATP Finals. The Canadian needs at least the semi-finals and for Musetti to suffer an early defeat, or even a better result.

With a difference of 440 points, Paris awards 400 points to a semi-finalist, 650 points to the runner-up, and 1,000 to the champion. Adding to this is that Félix Auger-Aliassime will be the only one competing next week, as he is entered in the ATP 250 Metz Open, where he is the first seed and will have one last opportunity to earn points. Musetti will need to secure wins this week, or hope Félix runs out of steam in Paris.